Luka Doncic has emerged as the Rookie of the Year favorite, and it’s no surprise. The not-so-secret is he’s hardly a rookie.
Luka Doncic is as amazing as everyone should have expected
Turns out the teams that passed on him in the draft may have been wrong. Who knew? Plus, Joel Embiid is making a living at the line.
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Prior to the NBA, the 19-year-old led the best team outside of the NBA, Real Madrid, to four championships, and he won a pair of MVPs in Liga ACB and EuroLeague, the most competitive leagues in Europe. He’s truly the future.
Doncic is leading the Dallas Mavericks in points per game, and is second in both assists and rebounds despite his age. He isn’t hoisting up shots or forcing too much: he’s been remarkably efficient for someone so inexperienced in the league.
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a first-year player produce to the levels the Mavs’ Slovenian star.
Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
Every week, Matt Ellentuck digs deep on advanced NBA statistics that have caught his eye:
Here are the numbers
- Among rookies who’ve qualified in the history of the league, Doncic is the only one to average 27 points, nine rebounds and six assists per 100 possessions. (The 100 possessions negates the disadvantage prior rookies had playing at a slower pace. TL;DR: He’s really efficient with his time on the floor.)
- Doncic ranks No. 107 among all rookies with a 54.7 eFG percentage (a stat that rates 3-point shots as worth more than twos) in 400 or more minutes. Among active players, he joins just one other primary ball-handler: Ty Lawson.
- Doncic ranks No. 33 of all rookies in 3-point shots attempted per 100 possessions in 400 or more minutes. The 6’8 (!) do-it-all takes 9; Trae Young is only a hair above him at 9.1. Frequently taking the next-most efficient shot after dunks layups is a good sign.
- Of all rookies to take 87 or more threes throughout the course of a season, Doncic ranks No. 82 in efficiency, sinking 37.9 percent of them. Not only is Doncic firing at a high rate, he’s been super successful.
- Among 6’8 rookies who’ve taken 118 or more two-point shots, Luka Doncic ranks No. 16 all-time in accuracy at 53.1 percent. Kawhi Leonard at 53.6 percent and Caris LeVert at 57.1 percent are the only active players who did better.
Doncic looks the part of a true centerpiece for a franchise looking to fill the void of Dirk Nowitzki and return the Mavs to a championship level. The franchise may have had to part ways with a 2019 first-round pick on draft night to get him, but he’s proving his worth.
Luka Doncic has all the tools to grow into the No. 1 option for a contender. It’s remarkable three teams (at least!) passed on him.
And now for another observation
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Joel Embiid is the free throw attempt king
No player in the league is getting to the free throw line near as frequently in similar play time as Embiid. His lead over Anthony Davis in total free-throw attempts per game seems narrow (10.8 to 10), but factoring in pace and play time, it’s much more significant.
Davis plays more and in a faster offense than Embiid. Per 100 possessions, Embiid gets to the free throw line 14.5 times, which is a full two more times than James Harden, who’s second-best.
To put this into historical perspective, Embiid free throw rate is the 30th highest the NBA has seen since 1946-47 among players who have played at least 40 minutes, and 10 of those rates belonged to Shaquille O’Neal and Dwight Howard, who were often fouled on purpose because of their poor free-throw shooting. (Embiid’s rookie season at 15.1/100 possessions ranks No. 9 All-Time, which is No. 2 when excluding Shaq and Dwight.)
Of all 30 who’ve shot 14.5 per 100 possessions or more, Embiid is shooting to the seventh-best efficiency, too. He’s made 81.5 percent of his looks.
He’s on his way to another impressive offensive season, all while annoying the heck out of his defenders.
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