This is the first part of a series with second-half predictions for each team in baseball. They’re probably going to be wrong, but that’s baseball’s fault. It’s a weird game. I would never let my daughter date baseball -- it’s a sneaky, duplicitous sport, and it shouldn’t be trusted.
Predictions For The AL West In The Second Half
The Rangers and Angels have moved away from the rest of the AL West. What can we look forward to as the season concludes?
First up, the AL West:
Prediction #1: The Rangers win the division
This is because I fear change, mostly. But as far as five-deep rotations go, Texas is pretty underrated. Actually, they're one of the most balanced teams in baseball -- they don't have any absolute sinkholes in the lineup or rotation, which is pretty hard to manage.
It’s a complete team, and the flaws they do have are comparatively easy to fix. It’s not like they’re heading into the trade deadline saying, “Well, all we need are four good hitters and a starting rotation, and we’ll be rolling!” The team’s biggest weakness is in the bullpen, and that can be addressed with a trade or two.
Prediction #2: The Angels will not win the division
Tough to go out on a limb like that after the first prediction, but here we are. My problem with the Angels is one of trust. As in, here are three players who I don't trust in the second-half:
It’s not like those guys were all-world in the first half, but they were each competent at the plate. Trumbo showed great power, Bourjos got on base just enough to utilize his speed, and Aybar was more of the hitter he was in 2009 rather than 2010. But the trio walked 40 times in the first half to 185 strikeouts, which is a pretty ugly ratio. They’re a part of an Angels offense that featured seven starters with an OPS+ over 100 -- and the offense is a big reason why the Angels are challenging the Rangers. And I don’t trust them to stay competent.
Though I do trust Jeff Mathis and Vernon Wells in their own special little ways. So there's that.
It's not like the Angels are going to turn into the Giants overnight at the plate, but I don't think they're going to be a league-average or better offense for much longer, and it's not like Dan Haren and Jered Weaver can be any better.
Also, the Rangers let the Giants win a World Series, while the Angels did not. I always factor those bits of courtesy into scientific predictions like this.
Prediction #3: The Mariners will not challenge the 1910 Chicago White Sox for worst team batting average in AL history
Oh, but they'll come close. Batting average isn't good for a whole lot these days, but it's hard to unlearn the truisms most of us grew up with -- .300 good, .200 bad, and so on.
So with that in mind, check out the current Mariners who have had more than 100 at-bats with the team this year:
| Pos | AB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| RF | Ichiro Suzuki* | 374 | .270 |
| 2B | Adam Kennedy* | 243 | .259 |
| SS | Brendan Ryan | 282 | .252 |
| 1B | Justin Smoak# | 297 | .229 |
| 2B | Jack Wilson | 124 | .226 |
| C | Miguel Olivo | 265 | .223 |
| DH | Jack Cust* | 204 | .211 |
| LF | Carlos Peguero* | 141 | .199 |
| CF | Franklin Gutierrez | 150 | .187 |
| 3B | Chone Figgins# | 262 | .183 |
| CF | Michael Saunders* | 137 | .168 |
| Team Totals | 3001 | .224 | |
| Rank in 14 AL teams | 12 | 38 |
No, it’s not a table of wOBA, and it really doesn’t tell you everything you need to know, but wow! That part of you that remembers looking at the back of baseball cards is impressed with that list. The .250 guys are the ones who get all the chicks. The .220 guys think, “This stinks, but at least I’m not a .180 guy.” And the .180 guys are like, “Well, crap.”
They can't get worse, and Dustin Ackley will only help, so they won't challenge any records. But, wow.
Prediction #4: The A's offense will move from "wretched" to "not good"
Just as the Angels had a bunch of guys I didn't trust, the A's have a bunch of guys who really shouldn't be this bad. David DeJesus? Not this bad. Josh Willingham? Not this bad. Cliff Pennington? Not this bad. I'd even wager that Hideki Matsui, despite being 78 years old, probably has a little life in his bat yet. They're not going to be good, mind you, but they'll improve more than a little, and the pitching will remain strong.
Also, one of their starting pitchers will spontaneously combust on the mound. Poof.
Predicted final standings:
1. Texas
2. Los Angeles
3. Oakland
4. Seattle
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