I don’t come into these things with my eye on a theme. I always fancy I’m going to choose five separate, unrelated numbers from five separate, unrelated teams. Then I don’t. Below, get a glimpse into how my brain works as you identify distinct trains of thought. By the way, you should tell me now if I talk too much about the Padres, because the Padres are amazing, and I never want to not talk about them.
Five Numbers: Celebrating The Awesomeness Of Strasburg, The Extreme Awesomeness Of Heyward, And More
Onward!
1) -25.5
I was on the radio a month and a half ago. This was before the season got started, and the host and I were going around the Major Leagues, predicting winners and surprises in every division. When we got to the NL West, the host asked who I thought would win, and I said it'd likely come down to a battle between the Rockies and the Dodgers. The host agreed, and we moved on to the next topic.
I don't bring this up because I was different. I bring this up because I was the same. I gave the same answer as everybody else. Before the year got started, it really did look like the NL West would come down to the Dodgers or the Rockies, with the D-Backs a possibility depending on the health of Brandon Webb.
Now it’s the middle of May and LA is sitting at .500, four and a half back of San Diego. Needless to say, things haven’t quite gone as planned. Though the offense has been good, there’s been criticism of pretty much everyone, as fans of the team and people closer to it try to identify what the problem is. Okay, Manny’s been out. That’s something. There’s been trouble at the back of the rotation and the middle relief. That’s something, too. But me, I think more attention ought to be paid to LA’s team defense, as the popular defensive statistic Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) places their glovework at a league-worst 25.5 runs below average.
It’s not just UZR, either. Another statistic, Defensive Runs Saved, puts them at a league-worst 21 runs below average. The team has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .309, against a league rate of .296. The bottom line is that the Dodgers have been hurt by their defense to a tremendous degree, and it’s served as kind of a silent killer through a forgettable first month and a half.
One would expect that things won't carry on to this degree all season long. Matt Kemp, in particular, is better than his early showing. With Kemp being flanked by Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier, though, the Dodgers are likely to keep on having trouble with fly balls, and that could be a problem as the team goes on to face some surprising competition.
2) 4.2
Let's stick in the NL West for a moment. In the NL West, the Dodgers have struggled, in large part due to the somewhat ‘hidden' effect of their defense. Meanwhile, the Padres have surprised. How have the Padres surprised? They've succeeded for a number of reasons, but in keeping with the theme, they've succeeded in large part due to the somewhat ‘hidden' effect of their bullpen.
The Padres bullpen is propped up by Heath Bell and a bunch of guys you probably haven't heard of. Just because you haven't heard of them, though, doesn't mean they aren't getting the job done. Aside from Bell, Tim Stauffer, Luke Gregerson, Edward Mujica, and Mike Adams have offered tremendous support, as the bullpen's been so good it's effectively cut games short.
Bullpens are generally composed of six or seven arms. However, not every reliever gets a ton of action, or a ton of action in close games. For our purposes, let's limit the meaningful part of a bullpen to the top five relievers. What happens when you look at each team's top five relievers? The Padres come out leading the league with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.2. In second place are the Astros, all the way down at 3.1.
Those five guys strike out better than a batter an inning, and on top of that, they seldom issue a free pass. The end result is a group ERA of 2.11, with Bell, Stauffer, and Gregerson all coming in under 2. ERA, of course, isn’t a very good metric, especially this early in the year, but it gets the point across. This Padres bullpen - the important part of this Padres bullpen - has been nothing short of sensational.
It’s not all smooth sailing. Stauffer’s going to be out for several weeks after getting an appendectomy, which deals this unit a blow. Still, there’s enough talent here to cover for his absence. While the Padres may not stick around the race all year long, it’s important to understand how they’ve gotten where they are, and this shutdown bullpen has been an incredible asset.
3) 2
Now we’re going to leave the NL West, but stay in the bullpen. And we’re going to stay in the bullpen so we can talk about one of the most terrifying reliever developments the league has seen in quite some time.
Everybody knows Joel Zumaya. Joel Zumaya's the guy with the 100mph fastball. Joel Zumaya's the guy that hurt himself playing Guitar Hero. Joel Zumaya's the guy who fits the classic mold of being a thrower instead of a pitcher, the guy with the million dollar arm but a ten cent head, the guy with all the heat in the world but no idea where it's going.
Everybody knows Joel Zumaya. Or at least, they know that Joel Zumaya.
They may not know this Joel Zumaya.
This Joel Zumaya still throws the 100mph fastball. Zumaya leads the Majors with a 99.1mph average heater, with Daniel Bard coming in second at 97.8. Through all the injuries, the stuff's still there. But now there's a difference: this Joel Zumaya throws strikes. He throws 66% strikes, to be precise, which is better than the league average, and what happens when you get a guy with that stuff and that control is that he doesn't walk a lot of hitters. Which is why, after 13 appearances spanning 20 innings, Zumaya's walk total stands at 2.
2, in 20 innings, with 24 strikeouts. Last year, he had 22 walks and 30 strikeouts in 31 innings. The year before, he had 22 and 22 in 23.1. Suffice to say that something's changed. Zumaya, at just 25 years of age, appears to have figured a little something out, and he's become a huge reason why the Tigers remain alive in an otherwise lopsided AL Central.
Outside of Zumaya, the Tiger bullpen has a K/BB of 1.2. They haven’t allowed a lot of runs, but they’ve been getting by by the skin of their teeth. Zumaya’s been a true fireman, though, and as long as he remains healthy and effective, that team could have enough weapons to stay relevant for longer than many expected.
Stephen Strasburg is ready. He's ready. I know I'm not exactly breaking big news, here, but on the heels of Strasburg's six innings of no-hit ball for AAA Syracuse Wednesday night, allow me to share with you his minor league performance to date between AA and AAA:
34 innings
.176 OBP against
40 strikeouts
8 walks
0 home runs
14 hits
68% groundballs
Strasburg doesn’t allow much contact. On his contact, he doesn’t allow many hits. Of his hits, it’s almost impossible to take one for extra bases.
Everybody knows why Strasburg is still in the minors. It's a valid reason, if a shady one. Salary and service time are important, far too important for a team like the Nationals to ignore. But those same Nationals are currently 19-15, 1.5 games behind the Phillies in the East and tied with the Giants and the Reds in what will, a few months from now, become the Wild Card standings. The Nationals, rather improbably, are in it. And they're in it with their best starting pitcher dominating the competition in AAA.
The Nats are probably lucky to be where they are. The offense has been middle-of-the-road and the pitching staff has been subpar, with the fewest strikeouts in the National League. Three of their current starting pitchers have racked up at least as many walks as they have strikeouts. But these games and these wins are already in the bank, and the Nationals have a real opportunity here to draw some excitement. If they can hang around until Strasburg finally arrives, then there’s going to be a buzz in the air the likes of which this team has never seen.
5) 413.5
And in closing, we move from one standout prospect to another. For the last several months, there's only been one guy who could compete with the hype surrounding Stephen Strasburg. And that's been Jason Heyward, who I'm pretty sure cemented the NL Rookie of the Year and a handful of Hall of Fame votes before he ever played a game. Heyward and Strasburg spent all winter and all spring competing for headlines, and it's only continued into the season. The only difference is that, while Strasburg's been dominating the minors, Heyward's been lighting it up in the big leagues.
It’s hard to say what’s been most impressive. The seamless jump from AA? The ability to hit for average? The ability to hit for power? The 18 walks in 111 trips to the plate? The flair for the dramatic? When you’re trying to isolate the most impressive aspect of Jason Heyward’s game, there’s a lot to choose from, and it’s only been a month and a half.
Me, though, I’m going to focus on the power. And I’m going to focus on the power because Heyward doesn’t turn 21 until August, and power is usually one of the last skills to develop. Hitters tend to get a little bigger and a little stronger as they enter their mid-20s. It’s all part of the process of filling out. Heyward has either already filled out, or he’s going to develop into some kind of superhuman mashing machine. Because, at 20 years old, Jason Heyward’s average home run has traveled 413.5 feet.
For reference, the Major League average is about 394. Heyward's early average, when compared to marks other guys put up in 2009, puts him in the company of sluggers like Ryan Howard, Mark Reynolds, and Adam Dunn. In short, he's beat the crap out of the ball, and perhaps appropriately, his first of the season - in his first at bat - was the longest, at 476 feet. That's actually held up as the longest home run hit in the Majors to date.
It’s not just that one home run, though. Of Heyward’s eight dingers, five have traveled at least 420 feet. He’s hit homers to left, he’s hit homers to center, and he’s hit homers to right. Jason Heyward doesn’t only have power to all fields - he has significant power to all fields, and if he weren’t a celebrity, he wouldn’t yet be old enough to drink.
A month and a half into the first big league season of Jason Heyward’s career, it’s hard to say that things could’ve gone any better. He’s been everything he was billed as and more, and no matter which way the rest of the team goes through the rest of the summer, Heyward’s just going to keep piling up feat after feat. Believe.
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