2014 College Football Playoff and bowl projections: Oklahoma gaining ground
If the Sooners can survive a tough road game this Saturday, their College Football Playoff chances are sparkling. In the 32 lesser bowls, we’re finally rid of Michigan.
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
| Rose | No. 2 Oklahoma | No. 3 Alabama | 1/1/2015 | Pasadena, CA |
| Sugar | No. 1 Florida State | No. 4 Oregon | 1/1/2015 | New Orleans, LA |
Only one minor shuffle this week: Oklahoma ahead of Alabama. That’s based on the SEC West looking tougher and tougher, while OU only has one especially challenging road game left: following a bye, this Saturday at TCU. Since we still have no idea how much the Playoff committee will actually value strength of schedule, we have to assume a team’s chances of going undefeated remain by far the biggest factor.
(This shuffle is especially minor because there’s no difference between the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds. The No. 1 seed gets to go to the Playoff bowl that’s closer to its campus, and everything else locks into place without regard for geography.)
Last week’s projections, for posterity.
New Year’s bowls
| Cotton | Baylor | Michigan State | 1/1/2015 | Arlington, TX | At-large |
| Fiesta | BYU | Stanford | 12/31/2014 | Glendale, AZ | At-large |
| Orange | Clemson | Texas A&M | 12/31/2014 | Miami, FL | ACC 1 vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC |
| Peach | East Carolina | Auburn | 12/31/2014 | Atlanta, GA | At-large |
No changes since last week.
Everything else
As always, bid order has only so much to do with win-loss records and conference standings. The most important consideration is how rich everyone can get.
| GoDaddy | Northern Illinois | South Alabama | 1/4/2015 | Mobile, AL | MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2 |
| Birmingham | Memphis | Arkansas | 1/3/2015 | Birmingham, AL | American vs. SEC 9 |
| Alamo | Kansas State | UCLA | 1/2/2015 | San Antonio, TX | Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2 |
| Armed Forces | Houston | Maryland | 1/2/2015 | Fort Worth, TX | American vs. Army/Big 12 7/Big Ten |
| Cactus | Texas | Washington | 1/2/2015 | Tempe, AZ | Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7 (MWC conditional) |
| TaxSlayer | Iowa | South Carolina | 1/2/2015 | Jacksonville, FL | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Citrus | Wisconsin | Georgia | 1/1/2015 | Orlando, FL | Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2 |
| Outback | Ohio State | Missouri | 1/1/2015 | Tampa, FL | Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Belk | Louisville | Tennessee | 12/30/2014 | Charlotte, NC | ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Music City | Virginia Tech | Mississippi State | 12/30/2014 | Nashville, TN | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| San Francisco | Minnesota | Arizona | 12/30/2014 | San Francisco, CA | Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4 |
| Liberty | West Virginia | Ole Miss | 12/29/2014 | Memphis, TN | Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Russell Athletic | Notre Dame | Oklahoma State | 12/29/2014 | Orlando, FL | ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3 |
| Texas | TCU | LSU | 12/29/2014 | Houston, TX | Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Holiday | Nebraska | USC | 12/27/2014 | San Diego, CA | Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3 |
| Independence | Pitt | Louisiana Tech | 12/27/2014 | Shreveport, LA | ACC vs. SEC 10 (C-USA conditional) |
| Military | Temple | Georgia Tech | 12/27/2014 | Annapolis, MD | American vs. ACC |
| Pinstripe | Duke | Penn State | 12/27/2014 | New York, NY | ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7 |
| Sun | Miami | Arizona State | 12/27/2014 | El Paso, TX | ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5 |
| Bitcoin | UCF | Middle Tennessee | 12/26/2014 | St. Petersburg, FL | American vs. C-USA (ACC conditional) |
| Detroit | North Carolina | Indiana | 12/26/2014 | Detroit, MI | ACC vs. Big Ten |
| Heart of Dallas | Rutgers | UTEP | 12/26/2014 | Dallas, TX | Big Ten/Big 12 7 vs. C-USA |
| Bahamas | Marshall | Toledo | 12/24/2014 | Nassau, BS | C-USA vs. MAC 4/5 |
| Hawaii | Western Kentucky | Fresno State | 12/24/2014 | Honolulu, HI | C-USA vs. MWC 2-7 |
| Boca | Florida Atlantic | Ohio | 12/23/2014 | Boca Raton, FL | C-USA vs. MAC 4/5 |
| Poinsettia | San Diego State | Navy | 12/23/2014 | San Diego, CA | MWC 2-7 vs. Navy |
| Miami Beach | Cincinnati | NC State* | 12/22/2014 | Miami, FL | American vs. BYU |
| Camelia | Akron | Arkansas State | 12/20/2014 | Montgomery, AL | MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3 (ACC conditional) |
| Las Vegas | Utah State | Utah | 12/20/2014 | Las Vegas, NV | MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 6 |
| New Mexico | UTSA | Nevada | 12/20/2014 | Albuquerque, NM | C-USA vs. MWC 2-7 |
| New Orleans | UL Lafayette | Colorado State | 12/20/2014 | New Orleans, LA | Sun Belt 1 vs. MWC 2-7 |
| Potato | Bowling Green | Boise State | 12/20/2014 | Boise, ID | MAC 2 vs. MWC 2-7 |
* Filling an unfilled spot.
Leaving us this week: Boston College, which lost a projected win at home to Colorado State; Florida, with a game at Tennessee suddenly looking like a loss; Michigan, which is horrible; and Oregon State, which I have going 7-5, but without anywhere to put it -- the Pac-12 doesn’t have enough bids, and almost every other conference fills its spots this time around. Also crowded out is ULM.
Joining: Maryland and Rutgers, both of which get to play Michigan; NC State, which only needs two more wins, just played Florida State tough, and gets Wake Forest at home (in other words, it only needs one more win); and Temple, finally emerging from the AAC’s big potential 5-7 cluster.
Pitt plummets after losing to Akron, Boise State’s no longer the MWC champ after falling at Air Force, the Big Ten gets a decent reorganizing, and other gentle tweaks abound. This week was not one for big moves.
Your turn!
What have I horribly botched here?
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