Friday bowl schedule and the big question in all 4 games
Friday brings us the Interim Bowl in Fort Worth, the Second-and-Long bowl in Jacksonville, the Farewell Bowl in San Antonio, and the Disappointment Bowl in Tempe.
Who shows up in Fort Worth?
Armed Forces Bowl (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Houston Cougars (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6)
The first game gives us a double dose of interim coaches. Houston defensive coordinator David Gibbs steps in for fired head coach Tony Levine, while Pitt offensive coordinator will fill in on the Panthers’ sideline after head man Paul Chryst left for Wisconsin.
If experience playing for interims means anything (and it almost certainly does not), give Pitt the edge; fifth-year Panther seniors are now under their third interim. But dual interims make motivation a huge question mark.
On paper, Pitt holds a solid advantage over a Houston team that desperately needs turnovers to win games. But if only one team shows up in the right state of mind, that team wins.
If both show up ready to roll (or neither, I guess), the main question becomes, "What in the world does Houston do about James Conner?" Pitt's offense ranks sixth in Rushing S&P+, mostly because of Conner, who averages 23 carries and 140 yards per game. Quarterback Chad Voytik will tuck and run (or throw to one-man receiving corps Tyler Boyd) enough to keep you honest, but Conner has been outstanding. And Houston, with a defense that ranks 111th in Rushing S&P+, might not be able to stop him.
Who avoids third-and-long disaster?
Taxslayer Bowl (3:20 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (6-6)
The SEC has had a confusing bowl season. The West, with its season-long superiority and seven bowl teams, went 2-5; the inferior East has gone 3-0 with wins over teams ranked No. 16 (Georgia over Louisville), No. 24 (South Carolina over Miami), and No. 35 (Missouri over Minnesota) in F/+. And it will move to 4-0 if No. 55 Iowa’s offense can’t avoid passing downs.
The Hawkeyes have an identity problem. With two quarterbacks -- junior Jake Rudock, with a little bit of sophomore C.J. Beathard -- Iowa has a slightly underrated pass offense. Iowa ranks 55nd in Passing S&P+ and a dreadful 102nd in Rushing S&P+, but the Hawkeyes run the ball frequently while averaging 3.8 yards per carry on first downs.
That creates a lot of passing downs, and while Rudock and junior receiver Tevaun Smith (22 catches, 301 yards, 9.1 yards per target on passing downs) have bailed themselves out, Tennessee's got a vicious pass rush, one that ranks fifth in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate. Freshman end Derek Barnett logged 10 sacks, and junior linebacker Curt Maggitt finished the regular season with 11. Iowa might not get away with falling into second-and-9 or third-and-7 without sacks and/or turnovers.
Of course, the same could be said when Tennessee has the ball. The Vols have made almost every opposing pass rush look like it has Barnett and Maggitt. The Vols rank 119th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and while the sack numbers have improved since sophomore Joshua Dobbs took over behind center, Iowa's got a decent pass rush. End Drew Ott and tackle Louis Trinca-Pasat have combined for 14 sacks, and if the Iowa secondary is able to control Tennessee receivers Pig Howard and Marquez North, Dobbs might be running for his life.
Who stops whom in San Antonio?
Alamo Bowl (6:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) vs. No. 14 UCLA Bruins (9-3)
Kansas State’s offense ranks 16th in Off. F/+; UCLA’s defense ranks 49th in Def. F/+.
UCLA’s offense ranks seventh; KSU’s defense ranks 51st.
KSU’s tempo should keep this from reaching massive shootout, and both defenses have looked great at times -- KSU allowed 4.7 yards per play and 20 points to Auburn, while UCLA allowed 13.5 points per game and 3.6 yards per play to Arizona and USC in November. But there have been glitches, and one should expect quite a few scores, whatever the pace.
These styles fit well together. Both rely on efficiency offenses that fail to produce big plays, and both employ bend-don't-break defenses, with sketchy success rates and quality big-play prevention. That will put an emphasis on patience and execution. There will be plenty of six-yard gains, but if one offense breaks a couple of big plays, that might be enough to make the difference. Can UCLA keep tabs on KSU's one explosive threat, receiver Tyler Lockett? Can KSU prevent Jordan Payton or Eldridge Massington (combined: 14.4 yards per catch) from slipping downfield? Can either run game generate more than a few yards?
This is the main event of Friday’s schedule. It will give us an opportunity to say goodbye to two of the game’s more likable stars: Lockett and UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley.
Lockett emerged as a fun return threat in 2011 and morphed into one of the game’s steadiest receivers, catching 174 passes for 2,613 yards (and counting) in 2013-14 and scoring 33 touchdowns (and counting) in his career.
Hundley has announced that he will leave for the NFL Draft after three years as UCLA’s starter. Aside from injury, he has been at the helm for the entire Jim Mora era; he will likely cross the 10,000-yard mark for career passing yards (he’s 170 away), he has completed 68 percent in three years, and he stands at 1,651 career rushing yards with 102 combined touchdowns. He has been a pro-style dual-threat quarterback of sorts, one with accuracy, good decision-making, and wheels. And both he and Lockett should do fun things in their final appearances.
Who gets to be happy?
Cactus Bowl (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Washington Huskies (8-5) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6)
Both Washington and Oklahoma State followed up on strong seasons with disappointing 2014 campaigns. They ranked in the F/+ top 20 a year ago and combined to go 19-7, and while Washington could match last season’s nine-win total with a Cactus Bowl win, not every nine-win season is equal. In 2013, Washington took down five bowl teams and lost only to four high-quality ranked teams (Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State, and Stanford, who combined to go 42-12); in 2014, the Huskies have beaten one bowl team (Illinois) and narrowly defeated Hawaii and Eastern Washington, and while four of five losses again came to ranked teams, only one was by fewer than 14 points.
OSU suffered a steeper dropoff. After going 10-3 and ranking eighth in F/+, the 'Pokes rank 68th and needed a miraculous punt return score against Oklahoma to force overtime and score a sixth win. Their five Big 12 losses came by an average score of 40-14, and the player who scored said miraculous punt return, Tyreek Hill, was booted the week after Bedlam because of an ugly domestic assault charge.
Good feelings have not been in abundance for either, but both now have chances to finish on a relatively happy note.
For OSU, hope begins with Mason Rudolph, the freshman quarterback who filled in for the maddeningly inconsistent Daxx Garman (himself starting in place of injured J.W. Walsh). Rudloph was thrown in by a desperate Mike Gundy against Baylor, and he held his own, throwing for 281 yards with two scores and two picks. And while Hill made the most memorable Bedlam play, Rudolph completed 19 of 35 for 273 yards in the one. Washington has an active front seven but a passive secondary. If he can dodge a pretty good Husky pass rush and figure out where do-everything linebacker Shaq Thompson is, he can find receivers.
Washington is just going to run. Quarterback Cyler Miles has had moments -- he produced a passer rating of 189.0 or higher in three of his last seven games -- but only one of his top six targets has produced even 13.0 yards per catch. If John Ross isn't stretching a defense, nobody is, and the game comes down to Miles' legs and those of two running backs: semi-efficient freshman Lavon Coleman (4.1 yards per carry, albeit with a decent 36 percent of his carries gaining at least five yards) and all-or-nothing sophomore Dwayne Washington.
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