NFL Panic Index 2017, Week 16: Patriots’ road to the Super Bowl just got easier

Eli Rogers thinks the Steelers will handle the Patriots should the teams meet again in the postseason. Recent history doesn’t bear that theory out.

It’s been nearly 20 years since Pittsburgh was able to beat New England in the playoffs. Tom Brady is 3-0 against the Steelers in the second season, and now he’s got the inside track to ensure Rogers and his cohort have to travel to a raucous Gillette Stadium for a potential showdown in the AFC Championship Game. Home wins over the Bills and Jets will ensure the path to the conference title cuts through Massachusetts.

That’s what happened last winter, and it ended in a 36-17 victory for the home team, the final step on a journey to the greatest comeback in NFL history two weeks later. It’s a familiar feeling for Pittsburgh and its fans — since that January 1998 playoff win, the Steelers are just 3-11 against Bob Kraft’s franchise.

There are still a couple of downsides for the Patriots. New England is actually better on the road (7-1, with wins over the Saints and Steelers) than it is at home (4-2). Sunday’s win also gave Brady the inside track in the league’s MVP race, which is a blessing AND a curse; no NFL MVP has won the Super Bowl in the same year since Kurt Warner did it in 1999.

Panic index: Everyone outside of New England is getting sick of the Patriots — especially the players who have to deal with them in January. Sunday’s loss just added more momentum behind the Pats’ quest to repeat as champions.

Antonio Brown was solidifying his case for the MVP award when he went down two minutes into the second quarter of the Steelers’ Sunday loss to the Patriots. Not coincidentally, Ben Roethlisberger got sacked on the next play, at the Patriots’ 25-yard line, and a promising touchdown drive ended with a field goal instead.

That wasn’t the only drive where the Steelers missed their MVP.

It’s hard not to think that might have been a touchdown instead of game-sealing interception, even with the confusion between the QB and the sideline over whether or not spike it.

The Steelers have plenty of talent on offense, but there’s no one-to-one replacement for what Brown brings to the field. Now, he’s got a partially torn calf muscle, and probably won’t play for the last two regular season games, which fortunately for the Steelers are against the Texans and Browns.

Panic index: Brown is supposedly going to be back for the playoffs, which is good news for the Steelers. If that assessment turns out to be wrong, well, it’s not going to be a very fun January in Pittsburgh.

We wanted to believe in you, Chargers. You were healthy. You had won four in a row. You hadn’t missed a potential game-winning kick in a couple months. It looked like maybe, just maybe, you could steal the AFC West right out from under the Chiefs. Instead, in your biggest game of the season and perhaps the one that determines if you’ll be playing in January, you fell on your faces.

On Saturday night, the Chargers lost, 30-13, to the Chiefs — their eighth straight loss to Kansas City. LA looked more like the team that began the season 0-4 alongside the Browns and Giants than the one from just a week before: a team that had its shit together and was one of the hottest in the entire NFL.

Philip Rivers, who had us starting an MVP campaign, threw three picks. Top receiver Keenan Allen, who has yet to play a full 16-game season, was carted off with a back injury. Tight end Hunter Henry, who has become Rivers’ favorite big-bodied target, lacerated his kidney. Running back Austin Ekeler, who has emerged as a fun-to-watch rookie, fumbled and broke his hand on the same play. Kicker Travis Coons, who had yet to miss an extra point attempt .... well, you can guess it, he missed a PAT.

And just like that, Coons was out of a job:

Now the Chargers are on their fourth kicker of the year, Nick Rose — someone they’re hoping will stick around for the long term.

Still, blowing opportunities, injuries piling up, changing kickers ... we thought the Chargers had grown up, but they just seem to have reverted back to their old screwup selves.

Panic index: The Chargers aren’t out of it, but they need a lot of help to make the playoffs. More than anything, we’re just disappointed in them.

Don’t look now, but Blake Bortles is having a very good run as the Jaguars starting quarterback. In some respects, he’s been the best QB in the NFL over the last month.

Last Sunday’s win over the Cardinals clinched a playoff berth for the Jags, their first in a decade. That, combined with Bortles’ play down the stretch, is setting up a familiar scenario, something that could change Jacksonville’s offseason plans for the quarterback position.

January 2013. That’s when the Joe Flacco #elite narrative caught fire, right after the Ravens won the Super Bowl thanks in large part to Flacco’s incredible four-game run through the playoffs. He threw for 1,140 yards, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 117.2 QB rating.

Despite that, his career had been pretty mediocre until then. And it was after that, too. Except he had a fat new contract, a six-year, $120 million drag on the Ravens salary cap.

Bortles is Flacco-ing. True, he’ll have to do this in playoffs, when it really counts toward #eliteness, but if he does that, could it mean more Bortles in Jacksonville beyond 2018?

Panic index: He’s got one more year on his contract, the fifth-year option the team picked up, worth $19 million fully guaranteed. Technically, the Jags wouldn’t have to make a decision until after next season at the latest. Is the team willing to bet a gazillion dollars that Bortles’ problems really are fixed?

It doesn’t matter how much Marvin Lewis tries to walk back the rumors about his time in Cincinnati coming to an end. We all know it’s coming. And that means that the Bengals are in the market for a new head coach. Could they bring back a familiar face to replace Lewis?

Hue Jackson was with the Bengals from 2012 through 2015 as an assistant and special teams coach, the running backs coach, and finally their offensive coordinator. He was hired away by the Browns to take over their mess of a team. It hasn’t gotten any less messy since Jackson arrived in Cleveland.

Owner Jimmy Haslam says the Browns will stick with Jackson. But we all know that may not be the case. So what if the Browns decide to trade Jackson to the Bengals?

The Bengals were last competitive in 2015 — when Jackson was there. They went to the postseason during every year that Jackson was on staff. But that was obviously not in a head coaching role. Jackson’s record as a head coach is 9-37.

Panic index: It’s up in the air whether Jackson will be back in Cleveland for another season. Marvin Lewis is almost certainly out the door. But these two Ohio teams couldn’t even pull together a trade for AJ McCarron before the deadline when the details were already worked out. It’s probably not going to happen.

The Titans lost on a game-winning field goal against the 49ers on Sunday, putting them at 8-6 on the season and two games behind the Jaguars in the AFC South.

They’re starting to flirt with failure again. After Marcus Mariota was lost for the season near the end of last year, the Titans barely missed the playoffs. They came into this season with higher expectations, and haven’t quite met them, fluctuating week in and week out.

Things aren’t going well for them offensively, either. They’ve put up a combined 30 points the past two weeks against the Cardinals and 49ers — teams that aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts.

Rishard Matthews was asked if he felt they were too predictable. He said, “Yeah, I believe so.”

Currently, they still hold the No. 5 and first Wild Card spot in the AFC, with the Bills and Ravens right behind them also at 8-6. They hold a tiebreaker over those teams based on best win percentage in conference games, but with two more weeks of football, all of that can change.

Panic index: The Titans have games against the Rams and Jaguars to finish the season. Unless they play their best football of the year, things could be looking bad for them.

Former second-round pick Roberto Aguayo landed on Carolina’s practice squad and had a chance at a fresh start with the Panthers. But the Panthers cut him last week. And suddenly the Buccaneers’ kicker curse seems to be back in full effect.

Tampa Bay had a shot to play spoiler against the Falcons on Monday night. It all came down to a field goal with six seconds on the clock to tie things up 24-24 and send the game to overtime.

But this one was doomed from the start. You can tell simply because this official randomly falls down on the line of scrimmage. It’s got to be the kicker curse.

Patrick Murray’s attempt went wide right. The Falcons won and headed back to Atlanta with postseason hopes intact.

Panic index: Don’t be silly. Curses aren’t real — unless you’re a Browns fan.