NFL survivor pool strategy, Week 14: Home sweet home

Cleveland Browns

Survivor pools aren't just about picking a team to win. It's also strategic. By this point of the season, odds are good you've run through the biggest teams, and you're just hoping to survive on the 7-5 and 6-6 teams who have good matchups. So when you have a chance to use the Browns, you had better take it. Say what you will about Johnny Manziel, but he's better than Austin Davis, while the San Francisco 49ers are 1-5 on the road. You have to be strategic at this point in the year, and there's nothing craftier than picking the lone 2-10 team to win a game. -DK

New York Giants

Don't let the #winz fool you. The Dolphins ran only 46 offensive plays in their Week 13 victory over the Ravens; the St. Louis Rams, for comparison's sake, average 57.7, the fewest in the league. Miami also punted more times (9) than they actually recorded first downs (8). Sure, Lamar Miller receiving 20 carries for only the second time in his career is all well and good, but those 86 passing yards from Ryan Tannehill aren't beating anyone that doesn't give them an automatic six-point handicap via pick-six. -JD

Cleveland controls it own destiny and it knows it. Lose out and suddenly, Jared Goff is draped in all orange starting Week 1 of 2016. Win out and that can only mean one thing: Johnny Manziel's performance over the final quarter of the season deemed himself worthy to move forward with. The problem is that only one of those outcomes is logical. -JD

Seattle Seahawks

A rejuvenated Russell Wilson, a good defense and Pete Carroll against a still-sad Matt Schaub (at best; the team might have to go to Jimmy dang Clausen), a suffering defense and a pack of nth-stringers. Okey dokey. -DK

Indianapolis Colts

"Team facing Jacksonville" has historically been a strong survivor pool pick. It's not the sure thing it has been in recent years, but even in 2015, it's not bad. A first-place team facing the Jaguars? That's awfully fun. In theory, at least. In practice, we have a struggling Colts team on the road with either a banged-up Matt Hasselbeck or a released-by-Tennessee Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback, and they're facing a Jaguars team with, at this point, a really strong offense. The Colts have to be favored Sunday, but there's no chance I'm putting a pool survival on their backs. -DK

New England Patriots

I know, I know. Of course Tom Brady doesn't look as efficient without Rob Gronkowski or Julian Edelman or Dion Lewis in the lineup. But while that may be true, the offense has slowed in numerous (not just one) aspects. Brady, for starters, was getting rid of the ball quicker than any quarterback in the league. According to Pro Football Focus, his release has dropped to the eighth-slowest in the last two weeks. And it certainly doesn't bode well that his completion rate hasn't eclipsed 60 percent in that span, either. Sure, they're still the Texans, but at home? In primetime? With the division lead up for grabs? I'm terrified of J.J. Watt just thinking about it. -JD

Go through the Detroit Lions' record this year. They lost to the Chargers by five, the Seahawks by three. There is, of course, that brutal loss to the Packers a week ago. If you squint, you can't make Detroit a good team, but it ought to be better than its 4-8 record. Meanwhile, the Rams have the unholy amalgamation of Nick Foles and Case Keenum as their quarterback. *Shudder* -DK

Washington is 0-5 on the road. The Bears are 1-5 at home. Edge: Bears (???????). -JD