This is going to be quick, because we have one hell of a game on our hands tonight and that deserves most of our attention. So all I’ll say is this:
NBA Playoffs Tuesday Night Viewing Guide: Relax. Joe Johnson And Carlos Boozer Will Still Get Paid
Relax, folks. Even with their awful playoff performances, Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer are going to get paid a lot of money this summer. They didn't cost themselves very much, even though they played awfully. They will still both be dramatically overpaid, and in the case of Johnson, someone stupid is still going to give him a max deal.
Yeah, yeah, I know, there might be a lockout in 2011. And yeah, Johnson and Boozer aren't LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. They may not even be Rudy Gay or David Lee. But there's just way too much money out there that has to be spent on somebody. The demand far outweighs the supply, even in a free agent class as decorated as this one.
As it stands, the following teams already have enough cap room to sign at least two max free agents. (Note: we’re assuming a cap figure of $56.1 million)
- Miami (enough for three if they trade Michael Beasley. Three!)
- New York (enough for two)
- New Jersey (enough for two)
- Chicago
- LA Clippers
- Minnesota
- Oklahoma City
- Sacramento
- Washington
Then, there are the teams under the cap, but not in a max salary range. That list could include Atlanta (if they don't re-sign Johnson themselves), Cleveland (if they don't re-sign LeBron), Golden State, Memphis, Milwaukee (if John Salmons opts out of the final year of his contract), Phoenix (if they don't re-sign Stoudemire) and Toronto (if they don't re-sign Bosh). And finally, I haven't even mentioned teams that are possible sign and trade partners outside of the ones already listed, like Dallas, Houston and maybe even San Antonio. Oh, and throw Utah in there in case they're actually thinking of bringing Boozer back.
In other words, the “demand” could potentially come from two-thirds of the team in the league. And here’s the other thing: never underestimate the level of desperation NBA GMs could face this summer. If you’re an NBA GM with the capability of doing something this summer, it’s going to take an incredible amount of discipline to resist splurging. Yes, even with the new CBA coming up. How can you tell your fans you’ve saved all this money for 2010 and then do nothing with it?
Again, we’re talking about NBA GMs. We’re talking about the same people who have overpaid guys for years. (And, in this specific case, we’re talking about guys like Ernie Grunfeld, David Kahn, Mikhail Prokhorov, Pat Riley and Mark Cuban. Oh, and the Clippers). They won’t be able to resist overpaying in possibly the most wide open free agent derby of all time.
So if you’re Joe Johnson’s or Carlos Boozer’s agent, don’t worry about your client’s performance. It probably didn’t make a difference anyway.
Onto tonight’s epic Game 5.
Rajon Rondo at LeBron James: Game 5, 8:00 p.m., TNT
Game 4 in one sentence: Rajon Rondo.
Problem the Cavaliers must solve to win: Rajon Rondo.
Problem the Celtics must solve to win again: Keep Rajon Rondo going.
[Okay, sorry, this is lame, even though Rajon Rondo was unbelievable on Sunday. Here’s a real preview].
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers: Game 5, 8:00 p.m., TNT
Game 4 in one sentence: Rajon Rondo had a performance for the ages, as the Celtics tied up this series with an inspired effort against an uninspiring Cavaliers team.
Problem the Cavaliers must solve to win: Obviously, they need to slow down Rajon Rondo. But how? Apparently, the solution will involve LeBron James guarding him.
After Game 4, LeBron James said it was time to "explore" having him guard Rajon Rondo. On Monday in Cleveland, Cavs coach Mike Brown said it was likely going to happen.
The Celtics don’t really care who guards Rondo, nor should they, because it’ll throw Rondo off his game to think about it too much.
And while we're here, can I just say that I'm skeptical of this? LeBron tried guarding the point guard in the Magic series last year, and that didn't work out so well. Obviously, Rondo is a whole different animal than Rafer Alston, but do you really want LeBron taking on this challenge? Celtics Blog compares it to the playground scenario where the star gets fed up with his teammates and just does everything himself.
LeBron is pulling the equivalent of the playground move where the best player on the other team is annoyed by the guy scoring all the points so he says with great bravado “I got this” and gets all pumped up to guard him. Can’t you just picture Rondo looking at him with a deadpan expression and blowing by him? I can.
I can too. Listen, it's not the man the Cavaliers have put on Rondo that's been the issue, it's how they've guarded him. As True Hoop's Henry Abbott writes, Anthony Parker is a very good defender, but when you ask him to play five feet off Rondo in hopes that Rondo shoots, you're basically giving Rondo all this space to do whatever he wants. He can now get a full head of steam when attacking you, and because he's so quick, he can elude shotblockers for easy scores. Not to mention that he can deliver all sorts of passes easily because nobody is impairing his vision. Instead of putting LeBron on Rondo, how about actually putting Parker on Rondo? How about trying to play Rondo close instead of playing five feet off him?
If that fails, go to LeBron. But at least try that first.
Problem the Celtics must solve to win again: Paul Pierce is having a terrible series offensively, shooting just 16 for 50 and averaging just 11 points a game. He's got a tough job guarding James, but still, the Celtics need much more out of him if they want to pull the upset.
Totally inconsequential thing I want to see happen: Some rogue Celtics fan heckle Joey Crawford, because it’s ridiculous that he’s working this game. More on that story here.
Prediction: A tight game that Cleveland wins, thanks to a few questionable calls. Cavaliers 99, Celtics 95.
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