2015 College Football Playoff National Championship odds and picks: Bama the favorite to win it all

Our college football writers panel has crunched the numbers and checked out the matchups, and while the consensus isn’t exactly clear, No. 2 Alabama leads the pack as the favorite in the College Football Playoff.

Four of our 10 writers in our bowl picks roundup rolled with the Tide, while the remaining six were evenly split at two picks each for No. 1 Clemson, No. 3 Michigan State and No. 4 Oklahoma.

The Tide have a 42 percent chance to win it all, going by S&P+ win probabilities, followed by Clemson at 28 percent, Oklahoma at 22 percent and Michigan State at eight percent. Alabama has such a big probability advantage in part because of drawing the Spartans first, as Bill Connelly writes.

An easier (on paper) semifinal matchup means that the Tide have the overall edge. Clemson and Alabama grade out almost equally, and Oklahoma’s not far behind. But since the Tigers and Sooners are flipping a coin to see who gets Bama, that skews the odds in favor of a fourth title for Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama leads the S&P+ rankings, followed by Clemson and Oklahoma with the Spartans coming in at ninth. With the Heisman winner and the best defense in the country, the Tide draw the best first-round matchup against Michigan State, which sets them up well to bring Nick Saban’s fourth national championship back to Tuscaloosa (fifth overall).

Oklahoma and Clemson sets up as the best first-round matchup, and both Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson set up as a decided quarterback advantage over Alabama, but it’s just hard to see anybody moving the ball consistently on the Crimson Tide front, led by superstars A’Shawn Robinson, Jonathan Allen and Reggie Ragland.