2015 Cotton Bowl semifinal picks and predictions: Michigan State would need a shocker to beat Bama

Hey, remember the last time a one-loss Big Ten Champion was an underdog against Alabama in a College Football Playoff semifinal? Alabama fans won’t want to remember that game, but they know from last year’s loss to Ohio State in a national semifinal.

That said, Alabama has been the most statistically dominant team in the country for much of the season, behind a defense that tops the nation in every major advanced statistical category, and a relatively productive offense. While the offense isn’t elite, it’s is led by running back Derrick Henry, who has ridden a major workload to pass Herschel Walker’s single-season SEC rushing record and is an overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Freshman wide receiver Calvin Ridley has turned into a very impressive downfield threat.

Alabama checks in as 10-point favorites with OddsShark, and is the pick from seven of SB Nation’s 10 college football analysts. The Crimson Tide are the pick from ESPN as well.

Michigan State struggled at times early in the season with a lot of injuries in the secondary and on the offensive line. However, the Spartans took down Michigan and Ohio State, both on dramatic endings, to win the Big Ten East, and they sealed the Big Ten Championship with an epic, 22-play drive to beat Iowa. With a healthy Connor Cook and freshman L.J. Scott emerging at running back, MSU has the firepower to keep up with Alabama and find holes in its great defense. However, the Crimson Tide still have more talent.

SB Nation’s Pete Volk explains why he picked Alabama to beat Michigan State:

I picked Alabama because I think its the best team in the field. Michigan State’s offense is good, but Alabama has the best defense in the nation. The Spartans have been playing very well at the right time, however, and a few more miracle Aaron Burbridge catches could change things.