A year ago Keselowski was NASCAR's central force whether winning races on the track or garnering attention off it by engaging in high-profile skirmishes with Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon. In part because he hasn't maintained a steady presence up front and owns just a single victory, Keselowski has experienced a more subdued 2014 -- one where he's not viewed as a championship favorite.
The late-summer resurgence that saw Keselowski roll off nine consecutive top-10 finishes carries over into the playoffs, resulting in the 2012 champion again becoming a major player. Although a second title doesn't materialize, he makes things interesting until the very last laps at Homestead.
A mundane season ends when Keselowski, needing a win to advance, can't come through resulting in a second round elimination.
Keselowski needs to show he can close out when in contention, as he routinely has seen strategy and luck work against him. If his fortune turns, there's no reason he can't progress all the way to the final four. More realistically, he makes it Round 3 before a determined effort falls just short.