At this time last year, the Kansas Jayhawks, Duke Blue Devils, Gonzaga Bulldogs and Kentucky Wildcats found themselves atop my annual exercise in futility — the preseason bracket.
College basketball’s preseason NCAA tournament bracket would look like this
But don’t put too much money on November’s No. 1 seeds making it all the way to Atlanta.
And how many of those teams made it to Minneapolis for the Final Four? (checks notes) None. Nil. Zilch. Zero.
While Duke and Gonzaga ended up atop the bracket on Selection Sunday, both also fell one game short of making it to the Land of 10,000 Lakes, with Kentucky meeting the same fate as a No. 2 seed. Then there were the Jayhawks, who didn’t even make it out of the Second Round — after falling to a No. 4 seed.
As for the teams that ended up traveling to the Twin Cities, both the Michigan State Spartans, a preseason No. 3 seed, and eventual national champion Virginia Cavaliers, a No. 2 seed in November, were decent bets to make it to US Bank Stadium. In fact, both Michigan State and Virginia’s Selection Sunday seeds were one line higher than what I projected a few months earlier. On the other hand, the Auburn Tigers and Texas Tech Red Raiders were real surprises. Sure, Bruce Pearl’s squad were a preseason three seed, just like Michigan State, but the Tigers entered March Madness as a No. 5 seed — in four seed Kansas’ pod. Then there were Chris Beard’s Red Raiders, who over-performed their November projection, earning a No. 3 seed — four lines higher than their preseason seven.
Even though 40 of 2019’s preseason field of 68 ended up in the real bracket five months later, only eight of those teams earned a seed that matched their preseason projection. Another nine squads ended up seeded within a line of their November placement. Going back year after year, the numbers tell a similar story about how the season will unfold. Now, perhaps 2020 will finally be the year the four teams at the top of this bracket will buck the odds and make their way to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But it’s far more likely that at least one of these teams will stumble, with one of the many capable teams ranking behind them rising up as a replacement. Prepare yourself for five months worth of surprises, twists and turns. Enjoy the journey.
Here’s the full preseason bracket for your amusement. A few notes will follow.
1. Midwest (Indianapolis, Indiana)
Cleveland, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)
1. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 16. Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC)/NC Central (MEAC)
8. Wichita State vs. 9. Mississippi State
St. Louis, Missouri (Thu./Sat.)
5. Baylor vs. 12. Vermont (Am. East)
4. Seton Hall vs. 13. East Tennessee State (SoCon)
Sacramento, California (Fri./Sun.)
6. Saint Mary’s vs. 11. Georgetown/Missouri
3. Oregon (Pac-12) vs. 14. UC Irvine (Big West)
Greensboro, North Carolina (Fri./Sun.)
7. VCU (A 10) vs. 10. Houston
2. Duke vs. 15. Colgate (Patriot)
4. West (Los Angeles, California)
Cleveland (Fri./Sun.)
1. Kentucky vs. 16. Iona (MAAC)
8. Oklahoma vs. 9. Washington
Omaha, Nebraska (Fri./Sun.)
5. Purdue vs. 12. Western Kentucky (C-USA)
4. Texas Tech vs. 13. Toledo (MAC)
Spokane, Washington (Thu./Sat.)
7. Tennessee vs. 10. NC State
2. Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15. South Dakota (Summit)
2. South (Houston, Texas)
Omaha (Fri./Sun.)
1. Kansas (Big 12) vs. 16. Montana (Big Sky)
8. Utah State (MW) vs. 9. Michigan
Sacramento (Fri./Sun.)
5. LSU vs. 12. Belmont (OVC)
4. Memphis (American) vs. 13. New Mexico State (WAC)
Albany, New York (Thu./Sat.)
6. Marquette vs. 11. Oklahoma State
3. North Carolina vs. 14. Wright State (Horizon)
Greensboro (Fri./Sun.)
7. Florida State vs. 10. Colorado
2. Maryland vs. 15. South Alabama (Sun Belt)
3. East (New York, New York)
Tampa (Thu./Sat.)
1. Florida (SEC) vs. 16. Sam Houston State (Southland)/Texas Southern (SWAC)
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. Texas
Spokane (Thu./Sat.)
5. Arizona vs. 12. Harvard (Ivy)
4. Ohio State vs. 13. Loyola Chicago (MVC)
Albany (Thu./Sat.)
6. Cincinnati vs. 11. Davidson
3. Villanova (Big East) vs. 14. Liberty (ASUN)
St. Louis (Thu./Sat.)
7. Xavier vs. 10. Indiana
2. Louisville (ACC) vs. 15. Radford (Big South)
Last Four Byes: Indiana, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Davidson
Last Four IN: Butler, Syracuse, Georgetown, Missouri
First Four OUT: Iowa, Notre Dame, Dayton, Creighton
Next Four OUT: Penn State, Providence, Illinois, Arkansas
Bids by Conference: 7 ACC, 7 Big Ten, 7 SEC, 6 Big 12, 6 Big East, 4 American, 4 Pac-12, 2 Atlantic 10, 2 West Coast, 23 one-bid conferences
Bracket Notes
- These preseason conference bid totals aren’t too different from 2019’s final numbers. The Big Ten is down one from the eight bids earned last March, while the numbers for the ACC, SEC and Big 12 are stable. The Big East gained two bids, at the expense of the two-bid Mountain West and Ohio Valley, while the Pac-12 picked up the Big Ten’s extra bid.
- Of the 68 teams in this projection, 44 return from last March. Of the 24 newcomers, 12 are at-large selections and 12 are new single-bid conference champions.
- As usual, I leaned pretty heavily on my non-conference scheduling rankings when putting together these preseason pairings, particularly at the top of the bracket and near the cut line.
- The list of teams considered for the preseason bracket was as deep as you would expect, going 42 spots past the “Next Four Out” group. While there are some notable mid-majors in this group, like the Buffalo Bulls, BYU Cougars, Nevada Wolf Pack, Penn Quakers and Rhode Island Rams to name just five, this group is naturally loaded with power conference teams. Of the 87 teams in the Power Five conferences, Big East and American, only the California Golden Bears, East Carolina Pirates, Tulane Green Wave, Vanderbilt Commodores and Washington State Cougars failed to make the “under consideration” group.
- Gonzaga is able to play in Spokane because the Idaho Vandals is the host institution (and the Bulldogs aren’t scheduled to play at the Veterans Memorial Arena anyway).
- Should they earn a bid, the South Florida Bulls (Tampa) and Creighton Bluejays (Omaha) are the most likely First and Second Round host schools that would need to play at another site.
- Thinking ahead to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend, the St. John’s Red Storm (East) and Houston Cougars (South) cannot be placed in the regionals they are hosting. But these teams aren’t alone. The Houston regional has three co-hosts, so the Rice Owls and Texas Southern Tigers would need to be placed in different quadrants of the bracket should they earn their respective conferences’ auto bids. As a result, Texas Southern finds itself in a 16-seed First Four game destined for the East Region in this projection. The same rule would apply to the Pepperdine Waves in the West Regional should they earn a bid.
- The most interesting pod of the 16 projected here is the West Region one in Tampa. Not only could there be a rematch of last April’s controversial Auburn-Virginia national semifinal in the Second Round, but the Cavaliers could face the Syracuse Orange for a third time in another possible Round of 32 matchup. Normally, these teams would be kept apart until the regional semifinals. But with two Big East teams joining the Orange in the First Four and a regular-season meeting between Butler and Missouri further complicating matters, that guideline would be relaxed according to the Selection Committee’s Procedures and Principles.
- As for your projected top-two regional finals, Saturday’s doubleheader would likely start with Kentucky and Gonzaga in Los Angeles, followed by Michigan State and Duke in Indianapolis. On Sunday, Florida would meet Louisville at Madison Square Garden, with Kansas and Maryland closing the weekend out in Houston.
Regular updates will begin in January. Look for a Feast Week winners and losers post in early December to tide you over.
See More:
