Fantasy football 2016: 2nd-year breakout candidates

Fantasy draft season is heating up and we’re all looking for the next big thing. Usually that means rookies, but what if the next big thing is actually a player entering their second season? Some hit the proverbial rookie wall and others barely saw the field due to injury. What will they do as sophomores? We take a look at 12 players who could break out in their second fantasy football campaign.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans

Mariota was up and down in his 12 starts but his transition to the NFL was impressive. The knee sprains he suffered on two occasions caused him to miss four games and no doubt held him back.

Mariota’s mobility and running ability enhance his value and should continue to supersize his fantasy numbers. The Titans receivers are talented but have yet to break out. With another offseason of experience, Mariota should improve the passing offense. The real help should come from the backfield additions of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. They will take pressure off the passing game and help balance the offense.

Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks

He almost doesn’t deserve to be on this list after rushing for 830 yards and scoring five touchdowns. He broke his ankle near the end of 2015 and missed the final three games, which cut short his rookie season.

Seattle drafted three running backs but they should complement Rawls, not take over his starting gig. The offensive line remains a question mark and may need time to gel before establishing itself. Seattle became more of a passing offense in 2015 out of necessity. I believe Rawls will bring back the balance of a strong running game, as long as he stays healthy.

Matt Jones, Washington

Now that Alfred Morris is in Dallas, Jones looks to inherit the role of lead back in the Washington offense. Jones showed great potential as a rookie but averaged only 3.4 yards per carry.

He’s a big back at 6’1, 235 lbs, which helps him to punish and break tackles. Jones is part of a promising offense, so he won’t have to carry the offense alone. With his receiving skills, Jones will have the ability to be a three-down back. He definitely is worth more in PPR leagues. Jones has company in the backfield with Chris Thompson, but it would be surprising for him to lose the starting job. My biggest worry is injury. Jones physical running style increases his chance of injury and he already missed three games last season.

Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears

Langford should take over the starting role with Matt Forte moving on to New York. In the three games that Forte missed with injury, Langford scored in all of them and starred against the St. Louis Rams and San Diego Chargers. The Bears did not seem completely comfortable with him as their starter, as they did chase C.J. Anderson in free agency.

Langford has the potential to be a top-10 back, as long as the Bears stay away from a RBBC. He’s strong in short-yardage situations and takes good care of the ball. He needs to work on his hands, if he wants to be a true three-down back. There is competition in the backfield with Ka’Deem Carey and the addition of rookie Jordan Howard. Langford remains the most complete of the three but could be unseated with a poor showing.

Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns

Hue Jackson will bring his Bengals offense to Cleveland and turn Johnson into a version of Giovani Bernard. The trouble Johnson faces is sharing the backfield with Isaiah Crowell. Crowell is the bigger back and might steal the majority of early-down carries.

Johnson is an excellent receiver and has the ability to start, if Crowell goes down with an injury or disappoints. Despite sharing time, Johnson will go over 1,000 yards combined rushing/receiving and holds great value in PPR leagues. I’m fully in the mindset that Johnson’s numbers will go up in every single stat with Jackson running the offense.

Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers

He was a major disappointment as a rookie, fumbling six times and failing to score any touchdowns. The Chargers offensive line didn’t provide much help to Gordon at all. The Chargers rushing offense finished next-to-last in rushing yards in 2015. It didn’t help that they were playing from behind in the majority of games.

The good news is that the team hasn’t brought in any competition at the position. The backfield remains Gordon, Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver. The schedule is favorable with three of the worst rush defenses on tap. The veteran offense should bounce back and with increased balance, Gordon will have the opportunity to face some easier defensive fronts. Don’t expect much from Gordon in the passing game, as Woodhead remains a dynamic pass catcher.

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions

Abdullah had a complete roller coaster of a season. His early-season struggles had everything to do with drops and fumbles. He turned it around later in the year, averaging close to 5 yards per carry. The fumble issue might be a continuing concern throughout his career.

He’ll receive every opportunity to receive the majority of carries in the Detroit offense this season. Abdullah is fast and elusive, two qualities that can cover many deficiencies. His use in the receiving game will be limited because Theo Riddick has that covered. Detroit reinforced its offensive line through the draft. Here’s hoping that it results in a stronger push for Abdullah and the running game.

Honorable mentions: Jay Ajayi, T.J. Yeldon, Javorius Allen

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

Parker struggled to find the field his rookie year because of foot surgery. When he did get established, that’s when the magic happened. The Dolphins have a new coach and he’s really good at building an offense.

Parker is big and fast, like a young A.J. Green. The Miami passing offense will soar to new heights with Adam Gase directing it. Despite the multitude of options, Parker will finish with around 70 catches, 1,150 yards and 7 touchdowns. Parker is one of my favorite targets in drafts this season.

Kevin White, Chicago Bears

White missed all of the 2015 season with a stress fracture in his leg. The Bears really missed him but he’s fully recovered and ready to play in 2016. White immediately slots in as the starter across from Alshon Jeffery.

White’s standout feature is his hands, which along with his size gives him a huge catch radius. He doesn’t have to be the man with Jeffery taking priority coverage over to his side of the field. I think White will catch 80 receptions with 900 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Chicago offense seems like it’s in a transition period but White looks like the future.

Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee Titans

He showed rust in his rookie season but eventually got hot in the second half of the season. His huge size and athleticism create major mismatches for defensive backs. Tennessee’s offense is still developing, so hopefully Green-Beckham continues to put in the needed work.

DGB was surprisingly the Titans’ leading wide receiver in 2015. He can battle for contested passes and aggressively attack jump balls. I believe Green-Beckham will catch 70 passes for 950 yards and 6 touchdowns. The improved running game will help a lot but shouldn’t take much away from DGB’s stats.

Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens

Another receiver that missed all of the 2015 season because of injury. Perriman is raw and could have definitely used a full season under his belt. During the 2016 season, he’ll look much like a rookie because of his developmental status. Sadly, the Ravens need him to perform more like a veteran.

The upside is that he might receive a lot of playing time because he’s needed that badly. I feel Perriman will catch 30 balls for 400 yards and four touchdowns. Mike Wallace, Steve Smith and Kamar Aiken will take the majority of the targets to start the season, but watch out for Perriman in the second half of the season.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Lockett is a speed demon and used that speed to score eight touchdowns last year. The Seahawks use him like a secret weapon and he hurts defenses in a multitude of ways. He’s not big, but some of the best receivers in the league are about the same size as him.

It remains to be seen whether the Seattle offense will continue to lean a little more towards the pass. Regardless, I think Lockett will lead the Seahawks in receiving with 90 receptions, 1,050 yards and 11 touchdowns. Leagues that use return yards will boost Lockett’s value into a WR1.