It was 11:57 p.m., I believe. The line for the early game between the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons had been at the equivalent of a standstill all week. The Falcons would be favored by a point, then 1.5, then one again and so on. Suddenly, at 11:57, a momentous swing. In the blink of an eye, the Cowboys went from one-point dogs to home favorites.
Fantasy football start/sit advice based on Week 4 NFL picks against the spread
We take another in-depth look at the matchups and Vegas scoring totals that could win your league for you in Week 4.
If you recall, I discussed sudden line movements back in Week 1. The grizzled vets of old-school Vegas sit around smoking cigars and using speakeasy connotation while being forced to watch some classic rock light show -- typically Aerosmith or AC/DC -- enacted above their heads. When the public bets the line up, the sharks emerge from the fog of smoke in order to stick their budget to a number. Not a team, per say, but a number. And because of that, watching movements up until kickoff are key when tinkering with your lineup. Most players get info and switch for the sake of switching. They don’t stop and ask themselves if that swap actually helped their team.
Anyway, it's 11:57 p.m., right? And the line swings. If you were watching, I'm sure you had the same thought process: Why? By process of elimination, we can normally dwindle our options down to have a successful swap. For example, Terrance Williams can't catch anything and Brandon Weeden sure as hell isn't worth two points, leaving only Joseph Randle as the main beneficiary. I quickly opened all of my lineups and replaced the selections of either Melvin Gordon or Justin Forsett (two I had been teetering on throughout the week) with Randle.
You know the rest. Randle rushed for three touchdowns in the first half, Devonta Freeman is stupid, and let’s never mention that game again. All that matters is that we were watching and used it to our advantage. Just don’t ask how many touchdowns Nick Foles had.
Here are your Week 4 matchups and movements (and picks.)
(Home team in CAPS)
New York Jets (-1.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Vegas Scoring Total: 42.5
I realize the Dolphins are capitalized above but I don't actually consider a 2:30 p.m. kickoff in the United Kingdom to be Sun Life. For starters, Wembley Stadium doesn't sell any of the pulled pork nachos or BurgerFi cheeseburgers that Miami has to offer. What's really troubling, however, is that they've apparently gone full American with their menu (outside of calling fries "chips," of course). I don't know about you, but If I'm traveling to London, I want my chips served with gravy, meat stuffed in pastry, and unnecessary obscenities shouted at all times.
And in return for giving us what will essentially amount to a quadriple-header on Sunday, London is forced to watch a Miami defense that has allowed at least 270 passing yards in back-to-back contests. That probably isn't enough to warrant a flier on Ryan Fitzpatrick (who has quietly thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season), but Brandon Marshall should once again be an optimal member of your cash game. Brice McCain has allowed 14 receptions for 232 yards and an opposing 95.3 quarterback rating this season, meaning Marshall should mirror his numbers from last week (10-109-1) with ease.
Branden Albert returned to practice this week and brings hope to an otherwise stagnant running game, but even a shiny new left tackle can't get me to pay up for Lamar Miller until we see more than 10 carries per game. As consistent (inconsistent?) as Miller has been, Jarvis Landry remains a constant in cash games. Having received at least 10 targets and eight receptions in every game this season, his high floor and dependable ceiling make him one to trust if assured points are needed in the same lineup as a punt play. It's only a matter of time before that first touchdown finally follows.
BUFFALO BILLS (-5) over New York Giants
Total: 46
If there were some DFS-centric genie that granted me only one wish pertaining to ownership percentages this weekend, I would 1) laugh at his useless talent, and 2) immediately ask about Karlos Williams. In cash games, he's already a must-start player. Though the Giants have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards this season, Williams doesn't need to score a touchdown for the fourth consecutive game in order to return value. At his next-to-minimum cost of $5,500, he need only eclipse 80 yards with a few catches sprinkled in to pay his dues. But what about in GPPs? Do the three-hundreds of thousands of players at FanDuel even know who Williams is? Do they know the Bills lead the league in both rushing yards and touchdowns? He's a Top-10 option in season-long formats and because of his salary, I'm leaning toward having that same opinion in tournaments. I just won't be shocked if he's the highest-owned player in every major GPP this week.
As for Tygod, he has risen and thrown three touchdowns in each of his last two performances. To the fantasy-football-dead, he has given life and is going ahead of you into MetLife. Follow him.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Total: 47.5
I know you were worried about those 116 yards and two interceptions heading into the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans, but Andrew Luck's 144 yards and two touchdowns over the next 15 minutes showed why he'll still arguably finish the year as the first- or second-ranked quarterback. Sunday morning is your last chance to buy-low. As for his matchup this week, stacking Luck with either T.Y. Hilton or Donte Moncrief (preferably the latter) seems like one of the safest routes to production.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-6.5) over Houston Texans
Total: 46.5
If you were one of the few who paid for Devonta Freeman against a Cowboys defense that, at the time, had allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league, I applaud you. Even though he was only one of two active running backs on the Falcons roster, I couldn’t convince myself to start a guy who hadn’t run for more than 38 yards in a single game prior to Sunday (Yep, still angry). But if you’ve been following this column for any amount of time, you already know that I generally stress the importance of never chasing points and the same goes for Freeman this week.
In fact, this one's actually quite simple. Pay for DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones in your cash games and get the hell out. You already know Jones has reached Antonio Brown-status in head-to-heads, but Hopkins has also seen at least 11 targets come his way in all three games this season. Not only that, but the Texans are somehow averaging 80 offensive plays per game (!!!!!!!). Though the results didn't quite show when he battled Josh Norman (5-53), Hopkins could easily see a season-high in targets while most likely playing from behind.
DENVER BRONCOS (-7) over Minnesota Vikings
Total: 43
In what could arguably be touted as the ugliest WR-CB matchup we'll see in 2015, I wouldn't blame you for going back to the Denver defense in all tourneys. I mean, Mike Wallace versus Chris Harris? Charles Johnson bodied by Aqib Talib? Hell, Pro Football Focus even has slot corner Bradley Roby limiting opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 16.7 (!!!) through three weeks of play. And for an offense that's currently ranked dead last in passing attempts, yards, and touchdowns, it doesn't bode well that the opposition coincidentally ranks first in all of those aforementioned categories. I don't know about you, but Von Miller is getting excited:
Though this total has shrunk nearly three points since being opened Sunday night (which typically favors running backs), I can’t imagine using either C.J. Anderson or Adrian Peterson unless strictly shooting for contrarian plays in GPPs. Demaryius Thomas, however, has received at least 11 targets in every game this season and continues to be both underrated and reliable.
Carolina Panthers (-3) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Total: 40
First off, if we’re going to recognize the best sack celebration of 2015, we must first commemorate the innovator and torch bearer of said award. Hit it, Mike Tolbert!:
If you’re not interested in the Denver defense this week, the only other option should be Carolina. Being tied for the fewest passes of at least 25 yards allowed, the Panthers have also yet to allow any receiver to surpass 80 yards in a single game this year. Seeing as Doug Martin and Charles Sims are now in a full timeshare, it makes sense to avoid them while you’re at it, too.
The Carolina offense remains the real focal point in this one. For instance, Cam Newton: MVP? Just maybe. Despite Jonathan Stewart's volume on the ground, even his 3.5 yards per carry can't seem to muck up the Panthers rushing attack. Having carried the ball at least seven times in each game, Newton has moved beyond GPPs and made an argument to be stacked with Greg Olsen in cash games each and every week.
Mike Evans received a whopping 17 targets last week, but Week 4 certainly isn’t the time to try and sneak him into your lineups. For now, wait it out or buy-low following what’s sure to be another frustrating day on Josh Norman Island:
On 5 targets vs. Josh Norman last season, Mike Evans caught one pass: an 8-yd TD. It was the only TD Norman allowed last season.
— Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon) September 28, 2015 WASHINGTON (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 43.5
In a technique that’s usually reserved for MLB DFS, it appears you’re going to have to hover around the local weather channel for this one. Hurricane Joaquin is expected to hit the Mid-Atlantic at some point this weekend and if that is the case, this matchup is likely to be rescheduled when both teams hit their byes during Week 8:
CHICAGO BEARS (+3) over Oakland Raiders
Total: 44.5
There are two ways to approach this game, the first being the sensible method of stacking Derek Carr along with both Amari Cooper (11 targets in back to back games) and Michael Crabtree (quietly leading the Raiders in targets). Latavius Murray is currently averaging the third-most yards per attempt among running backs with at least 50 carries, so why not throw him in there, too? The Raiders can celebrate like it's 2013 (the last time they were favored in any game), Chicago fans can keep up their scoffs for Goff and we can all go home happy.
The other approach? Well ... and hear me out ... maybe the Bears aren't as bad as we think.
“As bad” is key since anything else would suggest that I consider the Bears to be good. Sorry Chicago, but NOPE. Their defense has still allowed the most points in the league. But having faced the fewest passing attempts this season, Chicago has somehow allowed the most passing touchdowns by a healthy margin. In other words, regression is imminent and there’s an outside chance it begins this week.
Oakland has allowed an opposing tight end to set a career-high in yards during the last three games. Even with Jimmy Clausen potentially at the helm, there isn’t any reason to keep Martellus Bennett out of your lineups this week. Furthermore, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Alshon Jeffery find success against a Raiders secondary that has allowed the most total yards this season (including a league-leading 11 passes of 25-plus yards). I would be more than willing to pay for both.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 45
We live in a world where, for one more week at least, you can depend on Andy Dalton (unless the line creeps Sunday morning, that is). The Chiefs have allowed the most fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers and that probably won't change in Week 4. But while most will have exposure toward A.J. Green, Marvin Jones seems like the way to go in GPPs. Jones has seen his snaps, targets, and receptions all progressively increase over the course of the last three weeks. Though Tyler Eifert is commonly assumed to be the Bengals red-zone threat, Jones has received only one fewer target than Eifert inside the 20. For only $5,500, Jones could easily return value with a single catch.
There's also value to be had in Cincinnati's backfield, but good luck figuring out where. Giovani Bernard has received 50 more snaps than Jeremy Hill during the past two games, but Marvin Lewis still claimed in a press conference earlier this week that when they're playing from behind, "It's Gio". The Bengals of course have only trailed during seven offensive plays this season and, according to Chase Stuart at Football Perspective, held an average lead of more than a touchdown last week against Baltimore.
“It’s Gio” only when you’re behind? Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking:
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-7.5) over Cleveland Browns
Total: 44.5
Yep. Just as I thought.
The Chargers defense has allowed over 160 rushing yards in consecutive games but dogs getting more than a touchdown on the road is a no-no for backfields. Even if the line were to move in favor of Cleveland, Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell split touches evenly last week. There's no sense in getting too cute with either at this point, and that feeling extends toward season-long formats, as well.
On the other hand, favorites by more than a touchdown tend to lean on their backfield more, which brings us to Melvin Gordon.
Would I trust him in cash games? Absolutely not. The Chargers offensive line has been a roller coaster this season, adding two more fresh faces to their rotating cast just this week. But the Browns defense has allowed the most rushing yards in 2015 and is currently giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Danny Woodhead certainly isn’t their power back and won’t be featured in the game if passing isn’t necessary. In tourneys, I’m all-in on Gordon, especially since his ownership is sure to be quite low.
St. Louis Rams (+7) over ARIZONA CARDINALS
Total: 42.5
I know, I know. Nick Foles, rabble rabble, you suck, I get it. And if it weren't for Lance Kendricks calling on the spirit of Freddie Mitchell and blaming his dropped pass during the third quarter on the stadium lights (an inexcusable reason that no one should ever use and the oldest trick in the book), then the results would have been much different. For now, you're staying away from all Rams skill positions and anyone whose name rhymes with Dick Holes.
It's boring, but you're once again having complete confidence in the Cardinals players that have gotten you this far. The Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald stack is alive and well. I would even consider John Brown this week seeing as Arizona will fully unleash the three-headed chihuahua (not quite a monster) of Chris Johnson, Andre Ellington, and David Johnson against one of the better, if not the best front seven in the league. Avoid the Cardinals backfield everywhere and continue reaping the rewards of a healthy Carson Palmer while it's still viable.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+8) over Green Bay Packers
Total: 48.5
No Davante Adams? No problem. As long as the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, that thing will continue churning and producing top tier fantasy output. He remains the only answer to the question, "Who do I start in my head-to-heads this week?" and has been gifted with a matchup against a San Francisco defense that has allowed a whopping 10 yards per pass attempt. Per Mike Clay at Pro Football Focus, Green Bay has lined up with 3-WR in 99 percent of their offensive snaps, putting the entire lot of Randall Cobb, James Jones, and even Ty Montgomery in play.
Having said all of that, would you believe I’m fading Rodgers in every GPP? Only one (repeat: ONE) player in the Top 50 of FanDuel’s Sunday Million last week had Tom Brady rostered because he was the obvious choice. Everyone who paid for Brady essentially went nowhere due to his universal ownership. In Week 4, Rodgers fits that mold perfectly.
So, if Rodgers is out, and we can continue estimating that Dalton's ownership will be sky high, where do we turn? (Don't act like you don't know where this is going).
Just make your way down the usual check list. Dog? Check. Over 48? Done. At home? Unfortunately. Middle name "Rand"? Irrelevant. All signs point to Colin Kaepernick being an all-too-obvious, under-the-radar play. The Packers defense has allowed the second-most runs of 10-plus yards this season, about the only offensive category the 49ers actually lead the league in. Even if they're playing from behind, Kaep has rushed for at least 40 yards in every game this season. If it weren't for last week's debacle in which San Francisco accumulated only 10 first downs, Kaepernick may have even kept his consecutive streak of double-digit fantasy points alive. When that FanDuel percentage says 0.1 next to his name this week, I'll happily nod my head and walk away.
Or maybe the lights are in my eyes.
Detroit Lions (+10) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Total: 43
-1, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0
No, those aren't my episodic grades for the latest season of True Detective. That is the actual game log from Joique Bell this past week. The lone carry that went further than a single yard cut into the deficit of his carries that were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, now making that ratio an "impressive" 9/4. To put that into perspective, Ameer Abdullah has produced 60 more yards despite receiving only one more carry. I'm not on either, however, until Jim Caldwell makes up his mind as to whom gets a bulk of the touches moving forward (though the choice is obvious to everyone but, yep, Jim Caldwell.)
Now for something I have yet to touch on this season. I'll spare you the extensive details, but just know I have a "pivot" play ready to go in all of my cash games between Willie Snead and Thomas Rawls.
Ideally, we would all love for Lynch to sit this one out. Not because we’re terrible human beings and wish ill will upon him, but because fantasy causes us to walk the line between our moral conscience and a few extra bucks. Simply put, it’s impossible to use Rawls’ volume at minimum salary if Lynch starts. But in the case Lynch is able to go Monday night (something we should know by the time the Sunday night game rolls around), Snead is priced the same as Rawls and plays only 12 hours prior.
Unfortunately, FanDuel doesn’t allow for late game swaps. But another particular site does, and for the sake of our contractual agreements here at SB Nation, let’s just say it rhymes with BraftDings. So while Brandon Coleman has seen his snaps (58/40/34), targets (7/6/3), and receptions (4/3/1) significantly decrease over the last three weeks, Snead has trended upwards immensely.
If I’m forced to start Snead, that’s fine. It’s not what I had planned, but I’m certainly content given his recent production. If Rawls does in fact start, though ... well ...
(Editor's Note: The line for the New Orleans Saints-Dallas Cowboys matchup had been pending contingent on Drew Brees at the time of this publishing and therefore was not included.)
Last Week: 7-8
Week 3 Exposure: Nick Foles (7.8), Adrian Peterson (24.6), Le'Veon Bell (22.7), Donte Moncrief (11.2), Brandon Marshall (19.9), Ted Ginn Jr. (11.3), Jarvis Landry (12.6), Rob Gronkowski (12.1), Broncos (16), Panthers (6)
Season: 27-18
Week 4 Exposure: Colin Kaepernick, Aaron Rodgers, Karlos Williams, Frank Gore, Melvin Gordon, Thomas Rawls (if Lynch sits), Julio Jones, Marvin Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Ty Montgomery, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett, Broncos
