Arsenal and Barcelona are again meeting in Champions League, though whereas they met in the quarterfinals last year, the Gunners' runners-up finish in group had them eligible to be drawn against the Blaugrana in this year's Round of 16. And of course, that happened. Like us, the Soccer Gods can't resist a match-up of these two styles, even if it means Arsenal, one of the world's top four or five teams, will be out of the competition far too early. After all, is there anything to make us believe this year's result will be different?
UEFA Champions League Preview: Arsenal Vs. Barcelona
If anything, Barcelona looks stronger. They've added David Villa. Andres Iniesta, who played only four minutes in last year's tie, is healthy and scoring more goals than ever. Neither Carles Puyol nor Gerard Piqué played in last year's second leg, while Lionel Messi (inexplicably) continues to get better.
Which is not to say Arsenal was without limitations last season. Robin van Persie was out, having various lamb organs applied to his busted ankle. Cesc Fabregas broke his leg in the first leg. Mikael Silvestre had to play, and nothing says limitations like 'Silvestre to feature in starting XI.'
The biggest advantage Arsenal had in last year's tie, one the helped them build a 3-2 lead 100 minutes into the match, was the element of surprise provided by Theo Walcott. It seems strange to suggest that anybody would have been surprised by Walcott, who was then four years into his stardom, but when the Gunners' winger came off the bench in the first leg, with his team down 2-0 at home, he turned the match. He scored Arsenal's first goal and was never adequately managed in a leg that, after a late Fábregas penalty kick, ended 2-2.
In the second leg, Walcott started. But so did Eric Adibal, Pep Guardiola's first choice left back who missed the first leg, injured. Perhaps it was the French international's inclusion, perhaps it was something else, but Theo didn't even register a shot at the Nou Camp, and after four Lionel Messi goals, Barcelona was through, 6-3. Walcott's speed no longer surprised, and although an early Nicklas Bendtner goal gave fuel to the idea Arsenal had something special in store, Messi eventually settled the match.
And that match that may have marked a turning point in Lionel Messi’s career. Already considered the best player in the world, Messi had yet to have that single, transcendent performance before Barcelona hosted Arsenal last spring. He’d always played well in big matches - braces in Clasicos and goals in Champions League finals - but his resume still lacked a the kind of undeniable performance that could be used as ammunition in a ‘best of all time’ debate. Then, with his team down 3-2 in their Champions League quarterfinal, Messi found a there-to unknown gear, almost single-handedly lifting his team into the semifinals, the type of performance that will be conveyed to the next generation of fans with ‘I remember when’ stories (or commands to look it up on YouTube).
Including that match, Messi has scored 53 goals in his last 46 Barcelona matches, a rate which is amongst the most impressive in the game’s history when you consider it’s length as was as the level of competition he’s faced. But underscoring the uptick the stretch has represented, Messi only scored 38 goals in his preceding 46 matches. Put another way, in the last year Messi has increased his already prodigious goal scoring rate by 39 percent.
Combine Messi's threat with that of David Villa (long thought the best striker in Spain), Pedro Rodríguez, Iniesta and somebody they call Xavi, and it would seem Arsenal needs major defensive reinforcements to have a better chance this year than last. Unfortunately, Arsenal not only lack major reinforcements (unless you consider Sebastien Squillaci and Laurent Koscielny major) but will also be without their two best defenders. Thomas Vermaellen is out until March, while Bacary Sagna is suspended for the first leg. Compounding problems at the back, first choice `keeper Lukasz Fabianski is out for the season.
All those absences will increase the pressure on Johan Djourou, set to partner Koscielny. The 24-year-old Swiss international has played an increasingly important role in the middle of Arsenal's defense, helping to offset some of the troubles Koscielny and Squillaci have had during their first Premier League seasons. Against Barcelona, a team not afraid to try and pass their way through the heart of an opponent's defense, Djourou will have to overcome his lack of time in big matches and become one of the least experienced center halves to succeed against Barcelona. Whether it was Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic four years ago, John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho after that, Lucio and Walter Samuel in last year's semis or Rubin Kazan's Cesar Navas and Roman Sharonov, it's always been an experienced central defense that's slowed down Barcelona, something that doesn't bode will for Djourou and Koscielny.
At the other end of the pitch, Arsenal will be bolstered by the health of Samir Nasri, the Gunners' best player in 2010-11 but somebody who was a doubt after incurring a hamstring injury last weekend. He's likely to feature in attack with van Persie and Walcott, all of whom will take their cues from Fábregas, playing against the team that trained him, only eight months after a summer saga that nearly saw the Arsenal captain move to the Nou Camp. Now, the thinking is Fábregas is a year-and-a-half away from a return home, a move that could be hastened if he were to lead his club past Barcelona, giving Barça further reason to pursue him.
In order for him to do that, Fábregas will have to outperform his counterpart, Xavi, as well as offset the advantages Barcelona have at almost every other position. For all the highlights Nasri's been responsible for this year, he's no Messi. Van Persie's no Villa. Jack Wilshire's far from being Andrés Iniesta (with the two playing different roles), and Arsene Wenger would gladly swap Alex Song for Sergio Busquets.
Extend the comparisons across the back and into goal and you have an illustration of what we’ve known for years. Arsenal is a version of Barcelona, though a pale one. Whereas at one time it took a goalkeeper’s early sending off to translate that difference onto the pitch, now the difference is far more evident. While Arsenal has one of the four or five best teams in the world, Barcelona has one of the four or five best teams of all time. At worst.
And to know how that translates onto Wednesday’s match, just consider last year’s result and factor in the changes. Over two legs last year, Barcelona was three goals better than Arsenal. This year, they’re even better, while Arsenal will be missing three of their choice back five.
The first leg is in London, so we may see Arsenal take a stand. But we may also see Barcelona more vigilant than they were last year. Regardless, there’s no reason beyond the brilliant randomness of sport to think this year will be different than last.
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