UFC 307 Paths to Victory: How does Khalil Rountree Jr. pull off a massive upset over Alex Pereira?

On Saturday night at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, UFC 307 takes place with light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira putting his title on the line against fellow knockout artist Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event.

Pereira is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport and has already jumped in on two previous occasions this year to help the UFC at UFC 300 and at UFC 303 (where he delivered spectacular knockouts). As such, Rountree is a significant underdog to the champion. But that doesn’t mean “The War Horse” can’t shock the world on Saturday so let’s take a look at how Rountree might author the upset, and at how Pereira keeps his belt.

This is the third one of these I’ve written for Pereira this year, and honestly, it’s getting a bit difficult to find new ways to say that “Poatan” is awesome. The man is speed-running a Hall of Fame career and is already climbing the list of all-time fighters in just a few short years in the sport. He in the midst of a truly unprecedented career and, at least on paper, that should continue on Saturday.

Perhaps more than any other person in MMA currently, Pereira possesses a true nuclear option. He is very possibly the hardest pound-for-pound puncher in the sport and what’s really incredible about it is that he doesn’t even swing hard. He’s best known for his lethal left hook, but every shot Pereira throws thuds like a cinderblock and lacks the huge wind-up you see from some other heavy hitters. This is the engine that drives his entire game. The threat of cataclysmic repercussions at a moment’s notice forces every Pereira opponent to prepare accordingly and thus dictates much of how his fights play out.

Along those lines, while Pereira’s knockouts power his game, it’s his low kicks that drive the car. Pereira is one of the very best calf-kickers in MMA because he shows almost no setup on them and they nonetheless seriously impede his opponents. They are the bedrock of his game, allowing him to score seemingly innocuous blows, and then oops, suddenly Pereira’s landed 15 in three minutes and now your leg doesn’t work anymore.

And for Pereira to defend his title on Saturday, these are the only real tools he needs. The structure of Pereira’s game is a Scylla and Charybdis setup, where you can stay on the outside and get kicked to death or you can wade into the danger zone and face his nuclear power. Either avenue results in death, and for Rountree, this is especially true as he isn’t an adept defender of low kicks and he’s not going to suddenly turn into a D-1 wrestler. Also, he has a bad habit of dropping his right hand when he throws his own left.

For Pereira, the path forward is clear: be yourself and limit protracted engagements. Rountree is not as good of a kickboxer, but he does have speed and power and throws in combination, which is a risk. Pereira should chop the leg from the outside and work shots to the body as well, while he waits for Rountree to drop his guard, then boom goes the dynamite.

A UFC fighter since 2016 where he entered the promotion off of The Ultimate Fighter, Rountree has established himself as one of light heavyweight’s premier knockout artists during his eight-year tenure. But perhaps more impressive than his knockouts is the fact that Rountree has proven particularly capable at dispatching former Glory Kickboxers, going 3-0 over them in the UFC. Now though “The Glory Killer” faces the Glory Kickboxing end boss in former two-division champion Pereira.

Rountree’s success against former kickboxers comes down to one simple thing: he’s a solid striker in his own right and he possess the speed and power to catch people off guard. Rountree is fast and powerful and throws fight-ending shots in rapid combination, which with his willingness to engage make him a threat during any exchange. That being said, it also opens him up to getting cracked by counters, which is death against Pereira.

Rountree faces two major issues in this matchup. The first is navigating Pereira’s kicks. Rountree isn’t great at checking low kicks and while one hopes he’s worked on that skill for this fight, a more likely response is drilled counters, with Rountree’s left hand being keyed to trigger a responding shot every time Pereira kicks him. If he can’t disincentivize calf kicks with checks, counters is the only other real option available to stopping Pereira from dictating the action.

The second issue is generating his own consistent offense. We saw against Dustin Jacoby that Rountree had a hard time managing the distance against a good striker with good footwork, and thus settled on lunging in recklessly at times. I cannot stress enough how bad of an idea that is against Pereira, who will immediately club him for it.

Instead, Rountree should insist on winning the pressure battle. Pereira can fight off his back foot but Rountree is in much better shape if he is always the one coming forward. He also should feint a lot. Feints opened up a number of opportunities for Israel Adesanya, and from Rountree they could be the difference in landing a fight-ender or not. Most importantly though, Rountree needs to use these tools to crowd Pereira and get inside, where he can swing for the fences. Could “Poatan” catch him if they start trading hooks in a phone booth? Yes. But that is also by far the place that Rountree is most likely to land his own fight-ender on Pereira.

Get inside and throw down, then see where the chips fall.

Does the grueling schedule finally catch up with Pereira?

Pereira is 37 years old. That’s not exactly a spring chicken, even up at light heavyweight. The man has been fighting professionally for 12 years and has over 50 professional fights. That’s A LOT of mileage. On top of that, Pereira has been absurdly active since joining the UFC. This is his 10th fight in three years. That’s a Donald Cerrone-level of activity, which is good for star-making but bad for remaining undefeated.

In just about any sport, frequent competition leads to occasional defeat. You can’t always have your best day, especially if you’re fighting every couple of months. And that gets exacerbated in combat sports because the cost of training and the injuries you accumulate there are so high. Thus far, Pereira has mostly proven himself capable of winning through any such hindrances, but if you roll the dice enough, eventually they come up snake eyes.

At the risk of sounding disrespectful to Rountree, this should be a showcase for Pereira. Rountree is a fun fighter, but he’s like that quote from 300, “more brawler than warrior, he makes a wonderful mess of things.” If Rountree can make this more of a brawl than a kickboxing fight, his chances to win go up, but even if he does, that’s still no guarantee. Pereira is too savvy and packs too much power in his own right for Rountree 8 out of 10 times.

Alex Pereira knocks out Khalil Rountree Jr. at 1:03 of Round 2.