Fantasy football advice, NFL playoffs 2015: Figuring out FanDuel playoff success

Welcome to the Wild Card round, where division winners leave early and sad fans have to determine what to do with the AFC South winner swag they impulsively bought. You’ll see that, with only Flacco-approved elite teams remaining, it’s vastly more difficult to find cheap plays with good matchups. Instead, we’ll focus on three concepts that can provide success.

1) Load up on WRs with the top two RBs either hurt or in iffy matchups

Our two most expensive running backs both have serious question marks this week. For Le’Veon Bell, the issue is health. He’s missed practice all week, and the Steelers have signed some running back depth to cover the risk of Bell sitting out. For DeMarco Murray, the issue is matchup. Detroit boasts the best rush defense in the league, limiting teams to under 70 yards a game. Murray is a usage and production monster, but the matchup and $9,000 price are giving me some pause.

I am fully prepared for both RBs to go for 40 points, but, to mitigate our risk, we can try and invest more heavily in other premium positions. We can give our team a supremely high floor by playing Antonio Brown and Dez Bryant as our two wide receivers. I love Dez this week as, with the Lions elite against the rush, the Cowboys will look to attack through the air. Dez produces unreal numbers with the normally reduced Dallas passing attack; any increase in passing attempts and we can expect to see that X over and over again. As for Antonio Brown, he’s the PPR god who doesn’t need further virtual ink spilled over his greatness. This week, he faces a bad Ravens’ defense (10th worst against the pass) and will see an increased workload if Bell can’t make the game.

Playing these two will force some salary cap finagling, and we’ll have to take some risks at our other spots. I really like Dan Herron as a cheap RB play this week. He’s the unquestioned starter now, and while his numbers haven’t been great, he saw 13 touches last week in a game before being rested in the third and fourth quarter. At $5,400, he’s fantastically cheap and faces a middle-of-the-pack Bengals’ defense.

2) Invest heavily in the backend

The abyss of tight end question marks and poor defense plays should scare even the most gunslingin’ FanDuel player. Most of the offenses produce at a consistent rate, so we have only one low-risk play in the Carolina defense. Over the last four weeks, the Panthers have scored 31, 9, 10, and 10 points. They face a Cardinals’ offense that hasn’t scored more than 20 points since Nov. 9 and trots out Ryan Lindley as their ineffective starter. At $5,300, they’re understandably expensive, but worth every penny.

As for tight end, Greg Olsen is my favorite play of the week. His salary is reduced by poor production over the last two weeks, but no one else enjoys a similar usage rate or potential. Olsen has scored over 14 points four times this year, and he faces a Cardinals defense consistently scorched by the tight end position. Dropping $6,400 for a tight end is a bit difficult to stomach, but, given the dearth of defensible plays this week, Olsen is worth the price tag.

3) Stack Calvin and Stafford

For our final strategy, I’ll offer up a stacking option that should get us great results. Predicting game-flow is difficult at best, but we can set up our lineups based on the information we have and minimize our rage when it all goes to hell. The Lions face a Cowboys’ defense that has the eighth-best rushing defense this year, but the seventh-worst passing defense. Their weakness is through the air, and the price is right for a Lions stack this week. Matthew Stafford is the sixth-most expensive quarterback this week, cheaper than Cam Newton and Joe Flacco at only $8,000. Calvin Johnson is our third-most expensive WR this week, but his production and consistency validate the $9,000 price tag. A total cost of $17,000 leaves you $43,000 to play with, and, if we slot in Olsen and Carolina to fortify our tight end and defense, we’re still left with $31,300 to find two RBs and two WRs. That gives you more than enough to play a stud RB like Jeremy Hill and balance the roster with some sleeper plays.