Predictions For The NL East In The Second Half

I like the Wild Card about 60 percent of the time, but then I look at a division like the NL East and wonder what an old-fashioned Braves/Phillies pennant race would look like for this and the next couple of seasons. Here are five more predictions for the second half, this time focusing on the NL East.

Prediction #1 - The Phillies trade a wheelbarrow full of prospects for Mike Adams and Heath Bell.
The Padres don't need to trade Adams, who is underpaid and around for 2012. There's a bit more urgency to trade Bell, but he'll still command a hefty price. The Phillies will mimic the Brewers' all-in strategy, though, by trading for both of them.

It would take some sweet, sweet prospects to do this. Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Vance Worley, even (though not bloody likely) Domonic Brown -- pick a couple, throw in a couple more, and then put a couple of lesser prospects on top for good measure. It would be a steep cost for relievers, even if they are the elite of the elite, but think about the temptation of complementing the best rotation in baseball with what would instantly be the best bullpen in baseball.

Prediction #2 - The Braves win the Wild Card by at least five games.
That's where they were going into the All-Star break, and they might even extend the lead. Until the Phillies get old, the NL East has that same bicameral feel that the AL East does, except there isn't an upstart Rays team around to complicate things. This prediction assumes that there's a trade for another outfielder who will push Jordan Schafer from the lead-off role, which has to happen. This prediction also assumes that the hermit crab that left behind a shell of Dan Uggla comes home for another spin.

Another prediction is that Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel will be in the center of controversy after their labrums file a restraining order against Fredi Gonzalez. The forthcoming movie about the case will get four-and-a-half stars from Variety, who will describe it as "The Curious Case of Curt Flood meets a game of Operation."

Prediction #3 - Jose Reyes isn't going anywhere.
From what I can gather, Mets fans want him signed. Trading Reyes would signal that the Mets can't afford him, and that they'd rather take the prospect haul that an injury-prone rental brings rather than a chance that they'll only get supplemental draft picks for him. That looks like a brutal PR move for a team whose fans are used to having their large-market way. That's one reason, and the other is that his hamstrings made of peppermint bark will scare suitors away.

Prediction #4 - The Marlins will finish in third place, and refuse to trade away almost anyone.
The Marlins will have a new stadium next year, remember. A good team would go a long ways towards good attendance. The Pirates and other teams have proven that a new stadium doesn't always mean immediate box-office magic, so keeping Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez might be a sound financial move in addition to a good roster-building strategy.

As for the third-place prediction, that comes from the Marlins having a fair amount of talent on the roster, Josh Johnson coming back, the Mets almost certainly getting rid of Carlos Beltran, and Scott Cousins getting out of prison.

Prediction #5 - Jayson Werth doesn't hit in July, August, or September either.
Not saying he's done, but he'll have to wait until next year to shake off 2011. With the pressure he's putting on himself to live up to his ridiculous contract, he'll keep screwing himself into the ground this year. No one will really notice, though, as Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg will both make a September cameo, which will be the biggest baseball news in Washington since Zoilo Versalles was called up in '59.