Mel Kiper keeps Josh Allen as Browns’ No. 1 pick despite Sam Darnold as overwhelming favorite

Mel Kiper’s third mock draft of 2018 is out, and he’s sticking with the Browns taking Josh Allen with the No. 1 overall pick, despite Sam Darnold being a heavy favorite.

Kiper wrote, “The Browns are zeroing in on a quarterback with the first overall pick, and Allen has crushed the pre-draft process. The addition of Tyrod Taylor allows Allen, who is the most raw of the top quarterback prospects in this class, to sit on the sidelines and adjust to the speed of the NFL. Cleveland doesn’t have to play Allen immediately, which really hurt DeShone Kizer in 2017.”

In SB Nation’s latest mock draft, Dan Kadar and Adam Stites divvied up odd and even numbered picks, where Stites has the Browns going with Darnold No. 1 overall. CBS Sports, three out of four NFL.com experts, and Todd McShay all also have the Browns going with Darnold in their latest mock drafts.

Kiper has Darnold going No. 2 to the Giants, Josh Rosen at No. 3 to the Jets, Saquon Barkley No. 4 to the Browns, and Baker Mayfield rounding out his top five to Denver.

Kadar and Stites agree with Kiper on his No. 4 and 5 picks, but have Rosen going No. 2 to the Giants, and Allen at No. 3 to the Jets.

The Colts traded the third pick to the New York Jets earlier this month, and Kiper sees this working out for them like everybody imagined.

“So the Colts trade down from No. 3 and still end up with the prospect I’ve given them in my first two mock drafts,” he wrote. “Chubb is the best pass-rusher in this class, and Indianapolis badly needs edge rushers for its expected move to a 4-3 defense. This fit is too perfect — and the Colts added three second-round picks (two in 2018, one in 2019) in their trade with the Jets.”

It’s seems everybody has mocked Chubb to the Colts, including Kadar. In his latest mock with Stites, they also have Chubb going No. 6 overall. The pick makes sense for the Colts, and they probably wouldn’t have made the trade if they thought they wouldn’t be able to get him.

Ridley is Kiper’s first receiver off the board. In his last mock draft, he had Ridley going No. 15 to the Cardinals. In Kadar and Stites’ mock, that’s exactly where Ridley goes.

Kiper wrote, “Ridley is still my top-ranked wideout, but he’s dropping a little bit. He didn’t test well athletically at the combine, and he didn’t show off the explosion I expected (a vertical jump of 31 inches was concerning). Still, the tape shows a player who consistently beats cornerbacks and is great after the catch. Ridley, Julio Jones, and Mohamed Sanu would form one of the most talented receiving corps in the league.”

Kadar has the Falcons going with Michigan defensive tackle Maurice Hurst here. He cites the Falcons’ need for defensive line help, which, “was evident before Adrian Clayborn and Dontari Poe left in free agency” as he points out.

He adds that if the Falcons are comfortable with Hurst’s heart situation, it’s an easy pick to make.

There are offensive players that go in Kiper’s mock outside of the top five picks, but they’re mostly on the offensive line. After that, teams are looking to build up their defensive lines, linebackers, and secondaries.

One of the more notable picks is the Buccaneers going with Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward at No. 7 (Stites had the Buccaneers going with Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick). Kiper wrote, Quenton Nelson might have been in play here, but the Bucs signed center Ryan Jensen in free agency and can move Ali Marpet back to guard. I think this pick has to be a defensive back — the Bucs had the league’s worst passing defense in 2017. Tampa Bay could choose from the best corner or safety on its board, and Ward is the top corner in this class.”

Kiper also has the Chargers bolstering their defensive line with Alabama’s Da’Ron Payne. Putting him next to Joey Bosa wouldn’t be a bad idea at all.

He wrote, “This is another pick that has stayed the same across my first two mock drafts, and the Chargers haven’t done anything in free agency to address their porous run defense (as I noted last month, their 4.9 yards per rushing attempt allowed ranked last in the league). Payne had only three career sacks at Alabama, but he’s stellar against the run and is quick off the ball.”

Stites had the Chargers going with Washington’s Vita Vea. Kiper had Vea going No. 13 to Washington.

Kiper also sees the Seahawks creating a new Legion of Boom with Iowa cornerback Josh Jackson. He wrote, “Seattle is set at one corner with Shaquill Griffin, a steal in the third round of last year’s draft. But after releasing Richard Sherman, the other corner spot is far from settled. The 6-foot Jackson fits the Seahawks’ mold of bigger corners, and he has great ball skills (eight interceptions in 2017). Seattle has lost a lot of talent this offseason and could go after another offensive lineman or wide receiver.”

Kadar had the Seahawks going with Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchey, which Kiper mentioned could be another direction they could go in.

Mock drafts are starting to show more similarities as we get closer and closer to the draft. But assuming more trades and signings come leading up to it, the mocks will change too. Though there’s clearly one constant for Kiper, and it’s Allen at No. 1.