The Spurs Do Not Shoot Three-Pointers Well Anymore

The San Antonio Spurs have been known for three things over the past decade: defense, the Big 3 and three-point shooting. For the most part, they still have the first two attributes this season. Their defense has struggled at times, particularly in this series, but it’s still pretty stout, and the Big 3 of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan is still capable of getting it done when it matters most.

But the three-point shooting? For the most part, that’s gone. The Spurs are shooting only 31 percent from three-point range in the playoffs, and that’s including George Hill’s explosion from deep in Game 4 of the Spurs’ first-round series against the Mavericks. Take away Hill’s 5-6 performance in that game, and the Spurs as a team have made only 29 of their 109 three-point attempts in the playoffs. Last night’s 39-percent performance was actually the second-best one for the Spurs in the playoffs. They’ve had a 4-19 game from three (Game 1 vs. Phoenix), a a 3-16 performance (Game 5 vs. Dallas) and, most remarkably, an 0-7 performance (Game 4 vs. Dallas). Could you ever imagine a Spurs team that went an entire game without making a three?

You couldn’t. Instead, you’d imagine a scenario similar to the one Spurs blog 48 Minutes of Hell describes here:

Imagine this familiar, if faded, scenario: Tim Duncan gets the ball on the low block, and the opposing defense is stretched in all directions because they have to stay at home on the Spurs’ shooters. You know, guys like Brent Barry, Michael Finley, Steve Kerr, and Bruce Bowen. Tim Duncan has his choice of options, because he has his choice of space. If the defense decides to collapse, Duncan simply sends the ball to an open shooter, who, at a minimum, gets a clean look at the basket. In previous years, this might describe every third Spurs possession.

In previous years.

This isn’t an execution issue either. The real issue is that the Spurs don’t have enough three-point shooters anymore. Antonio McDyess’ range is 18 feet. Tony Parker is not a three-point shooter, and neither is Richard Jefferson. Hill is streaky, and, honestly, so is Manu Ginobili. The only real three-point shooters on the roster are Matt Bonner, who is struggling, and Roger Mason, who never plays. Without those three-point shooters, suddenly Tim Duncan, Ginobili and Parker have less room to operate. In the past, if you double-teamed those guys, you risked getting killed by an open three. Now? The risk isn’t there as much, because the spacing isn’t nearly as good. It’s no coincidence that Duncan, Parker and Ginobili have been so uneven in the playoffs.

The problem is best illustrated by the switch from Bruce Bowen to Jefferson. When the Spurs acquired Jefferson this summer, the move was universally praised because people figured Jefferson would provide some much-needed athleticism to an older Spurs roster. Instead, he’s been a misfit, because he just won’t shoot the corner three, the shot that the Spurs have been so successful exploiting over the years. It’s not that he’s really terrible at it - a glance at his hotspots data proves he is at least capable of making it - it’s more that he refuses to shoot it. Jefferson would rather take a step in and make the 18-footer, which is really bad for San Antonio’s spacing and makes their offense much less efficient.

Last night’s game is a good microcosm of the Richard Jefferson problem. Jefferson himself had a very strong game, one of his strongest of the playoffs. He scored 18 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and was more aggressive than he was in Game 1. But his production also came with a bit of a cost. The 18 points came on 13 shot attempts, which isn’t all that efficient, and frankly, is about as good as you can hope for when the majority of your shots are 18-footers. Meanwhile, Ginobili took only 11 shots, and the Suns swarmed Duncan more in the second half after Duncan dominated in the first half. Finally, during crunch time, the Spurs weren’t able to space the floor well enough to get good shots, because Jefferson was uncomfortable camping out in the corner. There was one key play late in the game where the Suns left Jefferson all alone, wide open for a three. But instead of standing there and shooting it, Jefferson caught the ball one step inside the three-point line, which enabled the Suns to close out on him properly. Jefferson took the shot anyway and it missed badly. What could have been a big three instead turned into a backbreaking missed two.

Worse, it’s tough to figure out how the Spurs can fix this problem. They could sit Jefferson and play Matt Bonner, but Jefferson kept them in the game in Game 2 and Bonner is really struggling. They could play Keith Bogans, but Bogans can’t shoot either. They could play conventionally, but that hurts their spacing and their defensive matchups against the smaller Suns. In other words, this is a problem even a great coach like Gregg Popovich might not be able to solve.

All season, it appeared the Spurs’ front office made a rare error this summer with the Jefferson trade. The team is paying for it now when it matters most.