When we get to the ACC, there's one reliable mile marker: "talking yourself into North Carolina even though you know better." If I'm convincing myself this is the year North Carolina puts everything together, it must be mid-June, and there must be about 12 weeks left in the offseason.
-- Talking yourself into UNC football is an annual tradition. Is 2015 the year?
UNC football surged under the radar and has a chance to win the ACC
North Carolina is still a work in progress, but the Tar Heels winning streak is at seven games following a 26-19 win at Pitt.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
North Carolina did everyone a favor this year. The Tar Heels’ season-opening loss to South Carolina threw us off the scent and kept us from building too much hype too soon. It allowed them to get to work with minimal scrutiny.
Thursday night’s 26-19 win at Pitt showed us that the work is paying off. UNC rode big plays to a halftime lead, then coordinator Gene Chizik’s defense went to work. The Heels broke up eight passes and sacked Tyler Peterman five times, and while Pitt drew closer, UNC found just enough offense to hold the Panthers at bay.
The result: North Carolina is 7-1 overall and 4-0 in ACC play. The Heels control their conference title destiny, and a home win over Duke next Saturday would give them complete control of the ACC Coastal.
Granted, that’s easier said than done. Duke is a top-15 team per the S&P+ ratings, and UNC only recently entered the top 40. (The Heels will likely climb again after this performance.)
The Tar Heels are a work in progress, but Thursday night in Pittsburgh, they showed us that they are indeed progressing. Here are three notes about UNC moving forward:
Our UNC blog
Our UNC blog
1. Marquise Williams is having himself a year.
Quarterback Williams’ strength and athleticism allow him to wait as long as possible to make plays. The benefit was clear on Thursday. Early in the second quarter, he fended off both pass rushers and a tug at the face mask to remain upright and find Ryan Switzer wide open downfield for a 71-yard touchdown.
With Pitt’s defense desperate for a stop late, Williams rolled to his right on third-and-12, pump-faked multiple times, then threaded the needle to Kendrick Singleton for a 23-yard gain. Two plays later, he rushed up the right sideline for 22 yards to put the Heels in field goal range and eat more clock.
Williams’ stat line was magnificent: 14 of 23 passes for 270 yards, two scores, no picks and no sacks, plus nine rushes for 52 yards. He was completely in control, and against a Pat Narduzzi defense (one that ranked a solid 39th in Def. S&P+), no less. And now he’s thrown for more than 1,600 yards and, not including sacks, rushed for nearly 600.
He doesn’t always look like THAT, mind you. He’s still on pace to throw 11 or so interceptions and take about 17 sacks. But UNC ranked 23rd in Off. S&P+ heading in, and while utilizing his legs, Williams has spread the ball around beautifully. Four receivers had been targeted between 22 and 38 times heading into Thursday, and three (Switzer, Quinshad Davis, Mack Hollins) combined for 10 catches and 231 yards against Pitt.
Williams is still maddening at times, but the great-to-WTF ratio has improved in 2015.
2. You can’t rely on the pass against UNC.
When Chizik took over as Larry Fedora’s defensive coordinator, he inherited a unit that did almost nothing well in 2014. The Tar Heels were bad across the board: 101st in Rushing S&P+, 108th in Passing S&P+, 88th on standard downs, 120th on passing downs.
From a “nowhere to go but up” perspective, Chizik was likely to figure out improvements, and he has ... against the pass. UNC still can’t defend against the run -- 116th in Rushing S&P+ -- but the Heels are preventing big plays, and they’re getting hands on passes.
On Thursday, Pitt running backs Qadree Ollison and Chris James combined for 98 yards on 22 carries, a decent-not-great 4.5 yards per carry. Ollison was efficient, but his longest run was only 10 yards. That, combined with UNC’s early lead, meant the Panthers were forced to beat the Heels through the air, and that’s hard.
Including sacks, Nate Peterman’s 47 pass attempts netted only 239 yards (5.1 per attempt), and nearly half went nowhere. Des Lawrence and M.J. Stewart combined to break up seven passes.
That’s been the story. UNC’s defense only ranks 74th in Passing S&P+, but the Heels have combined big-play prevention (they entered having allowed just 14 passes of 20-plus yards, third in the country) and aggressive hands -- 40 percent of opponent incompletions have come via breakup or interception. An iffy pass rush (excellent against Pitt) has put pressure on the secondary, and it has responded.
UNC’s slate hasn’t pitted this secondary against many good pass offenses, but the Heels are allowing only a 103.6 passer rating, 15th in the country. You better be able to run on UNC.
3. The work has just begun.
It’s easy to say that the UNC-Duke winner is the likely Coastal champ. From an odds perspective, that’s true. But if the Tar Heels manage what should be a virtual tossup, they would not be in the clear yet. In theory, they would still have to go 2-1 down the stretch.
After Duke comes Miami, a talented team that will be playing with an interim coach. Sometimes that provides extra life, and sometimes the team packs it in. Miami’s a wild card, and an athletic one.
After Miami comes Virginia Tech. The Hokies are in a bit of a crisis of their own, but quarterback Michael Brewer is back and Tech has won four of five against the Heels. Confidence won’t be an issue.
Finally comes NC State. The Wolfpack are 1-2 in conference play because of a frustrating loss to Louisville and a road dud against Virginia Tech. But because of their upside -- they’ve played at the 90th percentile or higher in three of their last six games -- they rank quite a bit higher than UNC in S&P+. Though the odds will change by Thanksgiving, at the moment S&P+ gives UNC only a 33 percent chance of winning that game.
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