Todd McShay thinks there are only 2 QBs worthy of a top 10 pick

Todd McShay released the first crack at his annual top 100 mock draft Tuesday. It’s an exercise where he plays general manager for all 32 NFL teams and makes the selections he’d deem worthy of an “A” grade when all is said and done. And if his picks are any indication, he’s not as high on this year’s crop of quarterbacks as some prognosticators.

The veteran ESPN scribe only puts a pair of quarterbacks in the top 10 of his draft, leaving potential top five picks Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield to languish until the middle of the first round. That’s great news for the Dolphins, who select Allen in McShay’s simulation, and the Bills, who would get 2017 Heisman Trophy winner Mayfield. It may be unrealistic; the 100-pick mock purposefully excludes any projected trades that could happen in the coming weeks leading up to May’s draft.

That means QB-needy teams like the Bills and Broncos would be stuck in their current positions, hoping their top-choice passer falls to them. For Buffalo, a trade-free environment works in its favor. Denver, however, would opt for Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward with the No. 5 pick after seeing Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen taken off the board.

Lamar Jackson would make it five quarterbacks taken in the first round — though in McShay’s lineup, he’d spend 2018 as Blake Bortles’ presumptive backup in Jacksonville.

It’s a much different take than Dan Kadar’s latest at SB Nation, where he slots four QBs into the top four picks, two of whom are acquired by trades that haven’t happened yet. In Kadar’s sim, the Bills have to pay dearly for their franchise quarterback while the Dolphins settle for a run-swallowing defensive tackle at No. 11.

The fate of the NCAA’s top quarterbacks isn’t the only notable development from McShay’s best-case scenario, no-trades mock draft. Here are the other big picks that stuck out:

Three of San Francisco’s four projected picks come on the defensive side of the ball, but a bit of a reach on offense kicks off John Lynch’s second draft as general manager. McShay’s list saddles the 49ers with Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley early in the first round. While Ridley is regarded as the draft’s top wideout, he’s more commonly seen as a mid-round pick. The Niners could trade back and target the All-SEC standout, but with needy teams like the Ravens, Cardinals, and Washington lurking, the No. 9 pick may be their only shot to get him.

Deals for Duane Brown and Sheldon Richardson left Seattle with just one selection in the draft’s first 119 picks, putting an exceptional amount of pressure on a team beginning a prospective rebuild. McShay gave the Seahawks Texas-San Antonio pass rusher Marcus Davenport with the 18th selection, a player with the ceiling of a top-five player at his position but the floor of a practice squad washout. Davenport was destructive for the Roadrunners as he developed into the Conference-USA Defensive Player of the Year, but he’ll have to prove he can translate that talent from one of the FBS’s lowest levels and into the NFL.

The veteran quarterback was one of the league’s least efficient passers in 2017, but some of his struggles could be attributed to a receiving corps where no wideout caught more than 52 passes. The Ravens have been proactive to address that need this offseason after signing John Brown and Michael Crabtree as free agents. McShay sees that trend continuing at the draft. He projects FCS tight end Dallas Goedert to Baltimore in a surprising pick at No. 16, then follows that up with SMU wide receiver Courtland Sutton in the second round.

The “A” grade draft for the NFL’s 31 other teams leaves some impressive talent for New England in positions of significant need. Notre Dame mauler Mike McGlinchey comes in at No. 23 to take Nate Solder’s place as Tom Brady’s blindside protector. Iowa cornerback Josh Jackson, uber-productive with an FBS-high eight interceptions last season, would be Malcolm Butler’s replacement across from Stephon Gilmore.

Two more defensive replacements follow, then the anchor drops. Richmond quarterback Kyle Lauletta falls to New England with the No. 95 overall pick. Could Bill Belichick groom another FCS standout in Jimmy Garoppolo’s wake?