Michigan State redefined the title race by completely dominating Ohio State in the trenches

Because of the length of a college football season, individual games take on significance that doesn’t exist in other sports. A single football game is two weeks of a baseball season. A football loss isn’t one loss, it’s a seven-game NBA losing streak.

That makes us a little bit crazy. Even if we have a solid perspective on how odds work -- even if we know that having an 80 percent chance of winning a given game means you have a 20 percent chance of losing -- we don’t have the stomach for it. Other teams in other sports are allowed off nights, with minimal consequences. But not here.

Saturday, Ohio State fell victim to the odds. Recent performances by both the Buckeyes and Michigan State suggested that the defending national champions would win comfortably, especially once it was confirmed Spartans quarterback Connor Cook was too injured to play. S&P+, which otherwise had a magnificent week, gave Ohio State a 79.7 percent chance of remaining undefeated. Instead, Michigan State won, 17-14.

No matter how confident you are heading into the stadium, sometimes you pick up an uh-oh vibe pretty early. Maybe a star player gets hurt. Maybe an early bounce gives the opponent free points. Or maybe your team gets dominated in the trenches from the opening snap.

Occasionally, someone will ask me how the use of advanced stats and numbers has changed the way I watch a game. I usually say it has led me to watching line play more. Watching the lines in the first quarter will give you a glimpse into the future. Who’s gaining five yards running instead of three? Who’s facing pass pressure, and who’s got a clean pocket? Even if the skill position players are (or aren’t) coming up big, the tone is set in the trenches, and how you play there doesn’t tend to change much from the first quarter to the fourth.

The example I always give is the 2005 Orange Bowl, the BCS title game between USC and Oklahoma. On the Sooners’ first drive, they went 92 yards in 12 plays to take a 7-0 lead. But on the drive, seven OU rushes (six by Adrian Peterson) gained only 17 yards, and while Heisman winner Jason White completed four of five passes on the drive, he was under constant pressure. And he only had so many rabbits in the hat.

OU’s next 10 drives: Three-and-out, interception, interception, field goal, fumble, three-and-out, punt, turnover-on-downs, interception, three-and-out. USC’s lines were dominant, and the Trojans went on a 55-3 run despite the slow start.

There were no 55-3 runs in Ohio’s cold, windy and rainy capital city. But Ohio State’s title shot took a hit just as hard. It was evident from the start that, between the weather, Cook’s injury and pass rushes, neither team was going to be able to pass. That made each offense’s run game doubly important, and while that’s a battle Ohio State has won almost constantly since Urban Meyer took over (and before Meyer, as well), Michigan State’s defensive line made sure that wasn’t the case.

Buckeye quarterback J.T. Barrett got stuffed by Lawrence Thomas and Shilique Calhoun on the opening play. That set a tone that lingered. Not including one sack, Barrett -- who has had four 100-yard rushing games in his career -- carried 14 times for 52 yards. Ezekiel Elliott, who gained attention/scorn for complaining about play-calling after the game, indeed only carried the ball 12 times ... but those 12 carries gained just 33 yards.

There were no running lanes. At halftime, ABC announcers Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit were imploring the Buckeyes to pass more.

On the rare opportunity Barrett got to throw, he was facing pressure almost immediately. He was sacked only once in 17 pass attempts, but pressure forced a misfire when he overthrew a wide open Braxton Miller late in the first half. His 17 attempts netted the Buckeyes just 38 yards against a Michigan State secondary that has been young and glitchy for much of the season. Ohio State’s offensive line had no answers against the Michigan State line, the line we thought we might see all year but have only caught random glimpses of so far.

I said after Michigan State’s odd loss to Nebraska that it felt like the universe had just decided to make a course correction -- that Nebraska had lost too many close games to lose another, and that Michigan State shouldn’t be undefeated. This game took on the same feel. Ohio State’s dysfunction, tamped down for much of the first 10 games, was no longer allowed to stay hidden.

Ohio State appeared to have found its rhythm after sleepwalking through much of the schedule, but while the defense was dynamite, the offense had been playing merely well. The Buckeyes were piling up the wins and hadn’t lost since September of last season, but the season felt rather joyless, like the last time a Meyer squad was defending a national title (Florida 2009). The universe decided enough was enough.

Despite Cook’s injury, Michigan State played with the control, energy and poise that the defending champ didn’t have. With the game on the line, it was Michigan State’s offensive line moving the pile, Michigan State’s play-callers sticking to their guns (MSU running backs: 33 carries, 155 yards)* and Ohio State’s defenders jumping offsides in key moments.

* Sticking to guns hasn’t been an issue for Michigan State’s play-calling. As mentioned in last week’s preview, the Spartans have been run-heavy all year despite a) having Cook and b) not really running well. Without Cook, MSU ran almost exclusively, and perhaps because of the extra dose of mobility QBs Tyler O’Connor and Damion Terry (combined: 14 carries, 61 yards, not including sacks) brought, it worked just enough.

Michigan State has now pulled off an incredible balancing act, sleepwalking through much of the season and struggling to either run the ball or put games away. The Spartans have also defeated Michigan and Ohio State on the road and control their own destiny in the Big Ten East.

The numbers like the teams that bring a more consistently strong level of play to the table, and because MSU still only ranks 14th in S&P+ at the moment, the odds of beating Penn State and winning the East are a healthy, but not too healthy, 65 percent.

If Penn State pulls the upset in East Lansing, the Ohio State-Michigan winner (Michigan currently has a 61 percent chance) would take the division. That means the odds are, at present, MSU 65 percent, Michigan 21 percent, Ohio State 14 percent. A lot can change in a week, huh?

Eleven years after USC dominated Oklahoma in the trenches, and 17 after Nick Saban’s Michigan State pulled an even more significant upset of a title contender in Columbus, Mark Dantonio’s Spartans changed the national title race. Ohio State’s chances might not be dead yet, but despite flaws, lackluster performances against lesser teams and a frustrating loss in Lincoln not very long ago, Michigan State is very much alive.