Will Matt Kemp Become Baseball’s First 50/50 Man?

Oh, sure. Kemp played well last season. But he’s now won his third straight National League Player of the Week Award, and he’s leading Earth with six home runs and a 1.026 slugging percentage. While we know he can’t keep this up, there’s at least one reason to think Kemp’s just hitting his stride: He told us so.

Here’s Anthony Castrovince (via MLB.com):

But we’re not stretching the limits of sanity to point out that, even in the midst of a potential mirage, what Matt Kemp is doing is absolutely legit.

How can such a thing be asserted with only 6.2 percent of the season in the books?

Well, because Kemp had the courtesy to warn us beforehand, that’s how.

“I’m telling you,” he told us via conference call last fall, “y’all created a monster.”

This was the conference call in which Kemp discussed being shortchanged in the National League MVP Award balloting (hey, Matt, some of us were on your side), the conference call in which he made that bold first proclamation that he’s going to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases this season.

I will admit that I didn’t expect Kemp to play better this season than he played last season.

Here are two lines, Kemp before 2011 and Kemp in 2011:

285/336/472
324/399/586

I will admit that I figured 2011 was Matt Kemp’s Career Year.

Which it might be, still.

Considering that he’s hit six home runs already, 45 (or 50!) doesn’t seem out of reach. I mean, I think he’s going to revert to his established level of ability and finish with 35-40 homers this season. But players aren’t robots.

I do think it’s odd to seriously consider 50 stolen bases, though.

If we think 50 home runs is realistic because Kemp’s already hit six home runs, doesn’t it follow that we have to think 50 steals is unrealistic ... considering that he’s stolen just one base this season, and been caught twice?

There are some pretty good reasons why nobody’s come close. As Castrovince notes, every home run is a hit that can’t be followed by a steal. Home-run hitters tend to be somewhat bulky, and a bit slower than before. Managers don’t like to see their power hitters risking life and ankle sliding into bases just for fun. Perhaps most obviously, 50-homer seasons are quite rare and so are 50-steal seasons.

Granted, Matt Kemp came so close to becoming the fifth 40/40 man, with 39 steals and 40 homers. But to reach 50/50 he’ll have to do significantly better in both categories, he’ll have to do something that no player in the history of professional baseball has ever done*, and he’ll have to stay healthy.

Anything is possible.

* No, I don’t know this for sure. Pretty sure, though.