Nyquist has not lost in any of the eight races he's run. Why should it be any different when he enters the 2016 Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico? That's the way most of the experts are picking the 1-3/16-mile race to go, as well.
2016 Preakness picks and predictions: Nyquist won over doubters with his Kentucky Derby win
Nyquist may not have been tabbed by all the experts at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, but most of them have changed their tune as the Triple Crown turns to Pimlico.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
For instance, nine of the 11 experts the Louisville Courier-Journal polled took Nyquist, the 3-5 morning line favorite for the race. One took Exaggerator and another Stradivari, who have odds set at 3-1 and 8-1, respectively.
C-J's Jonathan Lintner picked Nyquist as well, saying he went against him in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, but, "You can't really knock him and I don't think anybody in this field is better than him or is capable of running a better race than him."
However, Joe Kristufek of Churchill Downs told the newspaper: “Stradivari’s Keeneland allowance win was one of the most visually impressive performances by any racehorse this season. He’s rested, well drawn on the outside and the price will be fair enough to take a shot against the champ.”
In a video, the Baltimore Sun’s Childs Walker followed the odds with his picks, taking Nyquist, Exaggerator and Stradivari to win, place and show.
At the New York Times, the two picks were split: Joe Drape took Exaggerator and Melissa Hoppert tabbed Nyquist.
Hoppert wrote, “Hope we can all agree now that he is the real deal. Rain should not dampen his Triple Crown quest.”
Drape weighed in, “Gritty colt who always comes a-running. Here’s hoping the fifth time is a charm when it comes to vanquishing Nyquist.”
At America’s Best Racing, Dan Tordjman didn’t so much pick Cherry Wine to actually win so much as he recommended betting on him for the value of the proposition. “With rain in the forecast all day on Saturday, you’ve got to make assessments based on past performances over a sloppy track. Cherry Wine broke his maiden with a nine-length victory at Churchill over a sloppy track. Since then, he’s improved with every race, most recently nearly holding on for second in the Blue Grass Stakes.”
The Lady and the Track blog also took Nyquist to win, explaining he ran the fastest opening half-mile since 2004 and still managed to avoid collapsing down the stretch when it counted. "Upsets will happen. In this instance though, pace handicapping logic and history work so much in favor of Nyquist that it does not make sense to oppose him at the windows. Team O'Neill is in a good position for their second Preakness victory."
“The Trackman” at Horse Racing Nation took the favorite, for similar reasoning. He said of Nyquist’s Kentucky Derby victory, “After tracking a quick, aggressive early pace, this son of Uncle Mo got to the front in the stretch, widened his lead down the long Churchill straightaway and then had ample in reserve to hold late. Don’t be fooled into thinking he won because of the bias, no such case, he won because he was by far the best horse. He’s still a fresh runner, having raced only three times this year, a major plus. Count ‘em up folks, 8 wins, seven of them either Grade 1 or 2 events. He’s produced every time thus far, hard to fathom why he can’t do it again.”
As for us, we took Nyquist to win, too. His victories haven’t come by the widest margins, but he’s given absolutely no reason to doubt he’d better than anyone in the field. Don’t overthink it.
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