The first round of the NBA Playoffs is in the books, so before we get into tonight’s game, I wanted to quickly talk about five things we learned in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. I’m hoping these aren’t completely obvious things. I’m also hoping these things make sense.
NBA Playoffs Monday Night Viewing Guide: Five Lessons From The First Round
1. Brandon Jennings may not be the Rookie of the Year, but he is a damn good player
It's a bit cliche, but the true mark of a prime-time player is someone who steps up their game in the playoffs, and Jennings did that. His PER and true shooting percentage were significantly better in the playoffs than they were in the regular season, and more importantly, the dude handled the ball unbelievably well, turning it over on a miniscule 5.7 percent of his possessions despite having to make play after play after play for his team. It was Jennings' ability to step up that helped allow the Bucks to nearly shock a superior Hawks team before eventually falling in seven.
This does not mean Jennings should have won Rookie of the Year over Tyreke Evans or Stephen Curry. Two key facts poke a hole in the Jennings for ROY argument. First, the Bucks were heading toward a losing season this year until the trade deadline deal for John Salmons, so the winning argument doesn't carry much weight. Second, the Bucks were heading toward a winning season last year before Andrew Bogut got hurt in January, which hurts the "Jennings is the only newcomer and they won 12 more games" argument.
Nevertheless, Jennings was clearly the best rookie on the league’s biggest stage, so he has that going for him. I’m guessing we’ll see a ton of improvement from him next season.
2. Oklahoma City's supporting cast isn't that great right now
A couple days ago, I was asked who among LeBron James and Kevin Durant had worse teammates. The person who asked me figured I would say LeBron, since the prevailing thought was LeBron's teammates have consistently let him down over the years. But after watching Durant's supporting cast against the Lakers, I think we might need to rethink that. Obviously, Russell Westbrook was great, but Thabo Sefolosha and Jeff Green both had dreadful series and Nick Collison and Nenad Kristic struggled with the Lakers' length. James Harden and Serge Ibaka had mostly good moments, but were inconsistent. The failure of Durant's teammates to step up was a key factor in them losing the series. Two players simply cannot knock off the Lakers on their own.
The good news for the Thunder is that they'll get better with more experience. The bad news is that they aren't there yet.
3. Atlanta's switching defense is good for the regular season, but not for the playoffs
Sure, the Hawks got it together to knock off the pesky Bucks in Games 6 and 7, but the only reason the series was that close is because the Bucks took advantage of the Hawks’ strategy to switch every screen. It took a couple games, but Jennings and others attacked the Hawks off the dribble and got to the basket way more than they should have. The Hawks didn’t change their strategy because, well, they played 82 games that way, so they didn’t know how to defend normally.
More than anything, this proves the difference between the regular season and the playoffs. In the regular season, teams don't have enough time to scout you, so you can catch a team off guard by being different. In the playoffs, though, you're only playing one team, so you can focus all your attention on dealing with their different style. That's been Atlanta's problem now for the last couple of years, and it'll be a big issue against the Magic next round.
4. Dallas lost because they weren't as good as the Spurs
The Spurs entered the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league, despite closing with a difficult schedule. They had the second-best point differential in the West, behind only the Jazz. They were peaking at the right time and getting more out of their supporting players. So really, even though the Mavericks were the higher seed, they probably weren't the better team. Let's not call that series an upset.
5. Offense matters as much as defense if you want to advance in the playoffs
Here are the offensive efficiency rankings of the eight remaining playoff teams:
1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 15.
Average: 7
Here are the defensive efficiency rankings:
3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 13, 22 (the Suns, who have defended at a much higher level since the all-star break)
Average: 9
Bottom line: to advance in the NBA Playoffs, you have to be good on both ends of the floor. The defense-only teams (Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami) are gone, as are the offense-only teams (Denver, Toronto). Balance wins championships.
Speaking of those eight remaining teams - onto tonight!
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers: Game 2, 8:00 p.m., TNT
Game 1 in one sentence: The Cavaliers stormed back in the third period to take control of the game, as the Celtics bench fell apart.
Problem the Celtics must solve to win: Their bench play, particularly in that third quarter, was atrocious. The Celtics got away from everything they did in the first two and a half quarters, and they never got that rhythm back. Obviously, the entire bench unit is the culprit here, but Rasheed Wallace was particularly awful. So awful that it appears Doc Rivers has finally had enough.
“He has to play better, bottom line,” Doc Rivers said Sunday. “He has to play better defense. The offense will come but he has to be a better defender. We can’t wait. He has to play better.”
It's nice to know Rivers is finally seeing what most Celtics fans had seen all season. If I'm a Celtics fan, I'm hoping Rivers finally benches Sheed. Shelden Williams would be a better option anyway.
Problem the Cavaliers must solve to win: Cleveland doesn’t win this game without Mo Williams’ play in the third quarter, so I mean this as no slight to him. But Rajon Rondo dominated him in Game 1, and that has to change. The Cavs need to guard him better, because if they don’t, Rondo has the potential to dominate the flow of the game like few in this league can.
Totally inconsequential thing I want to see happen: Glen Davis arguing more foul calls. Perhaps like this (photoshop via Both Teams Played Hard):
C'mon son indeed.
Prediction: Boston had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. I expect a much better performance out of Cleveland’s starters this time around. Cavaliers 98, Celtics 88.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns: Game 1, 10:30 p.m., TNT
We're going to do this a little differently, since the series hasn't started.
When we last saw them ...: The Spurs were holding off a late Mavericks push to close out that series in 6, and the Suns were pulling away from the undermanned Blazers late in the fourth quarter of Game 6.
Regular season: Phoenix won the series 2-1. San Antonio's only win came when Jason Richardson missed a breakaway dunk that would have tied the game.
Why San Antonio will win: Because nobody will stop Tim Duncan, with Robin Lopez injured, and the Suns don't have an answer if the Spurs play Tony Parker, George Hill and Manu Ginobili at the same time.
Why Phoenix will win: Because the Spurs don't have the length to stop Amare Stoudemire like Portland did, and because their bench is better.
What will provide comedic relief?: Watching Lou Amundson’s hair as he battles for offensive rebounds.
Prediction for tonight: Phoenix’s bench will bail out the Suns tonight and they’ll rally for a tight win that’ll give them the confidence they need to win the series. Suns 110, Spurs 105.
Prediction for the series: Suns in 7. Lopez will come back to neutralize Duncan eventually, and the Spurs’ defense, which was shaky at times in the regular season, will have no answer for Amare. I’m always wrong about Spurs-Suns though, so tread carefully.
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