Clemson vs. Duke is the most likely ACC Championship, but Week 8 could change a lot

College football’s Week 8 slate might be underwhelming compared to last week’s set of blockbusters, but it’s getting a bad rap.

We’ve got two fascinating Pac-12 games in Cal-UCLA and Utah-USC -- in both instances, the Los Angeles home team is unranked and a three-point favorite over a ranked (and in Utah’s case, highly) visitor. In the SEC, we’ve got the Third Saturday in October (Tennessee-Alabama), and we’ve got two desperate ranked teams (Texas A&M-Ole Miss). We’ve got one of the most fascinating styles-make-fights battles of the year in WKU-LSU. We’ve got ... Ohio State-Rutgers.

Okay, so the depth of big-time battles is lacking. But within the ACC, we might have the most interesting Saturday of the season. Week 8 will tell us who’s in the running.

The Atlantic race is virtually set: in Week 10, Clemson will host FSU, and the winner will almost certainly take the crown. But the Coastal is a fascinating hodgepodge, a division for which the standings are nearly upside down compared to what we expected. Duke, Pitt and North Carolina are a combined 7-0 in conference play, while Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are a combined 1-6.

Teams like Louisville and NC State must be ruing their divisional luck.

In the nonsensical drawing of the Coastal and Atlantic divisions, they were placed in the one with Clemson and FSU. Both currently rank ahead of every Coastal team but Duke, but the Cardinals have already lost to the Tigers and Seminoles, and NC State is projected to do the same.

That renders them also-rans, and thanks to what is now a rather unimpressive season-opening loss to Auburn, Louisville’s got some work to do just to reach bowl eligibility.

Clemson’s recent form (and everybody else’s lack thereof) has vaulted the Tigers to No. 1 in both the S&P+ and overall F/+ rankings. FSU still ranks a healthy seventh, but recent defensive glitches (both Miami and Louisville averaged 6.3 yards per play) have dropped their standing a bit. That gives Clemson a strong projected edge in the teams’ Nov. 7 meeting.

But it goes without saying that the Seminoles will be ready to give the Tigers a strong fight. And it would take some spectacular craziness -- a Week 8 upset and a loss to NC State, for instance -- to craft a scenario in which the winner of FSU-Clemson doesn’t win the Atlantic.

For Duke, this is far from uncharted territory. The Blue Devils won the division two years ago and were in the driver’s seat last season. But they were forced to undergo a swift overhaul. Gone were quarterback Anthony Boone, leading receivers Jamison Crowder and Issac Blakeney, and All-American guard Laken Tomlinson. The offense has fallen into a “your best offensive player is your punter” funk.

The defense, though? Incredible. The Blue Devils ranked 68th in Def. S&P+ with one of the worst run defenses in the country. This year, despite losing a large portion of their front seven, they are a stunning third in Def. S&P+,12th against the run, seventh against the pass. Coordinator Jim Knowles built a remarkable unit around All-American safety Jeremy Cash, who, from his safety position (really more of a hybrid linebacker-safety, but still), is on pace for about 25 tackles for loss.

Duke’s astounding defense and one of the nation’s best special teams units have led the Blue Devils to a 5-1 start, but the scattershot offense (99th in Off. S&P+) gives other Coastal teams hope. Duke survived a home contest with a Boston College team that is of the same makeup and must face Miami and Pitt at home, and Virginia Tech and UNC on the road.

Pitt has been simultaneously lucky and unlucky. When kicker Chris Blewitt bombed in a long field goal to beat Georgia Tech, it both moved the Panthers to 5-1 and redeemed their only loss, suffered via long field goal at the hands of Iowa. Pitt nosed by Youngstown State in the opener and has what is probably an unsustainable 4-1 record in one-possession games. But getting to 5-1 after losing all-world running back James Conner just eight carries into the season is remarkable. The Panthers have four virtual tossups left, plus a trip to Duke and a week 10 visit from Notre Dame. The stakes are high, and close-game execution could make the difference between 6-6 and 10-2.

North Carolina disappeared from national consciousness after a season-opening loss to South Carolina. The Tar Heels blew multiple opportunities to seize that game and fell, 17-13. Since, the Heels have rolled. Two FCS opponents (NC A&T and Delaware) have helped, but UNC rolled an underrated Illinois (48-14) and pummeled Wake Forest (50-14). They took down Georgia Tech by seven on the road, and if they get past Virginia this Saturday, they will visit Pitt for a game with far greater consequences than we expected.

Really, Week 8 is about the others. Miami, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech host ranked opponents with redemption at stake.

Miami hosts Clemson at noon. For the first time in about three years, the Hurricanes responded well to a frustrating loss to Florida State. They returned home and took down Virginia Tech, 30-20, to move to 4-2. It is unlikely, but wins over the next two weekends -- against Clemson, then at Duke -- would completely turn things around for Al Golden. S&P+ win probabilities say there’s only about a five percent chance (and a 61 percent chance they lose both games).

Virginia Tech has lost 3-of-4 games. A defense I thought was one of the surest bets in the country has fallen to 31st in Def. S&P+, and while quarterback Brenden Motley has made plays in place of injured starter Michael Brewer, he’s also taken 16 sacks, thrown seven interceptions and fumbled six times.

Brewer’s back, though. He had the Hokies within striking range of Ohio State when he went down with a broken collarbone, and he played in the second half of last week’s loss to Miami. At 1-2 in conference play, Tech might need to win out, but beating Duke at home on Saturday would be a fantastic first step. At 56th in S&P+, the Hokies’ win projections aren’t great, but none of the final four opponents (BC, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia) is invincible. If Brewer gives a shot in the arm, Tech could be back in the race.

Then there’s Georgia Tech. Sigh. The Yellow Jackets have lost four running backs for the season and have been forced to lean on fullback Patrick Skov and freshman slotbacks. The result: an offense that is reasonably efficient but lacks explosiveness. Like Virginia Tech’s defense, the GT offense was once the surest bet in the conference but is only good this year (37th in Off. S&P+). And the defense hasn’t picked up the slack.

The Ramblin’ Wreck has now lost five straight games since destroying Alcorn State and Tulane. Three were by a touchdown or less, and another (at Duke) turned because of special teams. The Jackets aren’t as bad as their 2-5 record would suggest, but they aren’t as good as expected. And since they’ve already lost four conference games, they are almost certainly out of contention in the Coastal.

They can still play spoiler, though. They host Florida State on Saturday, then Virginia Tech and Miami in coming weeks. This losing streak has been so devastating that they need to finish 4-1 just to become bowl eligible. A win over FSU would convert the odds from “virtually impossible” to “difficult.”

If Miami or (especially) Virginia Tech pulls an upset on Saturday, then we could have a four-way race in the Coastal on our hands. But if all goes according to plan, then three specific games will tell the tale: UNC at Pitt on Oct. 29, Duke at UNC on Nov. 7 and Pitt at Duke on Nov. 14.

The ball is in Duke’s court. The Blue Devils are the only Coastal team in the S&P+ top 40, which means the win probabilities are favorable. But Saturday’s trip to Blacksburg could be awfully tricky with Brewer’s return. Lose that, and the odds of a three-way logjam at 6-2 get a lot higher ... at least, if Pitt and UNC take care of business. Pitt’s Saturday trip to face a faulty but improving Orange squad could be tougher than it looks.