How much can NFL free agents expect to get paid in 2017?

Free agents get overpaid. It’s a reality that every team has to be OK with before stepping into the marketplace. The nature of 32 teams competing and the rising salary cap means higher price tags than seem justified.

That’s how unproven players like Brock Osweiler can cash in. The Houston Texans gave Osweiler — a player with seven career starts — a four-year, $72 million deal that didn’t work out at all for the team in 2016.

But that paints a picture of impending disaster for every shopper on the free agency market and that isn’t always the case. Future Hall of Famers Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were once available to all 32 teams and landed with the New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos, respectively — each helping lead their new teams to Super Bowl victories.

The consistent rise of the salary cap — which jumped from $123 million to $167 million in just four years — also means that a high-priced deal in 2017 may be closer to the league average in a few years.

This offseason, there are already reports that Ricky Wagner will receive a contract from the Detroit Lions that resets the market for right tackles, and Mike Glennon, a quarterback who has started just 18 games, may soon receive $15 million per year from the Bears.

Let’s take a look at the recent history of free agency and what it may mean for players who will hit the market Thursday:

The rising market for quarterbacks isn’t always as easy to figure out, because it’s rare that a starting talent ever hits the market. Last year, Osweiler was signed by the Texans to be a starter and Ryan Fitzpatrick received a one-year deal to return to the New York Jets in that role, but prior to that was three years of only backups reaching the open market.

The ability to sign a starter off the street is so rare that it forced the Texans to pay $18 million per year for Osweiler. That’s why a $15 million per year price tag for Glennon isn’t outrageous.

Thirteen NFL quarterbacks have contracts that average over $20 million. Another nine have deals that average $16 million or more. Giving Glennon $15 million per year isn’t a commitment as a franchise player to build around, but actually below the market value for a starting quarterback, making it more than affordable for a team that perceives him as such.

Glennon’s guaranteed money with the Bears is expected to be around $19 million, which gives Chciago very few ties to the quarterback beyond the immediate future and allows them to decide if he’s worth keeping around longer and for more.

While Tony Romo and Jay Cutler are no longer the players that they once were, they too are likely to get hefty deals. If Fitzpatrick received $12 million a year ago, Romo will probably receive more and Cutler could get a similar amount if a team perceives him as a bridge starter.

Adrian Peterson wants to find a big contract on the open market, but the unfortunate reality for him and all other running backs who will become a free agent is that there hasn’t ever been much of a market at the position.

Murray’s $8 million-per-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles was the richest, but he was a 27-year-old running back coming off a rushing title and still didn’t get as much as Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, and Peterson made at the time.

There is no Murray in this class.

Le’Veon Bell isn’t hitting the market and players like Eddie Lacy and LeGarrette Blount are much closer to the lackluster free agent groups of 2013 and 2014.

Some of the biggest misses ever in free agency have come at the wide receiver position. Mike Wallace headlines that list in recent history with the five-year, $60 million deal he received from the Miami Dolphins only to play two underwhelming seasons with the team.

There’s a sharp divide at the position between players considered to be starters and bona-fide No. 1 receivers. Wallace and Jeremy Maclin signed contracts that averaged more than $10 million per season, while the top receivers of a year ago came well under that mark but performed well in their new settings.

Alshon Jeffery has shown flashes as a No. 1 receiver, but with so many recent injuries his price tag likely comes closer to the $8 million per year that Jones received in 2016.

But the Los Angeles Rams reportedly agreed to a five-year, $39 million deal with Robert Woods, which will pay him just under $8 million per season — which has been a standard rate recently for No. 2 receivers. If a team is convinced it can rely on Jeffery, he could easily eclipse that mark.

With more money to go around and rising contracts, the real winners have been players in the trenches. Top deals for offensive linemen were typically reserved for blind-side protectors, but there has been a recent emphasis on spending across the entire line.

The Seattle Seahawks went with a cheap starting offensive line in 2016 and paid the price, showing how important it is to invest heavily up front. The Detroit Lions already hammered that point home by committing more than $9 million per year to Ricky Wagner to play right tackle.

Former Cincinnati Bengals guard Kevin Zeitler will be the next beneficiary of teams focusing their resources up front and is soon to receive to a deal worth more than $12 million per year from the Cleveland Browns.

Offensive line has seen a spike in prices, but landing a top defensive lineman is the coup de grâce of free agency. A year ago, the Giants and Jaguars each doled out $85 million contracts to bolster their defensive front.

Ndamukong Suh was a huge free agency winner, landing a monstrous $114.375 million deal from the Miami Dolphins, but there really isn’t close to an equivalent in 2017. Calais Campbell will soon receive $15 million per year from the Jaguars, which is close to the same amount Malik Jackson was given.

The other names to watch are former Ravens defensive tackle Brandon Williams and former Chiefs defensive tackle Dontari Poe, who can both provide an instant boost as run pluggers.

Not all linebackers are the same, which makes the market tougher to judge. At such a versatile position, the truly valued players have been ones who can also rush the passer.

Bruce Irvin’s $9.25 million average doesn’t really set the market unless teams believe that a player can provide the same edge-rushing skills that Irvin does.

While Dont’a Hightower is likely the top linebacker on the market in 2017, his skill set is more reminiscent of Derrick Johnson or Danny Trevathan, neither of whom came close to sniffing $10 million per year.

It’s a passing league and that means there’s also a tremendous emphasis on stopping the pass. No team showed that more than Washington in 2016, when the team scooped up Josh Norman for $15 million per year.

While Trumaine Johnson may be available for trade, the defensive back class is relatively thin and that means good things for former Cardinals safety Tony Jefferson and former Texans cornerback A.J. Bouye.

With so few other options, the pair saw skyrocketing prices and Jefferson is expected to land a rich deal with the Ravens. Bouye is likely to get an even bigger deal from a team in the AFC South other than the Texans.