At this point in the 2016 season, six teams had an S&P+ rating of plus-22.3 or higher (meaning they were measured as 22.3 points or better than the average FBS team), including all four eventual College Football Playoff participants. Louisville was No. 7 at plus-21.4.
130-team S&P+ rankings, in which Wisconsin chose a perfect year to make a run
There might not be any truly elite teams, but someone’s still going to win the national title.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
Your current No. 1 team for 2017, Ohio State, would have ranked eighth at plus-21.3. Wisconsin is almost literally the same team this year (plus-18.6) as last year (plus-19.2), only the Badgers were 10th in 2016. They’re third this time around.
When you look at the updated S&P+ rankings below, keep that in mind. As strange as the top 10 may look to you — there are currently four two-loss teams among the top seven — realize that the problem isn’t with those teams, it’s that there’s no blatantly obvious top tier this season.
This is an absolutely perfect season for a team like Wisconsin to make a run. The Badgers might not be as good as the typical Elite Team, but they’ve been as good as anyone else in 2017, and if they can pull a slight upset over the Buckeyes in next week’s Big Ten title game, they could have a legitimately solid chance of making noise.
A reminder: S&P+ is intended to be predictive and forward looking.
Good predictive ratings are not résumé ratings, and they don’t give you bonus points for wins and losses. They simply compare expected output to actual output and adjust accordingly. That’s how Ohio State can remain No. 1 despite a pair of losses. That’s how Auburn doesn’t automatically hop Alabama after a head-to-head win.
If you’re interested in a decent résumé ranking of sorts, I encourage you to visit this post on strength of schedule: I created a Resume S&P+ ranking, and it is updated through Week 13. It paints no clearer a picture but might make more sense from a transitive perspective.
Below, however, are the predictive ratings, the actual S&P+.
(You can find full unit rankings, plus a yearly archive, at Football Outsiders. Also, if the chart below isn’t loading friendly on your mobile device, that Football Outsiders link should work.)
Post-bowl S&P+ rankings
Team | Rec. | S&P+ | Rk | Last Wk | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 12-1 | 20.8 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Ohio State | 12-2 | 20.8 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Georgia | 13-1 | 18.6 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Penn State | 11-2 | 17.2 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Washington | 10-3 | 16.7 | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| Wisconsin | 13-1 | 16.6 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Central Florida | 13-0 | 15.4 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| Clemson | 12-2 | 15.3 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Oklahoma | 12-2 | 15.0 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| Auburn | 10-4 | 14.2 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Florida Atlantic | 11-3 | 13.4 | 11 | 12 | 1 |
| Oklahoma State | 10-3 | 13.1 | 12 | 11 | -1 |
| Notre Dame | 10-3 | 11.2 | 13 | 14 | 1 |
| TCU | 11-3 | 11.0 | 14 | 13 | -1 |
| South Florida | 10-2 | 10.4 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Louisville | 8-5 | 9.3 | 16 | 17 | 1 |
| Miami-FL | 10-3 | 9.2 | 17 | 19 | 2 |
| Appalachian State | 9-4 | 9.1 | 18 | 35 | 17 |
| Michigan State | 10-3 | 9.1 | 19 | 27 | 8 |
| Memphis | 10-3 | 9.1 | 20 | 18 | -2 |
| LSU | 9-4 | 9.1 | 21 | 20 | -1 |
| Ohio | 9-4 | 8.8 | 22 | 33 | 11 |
| Boise State | 11-3 | 8.1 | 23 | 28 | 5 |
| Fresno State | 10-4 | 8.1 | 24 | 25 | 1 |
| Arkansas State | 7-5 | 8.1 | 25 | 23 | -2 |
| USC | 11-3 | 8.1 | 26 | 22 | -4 |
| Michigan | 8-5 | 7.8 | 27 | 21 | -6 |
| Mississippi State | 9-4 | 7.8 | 28 | 26 | -2 |
| Virginia Tech | 9-4 | 7.6 | 29 | 24 | -5 |
| Toledo | 11-3 | 7.5 | 30 | 16 | -14 |
| Troy | 11-2 | 7.4 | 31 | 37 | 6 |
| Stanford | 9-5 | 7.1 | 32 | 30 | -2 |
| Utah | 7-6 | 6.9 | 33 | 39 | 6 |
| San Diego State | 10-3 | 6.6 | 34 | 38 | 4 |
| Missouri | 7-6 | 6.4 | 35 | 32 | -3 |
| Houston | 7-5 | 6.4 | 36 | 29 | -7 |
| Wake Forest | 8-5 | 6.0 | 37 | 36 | -1 |
| NC State | 9-4 | 5.9 | 38 | 45 | 7 |
| Washington State | 9-4 | 5.4 | 39 | 31 | -8 |
| Southern Miss | 8-5 | 5.2 | 40 | 34 | -6 |
| Purdue | 7-6 | 5.1 | 41 | 41 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | 6-6 | 5.0 | 42 | 46 | 4 |
| Florida State | 7-6 | 4.9 | 43 | 51 | 8 |
| Iowa State | 8-5 | 4.8 | 44 | 44 | 0 |
| Colorado State | 7-6 | 4.7 | 45 | 42 | -3 |
| Northwestern | 10-3 | 4.7 | 46 | 43 | -3 |
| Oregon | 7-6 | 4.7 | 47 | 40 | -7 |
| Arizona | 7-6 | 4.1 | 48 | 49 | 1 |
| Iowa | 8-5 | 3.8 | 49 | 47 | -2 |
| Texas | 7-6 | 3.7 | 50 | 54 | 4 |
| Indiana | 5-7 | 3.5 | 51 | 50 | -1 |
| Marshall | 8-5 | 3.5 | 52 | 58 | 6 |
| Wyoming | 8-5 | 3.4 | 53 | 61 | 8 |
| Northern Illinois | 8-5 | 3.3 | 54 | 48 | -6 |
| UTSA | 6-5 | 3.3 | 55 | 52 | -3 |
| Miami-OH | 5-7 | 3.2 | 56 | 53 | -3 |
| Utah State | 6-7 | 2.8 | 57 | 55 | -2 |
| Texas Tech | 6-7 | 2.8 | 58 | 57 | -1 |
| Army | 10-3 | 2.1 | 59 | 59 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 9-4 | 2.0 | 60 | 66 | 6 |
| Texas A&M | 7-6 | 2.0 | 61 | 64 | 3 |
| North Texas | 9-5 | 1.9 | 62 | 56 | -6 |
| West Virginia | 7-6 | 1.6 | 63 | 62 | -1 |
| Kansas State | 8-5 | 1.3 | 64 | 65 | 1 |
| Duke | 7-6 | 1.2 | 65 | 70 | 5 |
| Boston College | 7-6 | 1.0 | 66 | 67 | 1 |
| SMU | 7-6 | 0.9 | 67 | 60 | -7 |
| Middle Tennessee | 7-6 | 0.9 | 68 | 71 | 3 |
| Navy | 7-6 | 0.9 | 69 | 78 | 9 |
| Eastern Michigan | 5-7 | 0.9 | 70 | 68 | -2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 7-6 | 0.8 | 71 | 80 | 9 |
| New Mexico State | 7-6 | 0.6 | 72 | 69 | -3 |
| Georgia Tech | 5-6 | 0.5 | 73 | 72 | -1 |
| Western Michigan | 6-6 | 0.2 | 74 | 74 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 6-6 | 0.2 | 75 | 76 | 1 |
| UAB | 8-5 | 0.1 | 76 | 63 | -13 |
| UCLA | 6-7 | 0.1 | 77 | 75 | -2 |
| Temple | 7-6 | -0.2 | 78 | 86 | 8 |
| Central Michigan | 8-5 | -0.7 | 79 | 73 | -6 |
| Vanderbilt | 5-7 | -1.2 | 80 | 81 | 1 |
| Arizona State | 7-6 | -1.4 | 81 | 79 | -2 |
| Pittsburgh | 5-7 | -1.5 | 82 | 82 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6-7 | -1.8 | 83 | 84 | 1 |
| Massachusetts | 4-8 | -1.8 | 84 | 85 | 1 |
| Virginia | 6-7 | -1.9 | 85 | 77 | -8 |
| Florida | 4-7 | -2.2 | 86 | 87 | 1 |
| California | 5-7 | -2.5 | 87 | 88 | 1 |
| Syracuse | 4-8 | -2.7 | 88 | 89 | 1 |
| Tulane | 5-7 | -2.8 | 89 | 90 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 7-6 | -3.1 | 90 | 94 | 4 |
| Arkansas | 4-8 | -3.2 | 91 | 92 | 1 |
| Florida International | 8-5 | -3.2 | 92 | 83 | -9 |
| Colorado | 5-7 | -3.2 | 93 | 91 | -2 |
| North Carolina | 3-9 | -3.6 | 94 | 93 | -1 |
| UNLV | 5-7 | -4.4 | 95 | 95 | 0 |
| Georgia State | 7-5 | -4.7 | 96 | 101 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 5-7 | -4.8 | 97 | 96 | -1 |
| South Alabama | 4-8 | -4.9 | 98 | 97 | -1 |
| Idaho | 4-8 | -5.2 | 99 | 98 | -1 |
| Air Force | 5-7 | -5.4 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
| BYU | 4-9 | -5.4 | 101 | 99 | -2 |
| Cincinnati | 4-8 | -5.8 | 102 | 103 | 1 |
| Nebraska | 4-8 | -5.9 | 103 | 102 | -1 |
| New Mexico | 3-9 | -6.1 | 104 | 104 | 0 |
| UL-Monroe | 4-8 | -6.4 | 105 | 105 | 0 |
| Baylor | 1-11 | -6.5 | 106 | 106 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 4-8 | -6.9 | 107 | 107 | 0 |
| Nevada | 3-9 | -7.2 | 108 | 108 | 0 |
| Bowling Green | 2-10 | -7.2 | 109 | 109 | 0 |
| Rutgers | 4-8 | -7.4 | 110 | 111 | 1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 3-9 | -8.0 | 111 | 112 | 1 |
| Akron | 7-7 | -8.5 | 112 | 110 | -2 |
| UL-Lafayette | 5-7 | -8.6 | 113 | 113 | 0 |
| Maryland | 4-8 | -8.8 | 114 | 114 | 0 |
| Old Dominion | 5-7 | -9.7 | 115 | 115 | 0 |
| Tulsa | 2-10 | -9.9 | 116 | 116 | 0 |
| Texas State | 2-10 | -10.1 | 117 | 117 | 0 |
| Illinois | 2-10 | -11.0 | 118 | 118 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 3-9 | -11.4 | 119 | 119 | 0 |
| Georgia Southern | 2-10 | -11.6 | 120 | 120 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 3-9 | -11.8 | 121 | 121 | 0 |
| Ball State | 2-10 | -13.3 | 122 | 122 | 0 |
| East Carolina | 3-9 | -13.9 | 123 | 123 | 0 |
| Charlotte | 1-11 | -14.6 | 124 | 124 | 0 |
| Kansas | 1-11 | -14.7 | 125 | 125 | 0 |
| Kent State | 2-10 | -14.9 | 126 | 127 | 1 |
| Oregon State | 1-11 | -14.9 | 127 | 126 | -1 |
| Rice | 1-11 | -15.0 | 128 | 128 | 0 |
| San Jose State | 2-11 | -16.2 | 129 | 129 | 0 |
| UTEP | 0-12 | -18.5 | 130 | 130 | 0 |
We head into Championship Week with no certainties whatsoever
- Big 12 title game combatants Oklahoma and TCU are separated by 3.9.
- In the ACC title game, Clemson and Miami are separated by 3.1 points.
- In the Big Ten title game, Ohio State and Wisconsin are separated by 2.7 points, and the team ahead in the rankings (OSU) has two more losses than its opponent.
- In the Pac-12 title game, USC and Stanford are separated by 1.6 points.
- In the SEC title game, Georgia and Auburn are separated by 1.1, and the team ahead in the rankings (UGA) is the team that lost the first game between the two.
I’m not sure I can remember a season in which we headed into the final weekend with this many unknowns, and that’s before we even try to tackle how the CFP committee is going to view one-loss teams like Miami and Alabama or two-loss teams like Auburn and Ohio State. Buckle up.
The week’s top movers (good)
- Iowa (up 14 spots, from 62nd to 48th)
- Oregon (up 13 spots, from 52nd to 39th)
- Troy (up 11 spots, from 37th to 26th)
- Virginia Tech (up nine spots, from 33rd to 24th)
- Utah State (up nine spots, from 64th to 55th)
- UAB (up nine spots, from 71st to 62nd)
- Louisiana Tech (up nine spots, from 89th to 80th)
- Vanderbilt (up nine spots, from 90th to 81st)
- Temple (up nine spots, from 94th to 85th)
Iowa has been all over the damn map in 2017, but after an absolute trouncing of Nebraska, the Hawkeyes, who plummeted out of the top 60 in the weeks following their stunning blowout of Ohio State, returned to the top 50. For a team with such a conservative reputation, they have been hilariously volatile and unpredictable this year.
Top movers (bad)
- West Virginia (down 18 spots, from 43rd to 61st)
- Georgia Tech (down 14 spots, from 56th to 70th)
- Washington State (down 14 spots, from 19th to 33rd)
- NIU (down 13 spots, from 36th to 49th)
- Virginia (down 12 spots, from 65th to 77th)
- Minnesota (down 12 spots, from 85th to 97th)
- UTSA (down 11 spots, from 41st to 52nd)
- Colorado (down nine spots, from 82nd to 91st)
- Mississippi State (down eight spots, from 20th to 28th)
- Navy (down eight spots, from 70th to 78th)
Quarterback injuries will get you. Just two weeks ago, WVU ranked 33rd. The Mountaineers lost Will Grier to injury early last week ... and are suddenly 61st after duds against Texas and Oklahoma.
No top team, no top conference
It stands to reason that if there are no truly elite teams, the conference averages aren’t going to produce any standouts either.
FBS conferences, ranked by average S&P+ rating:
- SEC (plus-4.8)
- Big Ten (plus-3.8)
- ACC (plus-3.6)
- Big 12 (plus-3.4)
- Pac-12 (plus-2.9)
- AAC (plus-0.0)
- MAC (minus-1.6)
- MWC (minus-1.7)
- Conference USA (minus-2.4)
- Sun Belt (minus-3.3)
The SEC remains the king of the middleweights, but with four different conferences within 1.4 points of the lead, bowl season could produce any number of rankings shifts.
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