Michigan vs. Loyola-Chicago in the Final Four: How they got here plus a prediction

A Michigan vs. Loyola-Chicago matchup in the Final Four is living proof of how you can never predict a college basketball season before it actually happens.

Michigan was just hoping for an at-large bid at the start of the season. Loyola-Chicago thought it could be competitive in the Missouri Valley, but knew it would have to win the conference tournament to make the Big Dance.

Instead, these are the two hottest teams in college basketball, heading to San Antonio on a combined 27-game winning streak. These two teams have lost one game between them since the calendar flipped to February. Incredible.

This is how a Michigan-Loyola Final Four game happened.

Michigan was picked to finish in a tie for fifth in the Big Ten preseason poll, below Northwestern and Minnesota and tied with Maryland. The Wolverines were a Sweet 16 team last year, but had to replace a long-time starters at point guard (Derrick Walton Jr.) and smal forward (Zak Irvin) and also a first round NBA draft pick (D.J. Wilson).

Michigan knew it had a potential star in Moritz Wagner. It knew Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahman could shoot and it knew Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews was a potential two-way stud on the wing. Everything else was a major question mark.

When Michigan lost to Northwestern on Feb. 6, it looked safely in the tournament at 19-7 overall and 8-5 in conference. No one would have called them a Final Four contender at that time. The Wolverines haven’t lost since.

Somewhere along the way, this became the best defensive team of John Beilein’s career. It’s the defense that fueled Michigan to a Big Ten tournament title at Madison Square Garden and started the hype that this could be a real contender. But would a week off after the conference tournament leave the Wolverines rusty heading into the Big Dance?

Not exactly. Michigan took care of business against Montana. It’s second win was the Jordan Poole miracle buzzer-beater that will persist as one of the program’s best-ever moments. Michigan’s offense finally caught fire in the Sweet 16, dropping 99 points in a blowout win over Texas A&M that saw the team shoot 62 percent from the field and 58 percent from three-point range (on 14 makes). The Elite Eight game against Florida State was the polar opposite, a 58-54 slugfest that Michigan fought to hang on to in the final minute.

Moe Wagner is Beilein’s greatest weapon. The 6’10 junior has shot 40 percent from three-point range and can also put the ball on the floor. You only need to see Wagner hit an unsuspecting defender with a behind-the-back dribble once to know the type to know he’s a dynamic talent. Wagner actually hasn’t led Michigan in scoring outright in this tournament yet. It feels like he could be due for a big game against a smaller Loyola front line.

Zavier Simpson. Michigan’s starting point guard isn’t a threat to beat you from the three-point line. He’s only a 51 percent free throw shooter. He’s generously listed at 6-feet tall. It’s not like he’s an elite facilitator, either. But Simpson has the ability to make-or-break Michigan with his defensive pressure, hounding opposing ball handlers and having a knack for forcing turnovers without taking too many risks.

Simpson has a big-time matchup against Missouri Valley Player of the Year Clayton Custer on Saturday. If he wins, it’s a matchup with either Jalen Brunson or Devonte Graham. Michigan needs Simpson to play elite defense if it’s going to win two more games.

Loyola was picked to finish third in the MVC, but the truth is the league was wide-open this season in its first year without Wichita State, who departed for the American Athletic Association. Loyola was only 18-14 last season and lost its leading scorer in Milton Doyle. Just making the tournament for the first time since 1985 would have made this a successful season. Little did anyone know Loyola would be so much better than that.

Loyola put the rest of the country on notice when it went into Gainesville and beat No. 5 Florida on Dec. 6. It set the tone for a dominant run through the MVC, where the Ramblers went 15-3 and won the league outright by four games. Loyola locked in the auto-bid with a 65-49 win over Illinois State in the conference tournament title game, setting the stage for one of the great Cinderella runs in March Madness history.

All Loyola had to do to get here was hit three game-winners in its first three games. Donte Ingram was first hero, hitting a deep three in the final seconds to beat Miami. Clayton Custer got a miracle bounce off the rim two days later to stun No. 3 Tennessee. It was Marques Townes with a late three-pointer to seal the Sweet 16 win vs. Nevada.

The Elite Eight game with Kansas State required no such drama. The Ramblers delivered a 78-62 knockout punch to the Wildcats to push the program into the Final Four for the first time since 1963, when it won it all.

Custer was originally recruited to Iowa State by Fred Hoiberg as a former top-100 prospect. He won MVC Player of the Year by being one of the most efficient scorers in the country with a 65 percent true shooting percentage. Three of Loyola’s five losses came when Custer was injured. He needs to be the steady hand that guides the offense against Michigan.

Cameron Krutwig. The only player in Loyola’s rotation over 6’6, Krutwig is a true freshman center from suburban Jacobs High School who scores efficiently around the basket and is an excellent passer. Krutwig is limited athletically and typically tends to play only about half the game as Loyola goes small to switch everything defensively and get more shooting on the floor.

Michigan presents a unique problem for Loyola, though, because of the presence of Moe Wagner. Loyola hasn’t faced a center like him yet during this tournament run. That makes Krutwig’s ability to stay on the floor vs. Michigan’s spread offense more essential than ever. As long as Loyola’s defense can help up with him in the game, Krutwig could bully Wagner in the post offensively.

Michigan is another favorable matchup for Loyola. The Ramblers need a slow game that ends in the 50s or 60s, and Michigan plays even slower than Loyola. An upset is on the table for Loyola, but Michigan’s size and athleticism advantages tip the scales in the Wolverines’ favor. Expect this one to be decided in the final two minutes either way.