Among usual NBA MVP suspects like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, and Giannis Anteotokounmpo, there’s another hiding in plain sight. In his third season, Joel Embiid is playing the best basketball of his career, solidifying himself as one of the NBA’s best defensive and offensive players. The latter was more of a question than the former in the past, but no longer.
Joel Embiid already belongs in the NBA MVP conversation
His numbers have been astonishing this season.
Through 25 games, Embiid is averaging 27 points and 13 rebounds a game. Those numbers haven’t been tallied in the first 25 games of any season since Moses Malone posted them to begin the 1981-82 year. None of the other big men that starred in this league since Malone — not Tim Duncan, Patrick Ewing, Charles Barkley, Hakeem Olajuwon, or anyone else — have scored and cleared the boards as prolifically as Embiid to begin a year, nor have they been close.
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Every week, Matt Ellentuck digs deep on advanced NBA statistics that have caught his eye:
Embiid’s also posted 30 points and 10 rebounds in 13 of the first 25 games of the season, which no player has done in 35 years.
Some of Embiid’s gaudy rebounding games are a byproduct of the NBA pace increase. Philadelphia averages 103 possessions per game this season, whereas Duncan’s Spurs never even cracked 91 until the 2009-10 season. However, Embiid is also playing far fewer minutes per game (34.2) than Malone did in 1981-82 (42).
Those numbers alone don’t explain Embiid’s rebounding dominance.
- Only Andre Drummond places himself in more chances to grab boards than Embiid, according to NBA.com’s tracking data. Embiid has 22.6 rebounding chances to Drummond’s 23.8. Put simply: teams can’t box him out.
- Embiid is grabbing 33.1 percent of all possible defensive rebounds when he’s on the court. That’s the 21st-best rate in NBA history, and a 3.4 point increase from a season ago.
- That number would be even higher if Embiid was hogging easy boards from his teammates. He defers 1.4 of his uncontested rebound chances to teammates, the 3rd-highest per game among all players.
Embiid is also shooting the ball at some of his highest percentages too, which is how he’s turned two more field goal attempts per game into five additional points. His true shooting percentage, which weights two-point shots, three-point shots, and free throws appropriately, is 58.1 percent. Embiid joins Marc Gasol, and Karl-Anthony Towns as the only 7-footers who take four or more threes a night that are on pace to score that efficiently. He’s also taking 1.2 fewer shots per game from mid range than he did last season, trading that in for one more shot from inside the paint.
But the biggest reason for Embiid’s added value on the offensive end is his ability to draw fouls. Embiid is taking 14.4 free throw attempts per 100 possessions, the most in the league, and what would be a tie for No. 21 all-time. He’s taking a full free-throw attempt per 100 possessions more than James Harden and 1.8 more than Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Most importantly, though, Embiid’s improved his biggest offensive flaw: turnovers, down from 3.7 to 3.1 per game. That might not seem like much, but given the league’s increase in pace, that drop goes a long way. Per 100 possessions, he’s turning the ball over nearly two times less often than last year (5.9 to 4.2).
At 17-8, Philly is flying with Embiid as its top player and Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons as his co-stars. Maybe the 76ers aren’t championship-ready just yet, but they’re establishing that they have one of the game’s greats.
At just 24 years old, it’s time we put Joel Embiid in the MVP conversation.
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