I had a very Ned Yost-ian week in FanDuel this past week.
FanDuel: ‘Yosting’ isn’t a viable strategy
Winning despite being wrong worked for me this weekend, but I probably need to try being right more often.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Have you been following the baseball playoffs? The Royals (my adopted root-for-them team when Texas got eliminated in, like, May) have a manager who I'm not entirely sure understands that the point of baseball is to not make outs. He's made choices that have been first-guessed, second-guessed, 63rd-guessed on Twitter. Bad decisions. They just are.
The Royals are 4-0 in the playoffs.
Say what you will about Yost, and I’m never one to place the outcome over the process, but if the Royals keep winning, he and the rest of Kansas City won’t give two craps about how many bad decisions the manager made. (But man, has it been a lot.)
Last week, I built all my weekly FanDuel rosters around Rashad Jennings. Great matchup, long week, home game, it was perfect. And Jennings looked good, rushing for 5.5 yards a carry and gaining 8.5 per reception. Except that he got hurt early enough in the game that Andre Williams got (a) twice as many carries as Jennings, and (b) the *sob* touchdown. My call, as much as I liked it, didn't work.
Except it did. Because while Jennings struck out for me, the rest of my roster ... man. I had Peyton Manning, Andre Ellington, Brian Quick, Demaryius Thomas. Keenan Allen wasn't a successful pick, sure, but the main takeaway is I now have $200 more dollars in FanDuel than I had at the start of the weekend.
So the call I based everything on was wrong, and I won anyway. It was almost like I had a little Eric Hosmer sitting on my shoulder.
Also last week, I mentioned how diving for super-cheap bargains at the premium positions (QB, WR1, etc.) was a good tactic to not making money. I used Brian Hoyer as an example of a super-cheap quarterback who wasn't necessarily a smart play. And then Hoyer was represented on three of the top 10 rosters in my weekend tournament. So, thanks for that, Bri.
Anyway, this past week was an example of both (a) the virtue of pairing successful teammates, and (b) the need to swing for the fences. Four of the top 10 rosters paired Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas; three paired Manning with Demaryius and Julius Thomas. The only three tight ends anywhere in the top 10 rosters -- Thomas, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen -- were the three tight ends with multiple touchdowns this weekend. The people who went dumpster diving stumbled into gold in guys like Justin Forsett, Khiry Robinson and Brian Quick. And, of course, Hoyer, who was really cheap at quarterback and one of the week's top quarterbacks.
But it brings me back to my original point. The occasional bargain is fine, but prioritizing bargains over good fantasy plays is a losing proposition. Peyton Manning was on four of the week's top 10 rosters, and even with that, the week's average quarterback salary for the top rosters was still a season low of $7,980. Sure, Hoyer (and, to a lesser extent, Cam Newton, on one of the top 10) was a cheap success. But clearly, FanDuel's results show that it's not likely to be a long-term success.
The most commonly owned players this week among big winners were Manning, Thomas, Thomas, Gates, Matt Forte, Brian Quick and Golden Tate. That's four superstars, an occasionally dominant tight end, a wide receiver playing alongside a hurt Calvin Johnson, and Quick, who probably ought to have a higher salary at this point, but one guy does not disprove the rule.
You can’t take the top nine choices in FanDuel and build your roster. You’ll have to find a bargain somewhere. Just, when you’re looking, save at kicker and defense first. Splurge on the premium spots.
Or don’t, and win anyway. That’s what Ned Yost would do.
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