FanDuel: Lessons from the baseball playoffs

If you're watching the baseball playoffs, you've seen the nonsense that has been the Kansas City Royals so far. The Royals hit for no power in the regular season, and now they have seven homers in the postseason. Things that aren't supposed to work do work. Heck, it's not just the Royals. The whole playoffs have been crazy.

Just not sure there's a better example of why you can neither predict nor divine meaning from postseason baseball that the last week.

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) October 11, 2014

In a single game (or, in baseball, a series) any number of crazy things can happen. You could use only New York Jets in your FanDuel roster this weekend, and in one game, it could work. (I mean, it couldn't, because come on, it's the Jets. But I'm making a point here.) And if you did invest in all Jets, and it won ... you still would have made bad decisions.

• It's really, really not like he needed the help, but after getting to play the Jaguars and Jets back-to-back, Philip Rivers ($9,100) gets the Raiders. Schedule-makers must like ol' Phil, because that's a dream. I expect a big game out of him - or, at least, a big first half before they call off the dogs.
• So we've long discussed the home/road splits of both Drew Brees and Matt Ryan ($8,700). This week is a home game for Ryan. It's his first in three weeks, and his last game in Atlanta until Week 12. Seriously, after this week, the Falcons play road-London-bye-road-road. So use Ryan this week, then stop for a while. And if you have him in full-season fantasy, maybe look to sell high.
• The Eagles have given up the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks so far. Eli Manning ($7,200) has averaged 20 fantasy points a game since his awful Week 1. That works for me if it works for you.

• If all quarterbacks were valued the same, I'd have no issue investing in Aaron Rodgers ($9,600) this week. But as expensive as he is, going against a Dolphins team that doesn't give up many points to opposing quarterbacks, I'd rather use that money elsewhere.
• I have really high hopes for Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900), both from a career perspective and a rest-of-this-year one. But I don't have high hopes for him this week, coming off a high-ankle sprain and going against a Detroit defense that shuts down opposing quarterbacks. Wait a week.

• So the Cardinals' quarterback on Sunday is going to be either 80 percent of Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton off a concussion, or Logan Thomas? That seems like a real recipe for a lot of carries for Andre Ellington ($7,200), who I love in all formats this week.
• Knile Davis, Marshawn Lynch and Ellington have put up big numbers against the Broncos' defense. And it's not like the Jets want Geno Smith to throw the ball. So I could see Chris Ivory ($5,600) having a nice game Sunday as a sneaky-cheap play.
• Speaking of sneaky-cheap plays, with A.J. Green and Marvin Jones both out Sunday, everyone expects the Bengals to lean heavily on Mohamed Sanu. And sure, they might. But I could really see a lot more work for Jeremy Hill ($5,000) as well. He's not someone to build your roster around, but if you find yourself strapped for cash, he could be a nice little bargain at the end.

• Sure, the Cardinals are losing defensive players like my nephew loses electronic devices, but the team still doesn't allow points to opposing running backs, with only 43 allowed in four games despite going against Ryan Mathews, Rashad Jennings, Frank Gore and Montee Ball in that time. I like Alfred Morris ($7,600) as a player, but this isn't a week to invest in him.
• Zac Stacy ($7,200) sounds like he's good to go for Monday night's game against San Francisco after dealing with a n injury, so if I had him in regular fantasy I'd use him. But in weekly, with the chances that Benny Cunningham steals some of his touches, you have to look elsewhere.

• I try to shy away from teams' No. 2 receivers in FanDuel when possible, but we know that Peyton Manning likes to spread the success around among his receivers, and the Jets have a terrible pass defense, and Emmanuel Sanders ($8,000) looks like a nice investment.
• Until we see that Brandon Marshall is fully healthy, Alshon Jeffery ($7,700) will be the team's No. 1 pass target, and the No. 1 pass target on a team like the Bears is a really nice thing to be.
• I'm pretty surprised the salary isn't higher for Golden Tate ($6,600) with the news that Calvin Johnson will almost certainly be out, but, as I noted earlier in the week, the salaries can't be updated that quickly. With the Detroit weapons dropping like flies, Tate is a solid investment.

• The Patriots have only allowed more than 14 fantasy points total in a game to opposing wide receivers once this year; I'm supposed to think Kyle Orton and Sammy Watkins ($6,500) are going to change that?
• Because the Chargers were terrible on defense last year, we've become conditioned to think they're terrible this year despite all evidence to the contrary. But it is a good unit, and that means you can't use James Jones ($5,300) as one of those bargain plays I like so much.

• Sure, he's entering Sunday's game banged up, but Greg Olsen ($6,600) has a nice matchup Sunday against a Cincinnati team that allows a lot of points to tight ends, and he's still easily his team's best offensive weapon. I like his value.
• Teams don't throw deep on the Seahawks - because they can't - but they have found some success on the shorter, dump-off throws. That means throws to tight ends. That means good things for Jason Witten ($5,900).

• It looks like Vernon Davis ($5,800) will play Monday night. And normally, he's a top-tier play at tight end when he's on the field. But he's burned us enough times this season that I think it's prudent - in both regular and weekly fantasy - to steer clear for a week. Let Davis prove it on the field before you buy back in.

• I've started seeing questions about whether the defense of the Seahawks ($5,400) is droppable in regular fantasy, which is ridiculous. This is a unit that has played against Green Bay, San Diego, Denver and Washington so far. Sure, playing Dallas Sunday continues the rough start, but this is still fantasy's top unit, and you shouldn't be scared to invest.
• Consider this your weekly reminder that it is never a bad idea to start the defense playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This time, it's the defense of the Titans ($5,400).

• The two worst teams for opposing defenses to play - the Colts and the Broncos - aren't a surprise. But the third-worst team is. The Browns have allowed one fantasy point total to opposing defenses this year. That makes the Steelers ($5,000) defense a bad investment this week.