Arguably no team turned more heads in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft than the Dallas Cowboys. It wasn’t who they chose that raised eyebrows, however, but where. With the No. 4 overall pick, the Cowboys selected Ezekiel Elliott, the first running back to be drafted in the top five in four years.
Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott need to succeed for the sake of the 2017 running back draft class
Drafting a running back in the first round is a big risk, and there have been far more misses than hits in recent years.


Elliott might not be an anomaly, though. He was the consensus top running back in this year’s draft and the only one expected to be a first-rounder, but next year’s running back class is even more loaded.
Leonard Fournette (LSU), Dalvin Cook (Florida State), Nick Chubb (Georgia) and Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) all had monster performances in 2015, and will be looking to solidify their draft stock this season. Fournette finished third in the nation with 1,953 rushing yards, behind only Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and Heisman runner-up McCaffrey.
Cook battled through nagging injuries to carry the Seminoles’ offense and lead the ACC with 20 total touchdowns. McCaffrey emerged as one of the nation’s most versatile weapons, breaking Barry Sanders’ record for most all-purpose yards in a season (3,864). Chubb is a bit of a question mark since he’s recovering from a serious knee injury, but when healthy he seamlessly filled Todd Gurley’s shoes for the Bulldogs.
All four players are projected to go in the first round in SB Nation’s 2017 mock draft.
But how much draft capital are teams willing to spend on running backs, and should fans even get excited about taking them early?
The decline of the first-round RB
Drafting a running back in the first round has a lot of stigma these days. The position has a short shelf life due to injuries and wear and tear, while the rise of the passing game has led to a lower emphasis on rushing.
The truth is, first-round running backs have had a tough time in recent years. Between 2010-12, seven running backs were selected in the first round.
Best and Wilson’s careers were unfortunately cut short by concussions and neck injuries, respectively, but even without those two this is not a terribly inspiring group of players. Mathews struggled with injuries during his time in San Diego (in 2012 he had more broken collarbones than touchdowns) and was bogged down in a committee with the Philadelphia Eagles last season. Spiller also had injury problems over the years, and as a non-factor in his first season in New Orleans he appears to have already reached the journeyman phase of his career.
Spiller’s teammate Ingram is a reliable starter but hit his ceiling some time ago, topping off with 964 rushing yards in 2014. Martin is the only one who developed into a true franchise running back, and even he had two awful years sandwiched in between his rookie season and contract year. And, of course, there’s Richardson, possibly the most notorious draft bust of the 2010s (at least before Johnny Manziel came around).
After 2012, it seemed clear that teams were buying into the “don’t draft a running back early” theory. No running backs went in the first round in 2013 and 2014, with teams opting to wait until the second round or later to address the position. This isn’t to say those were bad classes -- Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Latavius Murray, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde all emerged as quality starters.
At that point, it seemed like the age of the first-round running back was coming to an end. Then one special talent the next year may have reversed the trend: Todd Gurley.
The Gurley experiment
As a pure talent, Gurley is the complete package. He has strength, he has speed, he can catch the ball and he can block. He has all the ingredients teams want out of an every-down workhorse. The only red flag he had was a major one -- the torn ACL he suffered in his final year at the University of Georgia.
Despite the injury risk, the Rams took the plunge at No. 10 and were rewarded with the 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year. If Gurley can stay healthy -- he had turf toe problems toward the end of his rookie year, so that’s still a big “if” -- he looks to terrorize opposing defenses for years to come.
So if Gurley is proof of a highly drafted running back paying immediate dividends, what is the opposite of that? It would have to be Melvin Gordon, selected No. 15 overall by the San Diego Chargers after they traded up two picks to get him. Still looking for a proper successor to LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers turned to Gordon, but he had a miserable rookie year. He totaled just 641 rushing yards on 3.5 yards per attempt, failed to score a touchdown, fumbled six times and lost playing time to Danny Woodhead in the process. He was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury near the end of the year and missed the final two games.
Gordon wasn’t helped by a subpar supporting cast -- the Chargers’ offensive line was decimated by injuries, and the defense surrendered the 12th-most points in the league, leaving them with few opportunities to establish a ground game.
It’s too early to write off Gordon, but he needs to prove he can be a reliable weapon on the ground for the Chargers, and fast.
A new golden age?
That brings us to 2016. In a vacuum, it’s easy to dismiss Elliott as a classic Jerry Jones pick -- all sizzle, no steak -- but Elliott is in the perfect position to succeed. As a great runner and elite blocker, Elliott has the tools to play on every down and should feast behind Dallas’ stout offensive line. He’s in the right place at the right time, and sometimes that’s all a draft prospect needs to shine.
Overall, running backs haven’t had a high hit rate in the first round, and there are plenty of reasons for teams and fans to be skeptical. However, we could be looking at a new golden age of running backs -- depending on how much the most recent first-round running backs produce next season.
Gurley and Elliott have tons of potential, and both players will carry big loads in 2016. Gurley will be tasked with taking the pressure off rookie quarterback Jared Goff, while Elliott will attempt to become the DeMarco Murray replacement Dallas has been searching for.
But then there’s Gordon. Although he still has time to develop, his rookie year left a lot to be desired, and until he shows real progress he’ll be held up as the counterargument against taking a running back. Teams will have to consider this risk when they evaluate running backs in the future.
Right now, the ball is in Gurley and Elliott’s court. If they live up to the hype and help their teams win, they could signal a change in how the NFL approaches running backs in the first round. That’s good news for the incoming 2017 class, provided they hold up their end of the bargain and pick up where they left off when the new college football season rolls around.











