The Notre Dame-Clemson winner will be a top Playoff contender, but a flawed one

This week gives us two battles of F/+ top 10 teams: No. 1 Alabama at No. 7 Georgia and No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 4 Clemson (Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC).

From a national title perspective, the former is probably the more significant matchup, if only because a second loss would almost certainly knock the Crimson Tide out of the Playoff race. Georgia can probably survive a loss with hopes intact.

So could each of the two teams facing off in Death Valley on Saturday night. This is heartening for both, considering epic rain is likely to create plenty of sloppiness and awkwardness. You’d hate for your title chances to end playing in a game that, if conditions are poor enough, only somewhat resembles football.

We’ve already learned a decent amount about both of these teams. Clemson survived a Thursday night road test against a still-solid Louisville, and we’ve already seen Notre Dame thrash Texas, render a strong Georgia Tech offense ineffective, and survive an everything-goes-wrong trip to Virginia with a late score. The Irish are battle-tested, and thanks to the schedule, they’ll have opportunities for more big wins -- USC on Oct. 17, at Stanford on Nov. 28 -- if they slip up at Clemson.

For every team, red flags have emerged by the time you hit October. The best teams have enough strengths to overcome them. What are the biggest red flags for Clemson and Notre Dame, the things that could eventually eliminate them from title contention?

IsoPPP is a way to measure the magnitude of the big plays you make; right now, Clemson ranks 94th overall in IsoPPP -- 111th rushing, 76th passing.

The Tigers have managed just 15 gains of 20-plus yards (95th in the country, though that part is hampered by the fact that they’ve only played three games) and just two of 40-plus. Artavis Scott and Charone Peake are responsible for those two big gains; take those two receptions out, and they’re averaging 7.9 yards per catch.

Running back Wayne Gallman and quarterback DeShaun Watson have combined to create one of the more efficient backfields in football. Both are gaining at least five yards on more than 50 percent of their carries -- and are rarely gaining more than that.

Efficiency is the most important trait of a college football offense, and despite starting a green line and losing star receiver Mike Williams in the first game, Clemson’s offense, led by a healthy Watson, has proven perfectly efficient. But big plays cover up mistakes, and even the most efficient offense is only going to be so effective when forced to take 12 snaps to score.

Considering the strength of the two teams playing through Hurricane Joaquin, big plays will give us a weakness vs. weakness matchup.

Despite (or perhaps because of) strong efficiency numbers, Notre Dame’s defense is giving up awfully big big plays. The Irish rank 112th in defensive IsoPPP, 108th in rushing, 99th in passing. They have allowed nine gains of 30-plus yards in four games (91st in FBS). Last Saturday, UMass managed gains of 16, 17, 18 and 83 on the ground and 16, 21, 21, 25, 33 and 56 through the air.

This is not Bob Diaco’s bend-don’t-break defense. Second-year coordinator Brian VanGorder has brought a much more aggressive style, and for the most part it’s paying off. The Irish rendered a good offense like Georgia Tech’s inefficient and are bringing havoc with their linebackers (Jaylon Smith leads with 4.5 tackles for loss and three passes defensed) and defensive backs (KeiVarae Russell and Cole Luke: 3.5 TFLs, one interception, six break-ups).

Clemson’s defense ranks No. 1 in Rushing S&P+. That is incredible considering what the Tigers had to replace: six of their top seven linemen and each of their top two linebackers.

But end Shaq Lawson (5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks) and so many of last year’s reserves have stepped up: end Kevin Dodd (2.5 TFLs), linebacker B.J. Goodson (15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFLs), tackle Carlos Watkins (2 TFLs), etc. It’s early, and iffy depth could take the Tigers’ front seven down a few notches, but coordinator Brent Venables has pulled off a magic trick up front.

That said, the secondary, which was supposed to be the anchor despite losing two starters of its own, has been only decent. The Tigers are active in the back -- safeties T.J. Green and Jayron Kearse have combined for 5.5 TFLs and four passes defensed -- but the glitches have been significant. Louisville was able to complete passes of 17, 23, 37 and 55 on second-and-long, which hints at potential difficulties against opponents with better passing games. (Notre Dame qualifies as such a team, though we’ll see how much playing in torrential rain affects the play-calling.)

Yes, Clemson picked off two passes and sacked Louisville quarterbacks five times. Again, this is more about potential problems, not definitive ones.

Good news: Notre Dame ranks first in the nation in Passing Downs S&P+! Bad news: The Irish are facing a lot of passing downs! That can work against defenses like UMass’ and Georgia Tech’s; it will be harder to pull rabbits out of hats against defenses like those of Clemson, Temple, Boston College and Stanford.

Notre Dame’s standard downs success rate is 50.6 percent so far, not awful, but only 50th in the country. Passes to anyone other than Will Fuller are averaging only 10.4 yards per completion, and while negative plays aren’t a huge issue, inefficiency has crept in.

Quarterback DeShone Kizer has been absurd in passing situations; he’s 11-for-17 for 218 yards on all third downs, but he’s 8-for-10 for 146 on third-and-7 or more. When you’ve got Fuller, you’ve got one heck of a bailout option. But good defenses are not going to let you off the hook quite as easily.