NASCAR 2017 season preview: Dale Earnhardt Jr. returns to a new set of rules

The NASCAR offseason often carries a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it feel, with so much happening in a short amount of time it gives the impression that there was hardly any downtime. This offseason was no different.

Not only did NASCAR introduce a new Cup Series entitlement sponsor, it also enacted sweeping changes to how it conducts national level races, and saw a couple of notable faces step away. But after all the turnover and much discourse of what NASCAR should do to give itself a jolt, the 2017 season has arrived. To get you ready, SB Nation breaks down everything you need to know, watch, and follow from now through the season-ending championship final.

New format

Wanting to better incentivize drivers to race hard from the drop of the green flag and for the duration of the regular season, along with giving fans a reason to invest their time from beginning to end, NASCAR will divide all Monster Energy Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Camping World Truck Series races into thirds. The first two segments will roughly cover half the scheduled distance, with the third the final half. Drivers will earn points for finishing in the top 10 in the first two segments, and whomever is leading when the stage concludes will receive a bonus point that will be applied toward their playoff total.

The format is a dramatic departure from how national tour events have run in the modern era, and will change both drivers’ mentality in how they race and incorporate a new strategic element crew chiefs must adapt to. Almost universally, drivers have spoken positively about the revised structure and believe it will enhance the on-track product. Whether that’s true is still to be determined, but no doubt it will be an adjustment period for all involved.

Jimmie Johnson’s pursuit of a record eighth championship

Following consecutive years of early and unexpected playoff eliminations, there were some who wondered if Jimmie Johnson would be annually stymied by the knockout format. Those doubts were resoundingly dismissed when, on the strength of three playoff wins, he barreled to a record-tying seventh championship. Now a member of an elite club with only Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt Sr. as members, Johnson is well-positioned to win an eighth title and further augment the case that he may be the greatest NASCAR driver of all-time.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. returns

NASCAR’s most popular driver 14 years running is back behind the wheel of the No. 88 car after missing the entire second half of last season with a concussion. It was Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s third concussion in four years and the second time he had been forced to miss action due to a head injury. Following an extensive rehabilitation program and a medically supervised test, he was cleared to resume racing in December, and the Daytona 500 Speedweeks will mark the first time he’s raced in a competitive environment since his diagnosis.

Whether Earnhardt, 42, has any rust to shake off remains to be seen, as does what happens the next time he’s involved in a serious accident. But without question, his return is welcome news for a sport that’s seen Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Gordon retire, and it’s always more compelling when its favorite son is in the news for what he’s doing on the track.

Barring unforeseen circumstances like injury or a complete drop in performance, these 12 drivers are near-certainties to earn a berth for the Cup Series playoffs.

The final four spots will come out of this group. For each, the path to the playoffs has significant hurdles that must be overcome, with doubt as to whether those hurdles can be cleared.

1. Kevin Harvick

Since Harvick and ace crew chief Rodney Childers formed a union in 2014 they’ve been a dynamic combination, 12 times never leading fewer than 1,300 laps. Even though Stewart-Haas Racing is switching to Ford after a long association with Chevrolet, by the start of the playoffs the organization should have sorted through the changeover, with Harvick up to his customary level of high performance.

2. Kyle Busch

The 2015 champ nearly went back to back, advancing to the title-deciding race before falling just short. Inconsistency used to be one of Busch’s trademarks, but since crew chief Adam Stevens took over two years ago, the No. 18 Toyota has become a fixture at the front every week. Expect that to continue with Busch putting forth another dominant season, and if all goes right a second championship.

3. Jimmie Johnson

As last year demonstrated, an outstanding driver paired with an outstanding crew chief are always going to be formidable, even if Hendrick Motorsports experiences a rare decline. Now that the organization had an offseason to fix what ailed it in 2016, the No. 48 Chevrolet should again be one of the cars everyone else is chasing.

4. Joey Logano

A lot of attention is paid to the young talent emerging within the sport, but Logano not only is young, the 26-year-old has already amassed a collection of accomplishments in NASCAR’s top division. His 15 Cup wins since 2013 only trails Johnson (20) and Harvick (16), and Logano’s victory tally also includes a Daytona 500 triumph and wins on every type of track on the schedule. He’s also qualified for a championship race in two out of three years.

Although overshadowed by Chase Elliott, who turned in one of the best freshman seasons during the playoff era, Ryan Blaney turned in a fine rookie season for himself with three top-fives and nine top-10 finishes. That he did so with a team that hadn’t run the full schedule in seven years — compared to Elliott, who filled the seat previously occupied by Jeff Gordon — only added to the scope of the accomplishment. That bodes well for a strong second season, where a bit more patience combined with experience should culminate in Blaney winning his first race.

When you’re anointed as Tony Stewart’s heir apparent, it comes with a certain expectation. A standard made all the higher considering Stewart-Haas Racing has developed into a top flight organization where there are no shortage of resources and winning is the standard. This is what Clint Bowyer faces, and it may be a bar he has trouble clearing — it’s been four years and 149 races since his last win. Now, that run of futility can be excused by a lot of factors out of his control, but it’s a streak that casts doubt whether Stewart’s handpicked successor can fulfill the expectations before him.

1. Erik Jones

Insiders tout Jones, 20, as a future Cup champion, and his record in Xfinity and trucks shows just how quickly he acclimates himself to stiffer competition. Expect a similar transition with plenty of highlights, and maybe even a couple trips to the winner’s circle.

2. Daniel Suarez

As opposed to Jones, Suarez is joining not only a brand-new team, but one that just missed winning the championship with Carl Edwards behind the wheel. The experience that surrounds him will help ease the transition and could be enough to take the Rookie of the Year crown if Jones falters.

3. Ty Dillon

Whereas Jones and Suarez are aligned with two organizations with a record of success, Dillon joins midsize Germain Racing. The team may have a closeknit alliance with Richard Childress Racing (owned by Dillon’s grandfather) but questions remain of just how consistently competitive Germain can be, something it’s never been able to do.

1. Chase Elliott

He came close to winning several times in 2016 with only circumstances out his control and inexperience keeping him out of victory lane. That won’t be the case this season. The 21-year should score multiple wins and emerge as a force.

2. Ryan Blaney

See above.

3. Erik Jones

Although he may tear up quite a bit of equipment due to a lack of patience and the learning curve associated with jumping from Xfinity to Cup, Jones’ speed is unmistakable. Working in his favor is the new segmented race format that rewards drivers who are fast in bursts, and not necessarily extended green-flag runs.

1. Kasey Kahne

That it’s been two-plus seasons and 83 races since Kahne notched a victory and failed to lead a single lap last season speaks volumes. And if that slump continues, speculation will only increase that Hendrick will make a move to replace him.

2. Danica Patrick

The crossover appeal Patrick once possessed has faded after subsequent years of mediocre results. It also doesn’t help that Nature’s Bakery’s sudden departure as anchor sponsor for the No. 10 team has left Patrick without adequate sponsorship for the majority of the season. If a suitable replacement cannot be found, and if Patrick continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Stewart-Haas makes the decision to find a driver who can better produce on the track.

3. Clint Bowyer

See above.