Did you hear the news? The Yankees are looking for a starting pitcher.
C.J. Wilson No. 1 Free-Agent Pitcher, But Who’s No. 2?
Did you hear the other news? There aren’t many good starting pitchers on the open market this winter.
Which makes this little bit from T.R. Sullivan less than super-newsworthy:
Yankees manager Brian Cashman said on ESPN radio today that C.J. Wilson is the best pitcher available out there on the free agent market
"I'd say it's fair to say C.J. Wilson is probably the best pitcher on the marketplace right now since CC Sabathia's been taken out and retained here," said Cashman. "I don't think it's a stretch to tell anybody that he's the most attractive candidate."
Nope, not a stretch at all. Since becoming a starter in 2010, Wilson’s got a 3.14 ERA and a 142 ERA+ that ranks sixth or seventh in the majors, almost exactly the same as Sabathia’s. I’m not convinced that Wilson is quite that good ... but when you consider his home ballpark, he’s been excellent over more than 400 innings.
If we assume his postseason performance last month was anomalous, he’s obviously the best free-agent pitcher. And that Wilson’s a lefty who’s stingy with home runs makes him even more attractive to Brian Cashman.
I was wondering, though: Who’s number two?
Scanning a list of potential free agents, I came up with five names:
I don’t mean to suggest there aren’t others worth a look or a flier or a plane ticket to the Grapefruit League. But all five of these pitchers have been mostly healthy and mostly effective in recent seasons, right? Which carries a pretty hefty price tag, these days. You might like Rich Harden, but leaving money aside you’re not going to take him ahead of Buehrle, are you?
Obviously, Vázquez and Oswalt are both relatively old. But they also seem to have something left in the tank. In 14 second-half starts, Vázquez went 8-3 with a 2.14 ERA and a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio. Actually, Oswalt’s not really so old at all; he’s 34 and pitched great ball in 2010. His strikeout rate was way down in 2011, but he was hurt for a while and figures to bounce back, at least some.
Mark Buehrle ... He extended his streak of seasons with at least 30 starts to 12. He won 13 games for the third straight season. All of his ratios were basically dead even with his career numbers. Every time Buehrle struggles for a few weeks, people say he’s getting old and his fastball just isn’t fast enough any more for him to get by. But then at the end of the season his numbers are the same as always. No, he won’t pitch forever. Four or five more seasons like this, though? I wouldn’t bet against him.
You’re not going to get four or five good seasons out of Hiroki Kuroda, because he turns 37 this winter. But he never seems to get enough credit, maybe because he’s got a losing record. Doesn’t mean he can’t pitch. He might be the best pitcher on this list in 2012.
Speaking of the list, I’m including Edwin Jackson only because he’s so young, just turned 28. Jackson’s ERA+ over the last two seasons is 100: dead average. I’m sure there are pitching coaches who think there’s still some untapped potential there, and there certainly might be. But do you want to risk (say) $40 million to find out? I sort of doubt it. Jackson, who’s pitched for five teams in the last four seasons, is a journeyman. An innings-eater. A perfectly useful No. 3 or 4 starter who perhaps deserves a long-term contract but not a great deal of money.
Assuming a three-year contract, I would rank them like this:
1. Buehrle
2. Oswalt
3. Vázquez
4. Kuroda
5. Jackson
With a lot of wiggle room among those top four.
See More:
