When numbers become unpredictable, stop trying to predict them.
FanDuel: Save money where there’s no upside
You aren’t going to get huge games out of your kicker or defense, so don’t even try. Spend your money at the skill positions.
Kevork Djansezian
That's what the successful FanDuel players have done in recent weeks. Kicker scoring is down (kickers are about a field goal below where they were last year) and defense scoring is down (I've been writing about that). So if you can't count on good numbers from the middling positions, why even bother?
The top FanDuel rosters have done that. A month ago, defenses and kickers were filling about 17 combined percent of winning teams’ salary caps. In Week 7, that’s down closer to 15 percent. No, there’s not that much variance in salaries in the top and bottom kickers and defenses, so it can’t change that much. But that range, from the high mark to the low, saves those rosters close to a thousand bucks in salary. That’s the ability to bump up the other seven positions a notch or two each, or the ability to upgrade one single spot to a superstar.
This week, that meant a lot of Demaryius Thomas. The Broncos' receiver, who has been ridiculous lately, was represented on six of the week's top 10 rosters, bringing the average salary at WR1 to its highest point since Week 1. Also, teams invested more in their running backs. The two running backs on the top 10 rosters took up a combined 26.3 percent of the salary cap, easily the highest number of the season. The week's best team had DeMarco Murray and Matt Forte. No. 2 had Forte and Le'Veon Bell. Teams invested hard in running backs.
That’s the way to do it. With very few exceptions, your kicker and your defense can’t possibly go off to any meaningful degree. But a running back or a wide receiver can get you 30 points if everything goes really well. It’s better to spend there.
So when you're picking your FanDuel rosters for this week, and you click on the "K" or the "D" tab, scroll down to the bottom. It might be hard to pass up on the Seattle or Detroit defenses, or on Stephen Gostkowski or Adam Vinatieri, but do it. Find one of the cheapest units, one of the cheapest kickers. Sure, pick and choose at the bottom and find the best matchup, but limit yourself to the bottom few price points.
Spend that money elsewhere.
See More:
