Five teams, five different second-half predictions for the AL Central. The Indians started as if they couldn't be caught, leading by seven games at the end of May, but the Tigers are now tied for the division lead. What does the second half have in store?
Predictions For The AL Central In The Second Half
The AL Central is all tied up, with the upstart Indians at the top with the Tigers, but the White Sox and Twins are still close enough to dream. What does the second half have in store?
1. The Cleveland Indians will win the Central because I want them to.
It's hard to root against Detroit -- "Man, that place just gets all the breaks." -- but the Tigers were supposed to contend. Tie goes to the surprise contender, which is most certainly the Indians, though there isn't really a great reason to pick them for continued success. Shin-Soo Choo is out for months, as is Alex White. Mitch Talbot and Fausto Carmona are on the DL, but considering how poorly both were pitching, it's not like the team is going to improve a bunch when they get back. Grady Sizemore is in a horrible funk.
Really, there's no reason to think the Indians will reclaim that April magic. They were supposed to be a middling-to-poor team coming into the season, and they've had injury setbacks on top of that. But the bylaws of Major League Baseball state that there has to be one out-of-nowhere team every year, and the Indians aren't as weird to think about as the Pirates.
2. The Tigers will trade for the best pitcher on the market.
Of course, that could be Livan Hernandez. I doubt the Rockies will trade Ubaldo Jimenez, and the Astros might hold on to Wandy Rodriguez even though his ERA has jumped a half-run over his last two starts. Who is next? Ted Lilly? Aaron Harang? Ryan Dempster?
It's an ugly market for starting pitchers, but the Tigers have to dive in with both feet. They'll trade a prospect or two to upgrade the Charlie Furbush/Phil Coke tandem that has been holding down the #5 spot in the rotation.
Maybe they’ll get someone substantially better than the Furbush-Coke tandem. But the important thing is that I get to type “Furbush-Coke tandem” one more time. The Furbush-Coke Tandem. Starring Matt Damon. In theaters, Spring 2012.
3. Adam Dunn will get even worse.
Not really. I just like to troll with my subheadings. Though if Dunn loses a foot to gangrene after a musket accident, that subheading will look pretty smart. Because that's literally the only way he can get worse. Literally!!!
No, Dunn will improve, and not just in that he-can't-get-worse kind of way. He'll hit a lot of home runs, he'll take a lot of walks, and his final numbers will still look absolutely miserable. He'll come back next year, do Adam Dunn things, and he could win an RVA (Ryan Vogelsong Award) as the comeback player of the year. Weirder things have happened than 30-somethings just up and leaving their talent at a bus stop, but Dunn was too good, too consistent to just give up on him after one bad half.
4. Michael Cuddyer and the Twins will break up.
It's not him, it's them. After 11 years on the Twins -- 14 with the organization! -- the Twins will finally trade the free-agent-to-be. Cuddyer is only 32, so if he's been with the organization for 14 seasons, that must mean he signed with the Twins when he was ... carry the four ... twelve years old. Amazing.
Cuddyer is currently making $10.5 million, one of the reasons the Twins are a top-ten team in payroll for 2011. In the new baseball economy, he should bring back better prospects if the Twins eat some salary -- this is known as the Casey Blake Paradigm. There aren’t a lot of hitters on the market, though, so the Twins will still get a pretty sweet haul.
Of course, the Twins are still just 6-1/2 out, which is just a series sweep against a divisional rival away from really thinking they’re in it. But if they’re more than four games back, Cuddyer will have to give his letter-man jacket back and everything.
5. The Royals will call up Prospect.
You will love Prospect. He will make things better. He will get the Royals through this, and he will turn their fortunes around. Prospect will change the way you look at baseball, and the way you look at the Royals. Let's all turn on the TV and wait for Prospect.
I knew about Prospect before you did.
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