The Hugo and Nebula Award-winning series continues, as we take a look at second-half predictions for every team in baseball. Up now, the AL East:
Predictions For The AL East In The Second Half
A look at the second half for the American League East, which looks like a showdown between the Red Sox and Yankees. Again.
Prediction #1: The Boston Red Sox will win the AL East even though they were eliminated on April 15th
Remember those innocent days, when the Red Sox were 2-10, and they were officially eliminated from playoff contention? Well, they must have had some high-falutin' lawyer doing lawyer tricks to get them back in the race. There's no way that a supremely talented team can come back from a bad couple of weeks in April on their own.
Carl Crawford and J.D. Drew have been bookends of disappointment, but at least one of them should rebound. If there's a weakness on the team, it's the Lack-end of the rotation, but Tim Wakefield and Andrew Miller have been nifty backup plans after the implosion of Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey, and if the Red Sox aren't comfortable with Wakefield or Miller, they can always work the trade market. I hear Barry Zito could be available for six or seven top prospects.
Prediction #2: No, seriously, this time the Yankees' starting rotation will let them down
A bit of a bounce-back season from A.J. Burnett? Okay, I'll buy that. CC Sabathia continuing to do his thing? Of course, that's expected. But if I had known before the season started that Phil Hughes was going to miss half of the season, I might have picked the Yankees to finish fourth. It's ludicrous that the Yankees have gotten as much as they have from Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova.
Either the Yankees a) have better talent evaluators and coaches than everybody else, or b) are going to be disappointed with their non-Sabathia pitching in the second half.
Don’t discount the first one. The Yankees have been really good for decades, and it isn’t all about the payroll. Someone saw something in Colon and Garcia that 29 other teams didn’t see, and it’s helped the Yankees stay near the top of baseball’s best division. But while I give all sorts of credit to whomever made those decisions, I can’t commit to Bartolo Colon’s renaissance. Even if I buy the idea that he’s a top-level pitcher again -- which I guess we have to at this point -- I don’t trust him to stay healthy.
Prediction #3: The Rays will win more games than any team in the AL Central
And still finish third, of course. Before the 1998 season, the Detroit Tigers moved from the AL East to the AL Central. They haven't stopped laughing. They overcame a slow start this season to climb the division standings lazily, stepping over sub-.500 teams to get to first place. They've feasted on divisional opponents along the way, going 18-8 in the Central.
Over 30 percent of the Rays' remaining games are against either the Red Sox or Yankees. Tampa has a well-built team with a lot going for it, but it's so, so hard to escape the orbit of the AL East. Even the Blue Jays are a fairly good team. The Rays will finish with something approaching 90 wins, but the unbalanced schedule will poke them in the eye, and they'll finish in third place. They'll look over at the Tigers, those AL East turncoats celebrating an 87-win division title, and they'll want to wretch.
The Rays should at least get a participation ribbon, or something.
Prediction #4: Jose Bautista will hit worse in the second half
I'm thinking .334/.467/.702.
This is also your weekly reminder that about 600 days ago, Jose Bautista was 28, and a .238/.329/.400 hitter with 59 career home runs. Picture yourself in 2013 talking about Franklin Gutierrez’s march to 50 home runs. That’s about the same level of insanity.
Of course Bautista will hit worse. No one can maintain a .700 slugging percentage, just as no one can maintain a .467 OBP. It’s scary to think he can hit .300/.450/.675 and help the Blue Jays win fewer games
Prediction #5: The Orioles will not win the AL East
Oh, I don't mean just in 2011.
The Orioles' plan was a good idea, dang it. I wish more rebuilding teams would try it. Stuff a roster with reasonably priced veterans on one-year deals, and look for arbitration-eligible players who might be undervalued. As long as there aren't any MLB-ready prospects being blocked, those are two great ideas for a young, rebuilding team. And even though Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero have been busts, J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds have been good, and the Orioles' offense is something close to league-average.
But counting on young pitchers is like lending money to someone you barely know. Maybe it will pay off. Maybe. Probably not. And the Orioles were hoping that all of the young pitchers in their rotation would take a step forward, which they all did, except there was an open manhole cover right in front of them. Whoops.
If there's a serious prediction, though, it's that the Orioles will turn Koji Uehara into a pretty sweet haul of prospects. The veteran-hitter gambit didn't work out so great, but getting a couple of deadline prospects for a reliever is always an okay consolation prize for a rebuilding team.
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