College Football

Simulated BCS standings, Week 2: Clemson surges to No. 3, computers hate Louisville

There are no official BCS rankings for the 2013 college football season yet, but we know how the standings would look if they were released.

by Samuel Chi

Sep 5, 2013, 2:00 PM UTC

Streeter Lecka

Teddy Bridgewater certainly put on a show and launched his Heisman campaign in style against Ohio. But for his team, it was but the first in a series of low-impact, low-return matchups.

Louisville is stuck at No. 14 in the simulated BCS standings after the first week, and don’t look for the Cardinals to make much of a move either in the polls or the computers anytime soon. They face FCS Eastern Kentucky next, and then Kentucky and Florida International before opening American Athletic Conference play against Temple.

The full simulated standings:

More: So what if Louisville's schedule is soft?

Rank	Pvs	Team	Rk	Coach	%	Rk	AP	%	Md*	JS	KM	RB	Cp Avg	BCS	Conf
1	1	Alabama	1	1545	0.9968	1	1497	0.9980	1	1	1	1	1.000	0.9983	SEC
2	2	Oregon	3	1420	0.9161	2	1355	0.9033	2	9	2	4	0.870	0.8965	P12
3	8	Clemson	5	1275	0.8226	4	1304	0.8693	7	10	7	2	0.780	0.8240	ACC
4	5	Stanford	4	1292	0.8335	5	1277	0.8513	4	4	12	7	0.770	0.8183	P12
5	7	South Carolina	6	1220	0.7871	6	1181	0.7873	6	7	6	6	0.790	0.7881	SEC
6	3	Ohio State	2	1444	0.9316	3	1330	0.8867	12	15	21	5	0.510	0.7761	B10
7	6	Texas A&M	7	1181	0.7619	7	1085	0.7233	3	6	3	8	0.840	0.7751	SEC
8	11	LSU	11	926	0.5974	9	971	0.6473	5	3	4	11	0.810	0.6849	SEC
9	12	Florida State	10	946	0.6103	10	953	0.6353	9	14	5	14	0.620	0.6219	ACC
10	9	Florida	9	974	0.6284	12	875	0.5833	11	13	8	9	0.630	0.6139	SEC
11	4	Georgia	12	875	0.5645	11	894	0.5960	14	5	10	13	0.620	0.5935	SEC
12	10	Notre Dame	13	840	0.5419	14	707	0.4713	8	11	11	3	0.710	0.5744	Ind
13	13	Oklahoma State	14	798	0.5148	13	780	0.5200	10	2	9	18	0.650	0.5616	B12
14	14	Louisville	8	1051	0.6781	8	1073	0.7153	18			12	0.220	0.5378	AA
15	15	Oklahoma	15	666	0.4297	16	612	0.4080	13	8	13	10	0.600	0.4792	B12
16	16	Texas	16	660	0.4258	15	674	0.4493	16	19	20	19	0.300	0.3917	B12
17	17	Michigan	17	623	0.4019	17	583	0.3887	15	22	16		0.250	0.3469	B10
18	26	Northwestern	20	348	0.2245	19	320	0.2133	20		17	20	0.210	0.2159	B10
19	24	UCLA	18	368	0.2374	18	387	0.2580	21	21			0.100	0.1985	P12
20	22	Wisconsin	21	301	0.1942	21	287	0.1913	19	24	23		0.120	0.1685	B10
21	25	Baylor	26	125	0.0806	23	150	0.1000	17		15	21	0.250	0.1435	B12
22	19	Nebraska	19	357	0.2303	22	219	0.1460	25				0.010	0.1288	B10
23	27	USC	22	176	0.1135	25	135	0.0900	22	23	19		0.140	0.1145	P12
24	42	Washington	23	145	0.0935	20	315	0.2100		25	24		0.030	0.1112	P12
25	20	TCU	24	140	0.0903	24	148	0.0987		12			0.140	0.1097	B12
26	36	Ole Miss	28	54	0.0348	27	50	0.0333		18	14		0.200	0.0894	SEC
27	29	Miami (Fla.)	24	140	0.0903	26	127	0.0847					0.000	0.0583	ACC
28	39	Penn State ^			0.0000	37	4	0.0027	24		22	16	0.160	0.0542	B10
29	32	Arizona State	31	28	0.0181	28	48	0.0320		16	25		0.110	0.0534	P12
30	28	Northern Illinois	30	31	0.0200	30	27	0.0180				15	0.110	0.0493	MAC
31	41	Cincinnati	32	19	0.0123	30	27	0.0180	23			22	0.070	0.0334	AA
32	34	San Jose State	33	12	0.0077			0.0000				17	0.090	0.0326	MWC
33	18	Boise State	37	5	0.0032	38	3	0.0020		17			0.090	0.0317	MWC
34	21	Kansas State	40	3	0.0019			0.0000			18	25	0.090	0.0306	B12
35	33	Virginia Tech	37	5	0.0032	33	12	0.0080		20			0.060	0.0237	ACC
36	30	Michigan State	27	67	0.0432	29	42	0.0280					0.000	0.0237	B10
37	37	Fresno State	29	46	0.0297	32	22	0.0147					0.000	0.0148	MWC
38	51	Arkansas State	40	3	0.0019			0.0000				23	0.030	0.0106	Sun
39	NR	Texas Tech	40	3	0.0019			0.0000				24	0.020	0.0073	B12
40	46	Georgia Tech	35	10	0.0065	35	8	0.0053					0.000	0.0039	ACC
41	44	Arizona	36	7	0.0045	36	6	0.0040					0.000	0.0028	P12
42	51	Arkansas	33	12	0.0077	40	1	0.0007					0.000	0.0028	SEC
43	NR	Bowling Green	43	1	0.0006	34	9	0.0060					0.000	0.0022	MAC
44	50	Central Florida	39	4	0.0026			0.0000					0.000	0.0009	AA
45	NR	Virginia			0.0000	39	2	0.0013					0.000	0.0004	ACC
46	47	East Carolina	43	1	0.0006			0.0000					0.000	0.0002	CUSA
46	NR	Missouri	43	1	0.0006			0.0000					0.000	0.0002	SEC
46	40	North Carolina	43	1	0.0006			0.0000					0.000	0.0002	ACC
46	31	Utah State	43	1	0.0006			0.0000					0.000	0.0002	MWC

Keys: Pvs = Previous Week; Coach = USA Today Coaches Poll; AP = Associated Press Poll; Md = Median ranking of 24 computer ratings; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM* = Kenneth Massey MOV; RB = Richard Billingsley; Cp Avg = Computer Average; Yellow indicates top team in BCS conference; Orange indicates top team in non-BCS conference.

Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings with the following variations: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Interactive Poll, which is not published until after the first weekend of October; 2) Three of the six BCS computer ratings are available - Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey and Richard Billingsley; 3) The other three computer ratings - Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix and Peter Wolfe - will not be available until mid-September or October, so they’re replaced by the median ranking of 24 computer ratings.

^ Penn State is ineligible for inclusion in Official BCS Standings

Only one of Louisville’s opponents is ranked above No. 55 in the Massey Ratings, which has Louisville at No. 40 currently. In the other two BCS computer rankings currently available, the Cardinals are No. 29 (in Jeff Sagarin) and No. 12 (in Richard Billingsley). But the high ranking in Billingsley is nearly meaningless because of its high frequency of being discarded by the BCS formula (each team’s most extreme rankings are tossed).

Another national title contender facing considerable headwind early in the season is Ohio State, which despite being ranked No. 2 in the Coaches Poll and No. 3 in the AP Poll finds itself only No. 6 in the simulated BCS standings. The Buckeyes also have an impact-free nonconference schedule that features FCS Florida A&M and San Diego State, which was trounced in its opener by FCS Eastern Illinois.

But at least Ohio State should get decent amount of help once the Big Ten schedule begins, even though it will miss Nebraska and Michigan State, two of the better teams in the conference. The Buckeyes will be able to hang on to their lofty poll rankings as long as they keep winning and just by virtue of being in the Big Ten, their computer ratings will not continue to sink.

The same cannot be said for Louisville, which faces the prospect of going 12-0 and not coming close to playing for the BCS title. Then again, we’re getting way ahead of ourselves.

Louisville and Ohio State notwithstanding, we do have a few high-impact BCS games in Week 2, and here they are (rankings in simulated BCS standings):

No. 5 South Carolina at No. 11 Georgia (4:30 p.m. ESPN): Last week’s opener at Clemson was not a do-or-die game for Georgia, but this week’s SEC opener certainly is. A Bulldogs loss will surely eliminate them from the BCS title chase, if not a shot at the SEC championship game. Steve Spurrier has owned his old rival at his new school once again, having won the last three to improve to 15-5 lifetime against Georgia.

No. 12 Notre Dame at No. 17 Michigan (8 p.m. ET, ESPN): In the final Big House matchup in the foreseeable future between those ~~storied~~ rivals, possibly more than just semantics are on the line. This is one of the two toughest road tests for Notre Dame this season (the other being the season finale at Stanford), and Michigan Stadium has simply been the Big House of Horrors for the Irish, who have lost six of the last seven there, the last two in excruciating fashion.

No. 10 Florida at Miami (Noon, ESPN): This rivalry has definitely gone non-storied, this being only the sixth time these schools have met since 1987 and the last maybe in a long, long time. This game certainly means more to the Hurricanes, who are trying to rebuild the program and reestablish their national profile. The Gators simply have bigger fishes to fry in the SEC and a loss here wouldn’t even cripple their national title hopes.

San Jose State at No. 4 Stanford (11 p.m., Pac-12 Network): Stanford is the only ranked team that did not play last week and its season-opener is far from a cakewalk. Mike MacIntyre rebuilt the Spartans program and led them to an 11-2 record in 2012 before moving on to Colorado. The Cardinal barely held off San Jose State, 20-17, in last year’s opener, and can ill-afford to overlook their next-door neighbor this time around.

No. 2 Oregon at Virginia (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2): Mark Helfrich made his debut as Oregon coach last week, but does it really count when the Colonels of Nicholls State fell in the Oregon forest while you were still searching for Fox Sports 1? This week, his high-powered Ducks will take their show on the road against a Virginia team that might not be such a pushover, after an upset win over BYU in its opener.