NFL playoffs Panic Index 2018: The Patriots won’t win the Super Bowl, thanks to Alabama

You’ve all probably heard the four-words-including-a-hyphen phrase “modern-day football dynasty.” And it probably makes you roll your eyes to dangerously close to permanent levels, unless you’re a fan of one of the two teams that fit that description: the New England Patriots for the NFL and Alabama for college football. (If you’re a fan of both, may God have mercy on your soul.)

Since the days of Y2K, the Patriots have won five Super Bowls. Alabama has also won five titles, split between the BCS and College Football Playoff eras. Yet somehow, the two teams have never been champions in the same season. After Alabama’s Freddy Krueger win over Georgia in overtime, that’s a bad omen for the Patriots’ Super Bowl hopes next month.

In fact, going back to the start of the CFP, Bama and New England are alternating titles every other year:

2014: CFP - Ohio State; Super Bowl - Patriots
2015: CFP - Alabama; Super Bowl - Broncos
2016: CFP - Clemson; Super Bowl - Patriots
2017: CFP - Alabama; Super Bowl - ?

That’s practically proof (or as close as we’re going to get) of how cruel and merciful the football gods can be — each year, we get a reprieve from one, but the price we pay is the inevitability of the other.

Panic index: The Patriots are the top seed in the AFC. They will host the Titans this weekend, and because Tom Brady has never lost to a Mike Mularkey-coached team, probably the Jaguars or Steelers next weekend. They’re still the heavy favorites to be around while commissioner Roger Goodell fake-smiles through another Lombardi Trophy celebration. But if they don’t make it back-to-back titles, don’t blame their reported feud. Blame Nick Saban.

Marcus Mariota wasn’t especially prolific as a passer in his team’s shocking 22-21 upset over the Chiefs last week — but Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia isn’t especially worried about the third-year quarterback in the pocket.

Instead, it’s Mariota’s ability to impact other facets of his offense that will have the Patriots working overtime this week. While the Titans’ QB managed to devastate Kansas City with well-timed blocks and even a touchdown reception — from himself — his ability to keep plays alive and scramble for first downs has typically been a thorn in the side of an up-and-down New England D.

That weakness reared its head early during the team’s 2-2 start. Rookie Deshaun Watson used his legs to rush for 41 important yards and stayed alive long enough in the pocket to throw for 301 yards against a disheveled New England secondary. A week later, Cam Newton had 360 combined yards and four touchdowns thanks to his ability to avoid a below-average pass rush. Tyrod Taylor averaged 8 yards per rush in his two games against the Pats.

The Titans made important adjustments to switch to a more versatile running game in the second half of their comeback against the Chiefs, allowing Mariota more opportunities to keep the ball by dialing up more option-based plays. The strategy paid off in spades — even as Kansas City crept closer to the line of scrimmage, Mariota and running back Derrick Henry combined for 154 yards on 17 carries in the final two quarters. Expect more of that Saturday evening in Foxborough.

Panic index: The Patriots’ worst performances against mobile quarterbacks came during a 2-2 start in which this team was still working out various kinks. Patricia’s defense has improved significantly since then — and should be much tougher for Mariota to figure out.

In Week 5, the Jaguars handed the Steelers their biggest loss of the season, a 30-9 smackdown in Pittsburgh. Leonard Fournette rushed for 181 yards and two touchdowns, and the Jacksonville defense shut down the Steelers’ offense. Le’Veon Bell had just 47 yards rushing, while Ben Roethlisberger’s five-interception game had him wondering if he still had it.

Three months later, Roethlisberger said he wanted another shot at Jacksonville “to prove that five interceptions wasn’t me in that game.” Of course, one of the members of the Jaguars’ bold and outspoken defense warned him:

Coach Mike Tomlin tried to ease noise around Roethlisberger’s comments. “His attention will be properly focused on winning the game,” he told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler. “Not responding to some regular season October performance.”

Panic index: The chances that Roethlisberger throws five picks again, or that the Steelers lose by a few touchdowns, isn’t likely, but the Jacksonville D will be ready. The Jacksonville O on the other hand ...

The Jaguars got through the Wild Card Round, but that was thanks to the team’s stingy defense. It definitely wasn’t thanks to Bortles, even if the quarterback rushed for a career-high 88 yards against the Buffalo defense.

The problem was that he had a grand total of 87 yards passing. Dede Westbrook was the only wide receiver that even caught a pass for Jacksonville. The Jaguars scored just 10 points.

Although that worked against the Bills, the Jags can’t expect that to be a winning formula throughout the rest of their postseason. Head coach Doug Marrone admitted as much.

“We never really got into a rhythm and weren’t able to get anything on third down,” Marrone said via ESPN. “I’d be a fool to sit here and say I’m not concerned, but I’m going to take a step back and go ahead and look at it again. Obviously, if you want to continue to keep playing, you’re going to have to do a better job.”

The Steelers managed just nine points the first time these two teams met, but the Jaguars will need a better offensive performance — especially from Bortles — to get to the AFC Championship (or further).

Panic index: The Jaguars finished No. 5 in the NFL in points scored in 2017, and Bortles was great for stretches. Jacksonville’s chances at keeping a playoff run going likely rely on him figuring things out, but after Sunday, the Jaguars have plenty of reason to be worried.

The Saints have weathered injury after injury along their offensive line. They lost yet another offensive lineman in their win over the Panthers on Sunday when left guard Andrus Peat broke his fibula.

Luckily for the Saints, Terron Armstead is healthy. That hasn’t been the case for much of the season, but he should be good to go in the Divisional Round against the Vikings. Senio Kelemete has been forced into action consistently this year because of injuries, and the Saints can just kick him into the lineup at left guard.

The Saints were able to get it done against the Panthers even with Peat out, but they weren’t really able to establish the run and had to rely on a classic Drew Brees performance to get the win. And they face a Vikings team on the road that already beat them this season in Week 1.

Panic index: It’s terrible timing to lose a key member of the offensive line — especially if they want to get Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara going on the ground against the second-ranked run defense in the league this season. Otherwise, the Saints will have to hope Drew Brees, minus one of his starting linemen, can shoulder the load again.

The Atlanta defense just took care of the top-scoring offense in the league in 2017. The Falcons held the Rams to just one touchdown in a 26-13 win in the Wild Card Round. Next up are the Eagles, who finished the 2017 season ranked No. 3 with 28.6 points per game. But this Eagles team doesn’t look quite the same with Nick Foles under center instead of Carson Wentz.

Wentz was the probable MVP before he went down with a torn ACL against the Rams in Week 14. Although the Eagles went 2-1 with Foles as the starter in the regular season, they beat the Giants and the Raiders — two teams that surrendered a lot of points this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons finished the season ranked No. 8 with just 19.7 points allowed per game.

The last time the Eagles played, they were shut out in a hideous 6-0 loss to the Cowboys, a game in which third-stringer Nate Sudfeld took the majority of the snaps.

The Eagles still have one of the best backfields in the league with LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi. And the defense, which was ranked No. 4 in the league in points allowed this season, could make Saturday a long day for Matt Ryan and Co. But that won’t matter if Foles can’t get the Philly offense into the end zone.

Panic index: The Eagles are playing at home and are coming off a bye week, but there’s a reason they’re the first No. 1 seed to start the postseason as an underdog.