Appalachian State’s first-ever bowl opponent has had an impressive season of its own

In this week’s Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody, I briefly and unfairly touched on how a 10-2 finish for Appalachian State almost felt disappointing because of how high the Mountaineers had set the bar midseason.

My logic was simple: seven games into 2015, Scott Satterfield’s Mountaineers had played at a top-30 level. Losing only to top-ranked Clemson, ASU had wrecked Howard, Old Dominion, Wyoming, Georgia State and Louisiana-Monroe by an average score of 45-6. And in what we thought was the Sun Belt’s marquee battle, the Mountaineers welcomed Georgia Southern on a Thursday night, went down 7-0 early, then went on a 31-0 run to cruise to victory.

ASU was an easy Sun Belt favorite, and of the remaining opponents, only Arkansas State appeared like even a slight challenge. But the Mountaineers went into cruise control. They barely survived a home game with Troy, then gave up a 26-0 run to Arkansas State in a 13-point home loss. They rallied, but the damage had been done. The ASU from Jonesboro won the Sun Belt.

Still, it’s hard to apply the word “disappointing” to anything Appalachian State has done since mid-October last year. Since a loss to Liberty dropped them to 1-5 in 2014, the Mountaineers have gone 16-2, 13-1 in conference play. They are still 42nd in S&P+; two years ago, in their final FCS season, they fell to 175th, barely ahead of Georgia State, North Carolina A&T and Duquesne. And now they’re here. While they had to wait a year to go bowling thanks to the NCAA’s silly waiting period for such a thing, they’re now a solid favorite to finish 11-2.

ASU’s getting it done on both sides of the ball. The Mountaineers are one of only four Group of 5 teams (along with Georgia Southern, Navy and Toledo) to rank in the top 50 in both Off. S&P+ (43rd) and Def. S&P+ (48th). Their run-first attack has produced three running backs who combined for 2,330 yards, and in barely 22 pass attempts per game, sophomore Taylor Lamb has still thrown for 2,263 yards.

On defense, they are powered by a pass rush that ranks 10th in Adj. Sack Rate. Big senior lineman Ronald Blair (18 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks) is the star, but there are playmakers at every level, from linebackers Eric Boggs and John Law (combined: 16 TFLs, five interceptions) to cornerback Latrell Gibbs (six interceptions, nine breakups). This is a well-rounded team -- one that is still pretty young, by the way -- and the Camellia Bowl will provide a lovely spotlight.

Appalachian State might be the bigger name this year. But that overshadows one hell of a coaching job Frank Solich did.

Before Solich, Ohio had attended two bowls in its history and none in almost 40 years. The Bobcats’ Saturday trip to Montgomery will be their seventh in 10 seasons.

There’s still a redemption story at play here; the Bobcats had regressed for three straight seasons and had gone just 11-12 against FBS competition in 2013-14. Despite getting wrecked by injury on both sides of the ball in 2015, they still managed to improve both on paper (71st in S&P+) and in the win column. They beat three top-80 teams (Marshall, Akron, NIU) and survived a midseason funk to finish 8-4.

It’s pretty easy to explain that funk. After dealing with injuries at all three levels of the defense, the Bobcats lost star linebacker Quentin Poling, and the dam broke. He was hurt against Western Michigan and missed the two following games, and in those three contests, Ohio allowed 51.3 points per game. Before Poling’s injury, the Bobcats allowed 15.7. After it, they allowed 17.3.

The injury list for Ohio is still incredible. Of the five running backs with at least 10 carries in 2015, four are either questionable or probable, meaning starter A.J. Ouellette will likely carry a large load. Starting tight end Keith Heitzman is battling a knee injury. No. 2 tackler Blair Brown is questionable after missing most of the last two games of the regular season. Starting corner Devin Bass has missed half the season and is expected to miss the bowl. Et cetera.

Depth is beyond precarious, but Ohio has proved it can get things done as long as Poling is around (8.5 TFLs, four sacks, three interceptions, two PBUs). The Bobcats attack the run on standard downs and the quarterback on passing downs, and an unfocused ASU offense might find itself pushed backwards quite a bit.

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

As the higher-rated team, Appalachian State holds quite a few advantages. But you can see how this game could flip depending on how much time either offense is spending on passing downs.

ASU’s offense goes from unstoppable and efficient to plodding when it falls behind schedule. ASU’s secondary grows passive on passing downs, relying on the pass rush to get home and mainly attempting to avoid huge gains.

If reasonably mobile Ohio quarterback Derrius Vick is able to avoid sacks (he hasn’t in 2015), he could find receivers like Sebastian Smith, Jordan Reid and Brendan Cope open and available downfield. And if a thin but active secondary -- led by safety Devin Jones and corner Ian Wells -- can get hands on passes when Lamb is throwing on third-and-long, the Bobcats could flip this game’s script.