I was quite a bit higher than most on Oklahoma State heading into the 2014 season. I was adamant in putting the Cowboys in the Big 12’s top tier alongside Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State. In the Cowboys’ 2014 preview, I said things like, “Past success predicts future success,” and this:
Florida State’s new questions after the Oklahoma State surprise
Florida State’s tight win over Oklahoma State both confirmed some suspicions and raised some new questions: do we need to worry about FSU’s run efficiency? Is OSU’s defensive line just really good? Can FSU really not find a better punter?
OSU returns an experienced quarterback, its leading rusher, three 200-yard receivers, six offensive linemen with starting experience, most of a strong defensive line, and, perhaps as importantly, both coordinators. They still have T. Boone money. They were one of the best teams in the country after November 1 last year.
This isn’t an “I saw Saturday coming” boast, by the way. I still thought OSU would lose by three touchdowns to Florida State.
The ‘Pokes most certainly did not lose by three touchdowns, and now we have to figure out why. Does Florida State’s closer-than-expected 37-31 win over OSU say more about the Cowboys or the Seminoles?
First, let’s figure out how the game was so close in the first place.
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Key stat No. 1: Offensive success rate
Overall success rate: FSU 36.6%, OSU 32.9%
Rushing success rate: OSU 31.7%, FSU 27.6%
Passing-downs success rate: FSU 35.7%, OSU 26.1%
Success rate, second and third quarters: OSU 39.5%, FSU 35.1%
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Efficiency is king in college football. In FSU’s 2013 national title season, the Seminoles’ success rate, not including garbage time, was 54.5 percent, good for No. 2 nationally. They were below 42 percent just once (37.8 percent against Florida).
Against Oklahoma State, they produced a lower success rate than at any point in 2013. The passing game was decent in this regard (success rate: 42.9 percent; Jameis Winston's completion rate: 62.5 percent), and Rashad Greene more than lived up to offseason predictions (18 targets, 11 catches, 203 yards, the game-clinching score, and four penalties drawn on OSU cornerback Ashton Lampkin).
But the running game was abysmal. Barely a quarter of FSU’s run plays were deemed successful, and those that did succeed were in part because of Winston.
Running back Karlos Williams entered 2014 with some hype after averaging 8.0 yards per carry in a backup role last season. With a devastating passing game and just about the most experienced line imaginable (five players with starting experience, 114 career starts), he is expected to post big numbers as the feature back. But Oklahoma State's defensive line constantly won the battle against FSU's offensive line, and Williams was forced to make moves in the backfield. Of his 23 carries, 15 gained two or fewer yards; his success rate: 17.4 percent.
There was a lot of this.
And this.
Oklahoma State will never lack for speed, and it was not a surprise that the Cowboys were able to pursue well on rushing plays strung out wide. But while I think pretty highly of their line, I was surprised at the ease with which they were able to clog the inside run plays.
OSU ends Emmanuel Ogbah (the Big 12's defensive player of the week) and Jimmy Bean were regularly in the backfield, combining for four tackles for loss and two sacks). Ogbah broke up two passes as well. FSU won enough battles to win the game, but Ogbah and Bean defeated offensive tackles Cameron Erving and Bobby Hart on the night.
Luckily for FSU, Oklahoma State's own success rates were even worse, at least in the first and last quarters. And for all of caffeinated OSU quarterback J.W. Walsh's strengths (most of which involve speed), he's probably not going to be much of a passing-downs magician, especially against good defenses. His judgment and decision-making are fast but often flawed. He made a terrible read on Andrews' interception, which dug the Cowboys an early 10-0 hole, and he was pretty constantly toeing the "This Is Spinal Tap" line between bravery and stupidity.
Of course, with Walsh’s mistakes, he still averaged a decent 6.8 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) and 6.5 yards per carry, and he still had the Cowboys in position to almost steal a win in the fourth quarter. And with just a touch more consistency from the Cowboys’ offense, the Seminoles would have been in a world of trouble.
Key stat No. 2: Field position
Average starting field position: OSU 32.5, FSU 28.8
Average starting field position, first three quarters): OSU 29.9, FSU 22.7
Net yards per punt: OSU 39.7, FSU 29.4
Net yards per kickoff: OSU 39.7, FSU 29.4
When your success rates aren’t impressive, that means that not only are you stalling out more frequently, but you’re more likely to do it on your side of the field.
FSU went three-and-out twice, threw an interception from its 29-yard line, and punted from its 26, 30, 38, 40, and 42. Combine that with shoddy punting, and you've got field position issues. Embattled punter Cason Beatty never topped 39 yards on any of his five punts, and while you can get away with that if you're downing the opponent inside its 10 or 15, only one of his punts went deeper than OSU's 25. That one was low and returnable, and OSU's electric JUCO transfer Tyreek Hill returned it.
(With a 28-yard punt return, a 46-yard kick return, eight carries for 44 yards, and six catches in seven targets for 62 yards, Hill lived up to expectations in his first FBS game.)
Punting sacrifices possession for field position, but OSU gained 10 more yards of field position on its punts than FSU did, and that adds up. OSU’s Kip Smith had punts fair caught or returned to FSU’s 6, 10, 11, and 16. The Cowboys’ offense started slowly, but field position bought the ‘Pokes time.
And here’s where offensive inefficiency hurts you twice: inefficiency leads to bad field position, and inefficiency prevents you from being able to dig out of bad field position.
Key stat No. 3: Finishing
Scoring opportunities (drives with a first down inside the opponent’s 40): FSU 8*, OSU 7
Points per opportunity: OSU 4.4, FSU 3.8
* This includes FSU's final possession, in which the Seminoles were simply trying to run out the clock, but it does not include Nate Andrews' first-quarter pick six, as the offense never had possession.
Looking only at points scored by offenses, OSU outscored FSU, 31-30, thanks to better execution near the goal line. FSU settled for three field goals and turned the ball over once in scoring position; OSU settled for two field goals (missing one) and scored four touchdowns. If Winston wasn’t doing something superhuman, either by breaking tackles and leaping over them ...
... or planting a 99-mph fastball into Rashad Greene's stomach ...
... FSU was struggling to finish.
A lot of this goes back to run efficiency. Karlos Williams rushed eight times inside OSU's 40 and gained 11 yards. Mario Pender added in an 11-yard touchdown run, but even including Pender, that's a 2.4-yard average from the running backs during scoring opportunities.
New questions
Okay, so from a cold, emotionless, statistical standpoint, we know how and why OSU nearly pulled the upset. What does that do for us 60 minutes into a 12-hour regular season?
It’s hard to know what to do with surprising developments early in the season. If we suspect something, and then we see it in Week 1, it’s confirmation. We suspected that Winston was a pretty good quarterback, to put it lightly, and despite two interceptions, he proved that with his incredible touchdown run and arm strength, not to mention the fact that head coach Jimbo Fisher was comfortable allowing him to throw the ball late in the fourth quarter. We suspected that Rashad Greene was outstanding, and that OSU’s Hill might be the real deal, and they both looked the part.
But if we see something we didn’t expect, it’s not like it’s time to develop new conclusions. It’s not like Karlos Williams needs to be benched or the FSU line is disappointing. Hell, it’s not like we know for sure that OSU is now going to have one of the best defensive lines in the country either. It’s just that now we have new questions to ask. How long do we have to wait for answers?
September 13: UTSA at Oklahoma State. OSU gets FCS’ Missouri State this week, so we have to wait another week to see if our new suspicions about the Cowboys are true. On September 13, when UTSA comes to Stillwater, OSU should get the win, but the amount of struggle could be telling.
Can the Cowboys’ defensive front dominate one of the most experienced offenses in the country? Can a UTSA defense that forced six Houston turnovers last Friday night punish Walsh for his hyperactive mistakes?
The result shouldn’t be in question, but the game should be helpful and descriptive when it comes to figuring out what to make of the ‘Pokes.
September 20: Clemson at Florida State. FSU also gets a payout game this weekend against The Citadel, then gets a week off before hosting Clemson. If the Seminoles really are going to struggle up front and/or on the ground this year, and if Saturday wasn’t simply a case of FSU being “too relaxed in practice,” we’ll get a good idea then.
Clemson’s defensive front couldn’t handle Georgia’s running game, but Georgia’s running game might be one of the best in the country this year. The Tigers are experienced and aggressive, and if FSU is prone to run problems, they’ll be evident then.
September 27: Florida State at NC State. Granted, the Wolfpack don’t have much to offer against FSU. And granted, we don’t need further confirmation to understand that FSU’s punting game isn’t very good. But Bra’lon Cherry is a pretty good punt returner; he’s averaged 11.3 yards per return in his short career. There’s at least a little bit of a chance that FSU stagnates against NC State and wavers in the field position game ... for a while, at least.
Florida State didn’t look like the top team in the country on Saturday, and Oklahoma State didn’t look like a team that is supposed to struggle with youth and a thin two-deep. It was one of the most surprising results of Week 1, and it will take a few more weeks for us to figure out if we were actually supposed to be surprised or not.
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