Bowl season brings a strange set of traditions. The festivities begin with mid-December games in Albuquerque and New Orleans. (And the game in New Orleans always features UL-Lafayette.) We visit Hawaii on Christmas Eve. We say hello to Shreveport the week after Christmas.
2 key matchups for Arkansas State vs. Toledo, the season’s second-to-last bowl
Kareem Hunt and Michael Gordon are two of the best mid-major running backs in the country. They could put on a show in Sunday night’s GoDaddy Bowl (9 ET, ESPN).
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My favorite random tradition: the second-to-last game of the college football season takes place on a Sunday night in Mobile following a day of NFL playoffs. And for the fourth consecutive year, it will feature an Arkansas State squad either wrapping up its first season under [Random Coach] or playing for an interim after [Random Coach] left for another job.
Thus far, Blake Anderson hasn’t left. After a 7-5 first season in Jonesboro, it appears he might become the first coach to return to ASU since Steve Roberts came back for his ninth in 2010. Since then, the Red Wolves hired Hugh Freeze, went 10-3, and lost him to Ole Miss. They replaced him with Gus Malzahn, went 10-3, and watched him leave for Auburn. They brought in Bryan Harsin, went 8-5, and watched him leave for Boise. A win over Toledo would give ASU fourth consecutive season with eight or more wins despite constant turnover.
Toledo, meanwhile, is looking for a third nine-win campaign in four seasons. The Rockets have already wrapped up a fifth year of seven or more.
This is the last FBS game for eight days and the second-to-last for eight months. Your withdrawal symptoms will be worse if you don’t watch. Here are two matchups that could make this game pretty interesting, and not just in a junkie-needing-a-hit way.
GoDaddy Bowl (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Toledo Rockets (8-4) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5)
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Hunt and Swanson vs. a perilous ASU D
Arkansas State's defense has been decent at rendering teams inefficient; the Red Wolves rank 106th in IsoPPP (explosiveness) but a healthy 58th in Success Rate (efficiency). But while Toledo might not be in position to take advantage of ASU's big-play glitches, the Rockets have one of the most efficient offenses in college football. The Rockets are 16th in Success Rate, and most of that stems from an awesome one-two punch of sophomore Kareem Hunt and freshman Terry Swanson.
Hunt battled an ankle sprain and missed three games but rushed for 100 yards in all nine games he played. He went for 148 yards in 15 carries against a strong Missouri front, and he torched Bowling Green for 265 yards in 30 carries.
Hunt’s injury opened the door for Swanson to get experience. The freshman from Aliquippa, Pa., gained 124 yards in 17 carries against Iowa State and 732 yards in just 9.4 carries per game. This was a devastating combination, one that might be too much for ASU.
The key here could be negative plays. Toledo prevents them -- the Rockets offense ranked 12th with only a 14.6 percent stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) -- but ASU has been solid, ranking 41st on defense at 21.1 percent. Unfortunately, their leading TFLs guy, freshman Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, is injured. Bandit Chris Stone and weakside linebacker Xavier Woodson will have to play at a high level.
Toledo vs. big plays
Arkansas State's offense was an interesting combination: extreme pace plus a reliance on big plays. The Red Wolves have not been efficient, with a line that doesn't open many holes for running backs Michael Gordon and Johnston White and quarterback Fredi Knighten (107th in Adjusted Line Yards).
But when Gordon and Knighten find open field, they take full advantage. Gordon and Knighten have each had 11 runs of 20-plus yards, tied for 31st. Gordon’s seven runs of 30-plus are sixth.
Toledo's run defense is a strength. The Rockets' defense ranks 105th in Passing S&P+, but it's 46th in Rushing S&P+. Knighten has had success throwing -- 2,874 yards, 61 percent completion rate, 19 touchdowns to seven interceptions -- but it comes from a run-first approach. They run to set up the pass, and if if Knighten's facing too many passing downs, then a solid Toledo pass rush comes into play. The Rockets rank 26th in Adj. Sack Rate, powered by diversity: tackle Orion Jones leads with six sacks, but five other players had between two and 4.5.
Like a lot of mobile quarterbacks, Knighten is sack prone. If ASU can't avoid passing downs, the Red Wolves will be fully dependent on big plays from Gordon, Knighten, and big-play freshman receiver Dijon Paschal (38 catches, 665 yards) to keep up with a Rockets offense that should break 30 points.
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