2015 NFL picks against the spread, Week 4: Vikings, Jaguars make good bets

In four of the last five seasons of the NFL forcing football on the people of London, one head coach who took his team there ended up getting fired. It happened to two coaches last season. Mike Smith coached his way out of a win in the closing minutes of the Falcons’ UK game against the Lions, dropping that one 22-21 and later getting fired, and the Raiders fired Dennis Allen after getting thumped in a Wembley game by the Dolphins.

This year, it might be Joe Philbin’s turn to continue the tradition. His players are reportedly ready to quit on him, and the NFL insiders are saying that a blowout loss to the Jets on Sunday will get him canned. Anything could happen, but I don’t see the Jets having too many problems with the Dolphins. They got surprised by the Eagles last week. That’s not going to happen this week, and that two-point spread seems waaaay closer than it should be.

UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK: It’s not a fluke that the Broncos are 3-0. What feels off about that record is that Peyton Manning and that offense are scoring 24.7 points per game, somehow. Manning’s 5.9 yards per attempt this season would be a career low, by a long shot. He was averaging 7.9 yards per attempt last year and everyone was freaking out about his play.

Manning’s a smart player; he finds a way. I’m just not buying that he can find a way to get the Broncos a whole touchdown more than the Vikings. Minnesota wouldn’t be my pick to win straight up, but I feel good about Teddy Bridgewater and Co. covering a seven-point spread.

THE JAGUARS AGAIN: Yeah, I’m not feeling real good about picking the Jaguars last week. But here we are. I’m still riding them. They’re going to make me some money, right?

I’m not betting on the Jags so much as I’m betting against the Colts. They’re a mess, in case you hadn’t noticed. And now you’ve got questions about Andrew Luck’s shoulder (he’s questionable). Jacksonville knocked off a lifeless Dolphins team in Week 2 before getting smeared by the Patriots last week. And it’s a nine-point spread in favor of the Colts. I’ll take that action. That spread could close to three points or less if Luck can’t play, but I’d still take the Jags here.

UNDERDOGS NO MORE: The Raiders haven’t been favored on the road since 2012. They’re favored over the Bears by a field goal this week, and given the awful state of the Bears, I’d say they’ll win by more than that. Bet the over (44 points) in this one.

BREESUS: It’s nice that the Saints have Drew Brees in the lineup this week, but it’s not going to be enough. That team’s a mess. Brees or not, I could see them going 4-12 this season.

MONDAY NIGHT: Matthew Stafford is 0-13 against big spreads (a touchdown or more). It’s a safe bet he’ll be 0-14 after Monday’s showdown in Seattle.

Alright, here are this week’s picks. Don’t bet the family farm or anything on it, but things are fairly straightforward this week.

All odds via OddsShark.