Temple-Toledo bowl spotlights 2 of the country’s best mid-majors, both this year and next
The Boca Raton Bowl is this bowl season’s top mid-major showcase. Temple and Toledo are both in the S&P+ top 40, combining to go 19-5. (Dec. 22, 7 ET, ESPN.)
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When you’re a mid-major, your reward for making a good hire is having to make another one. When Tim Beckman left for Illinois at the end of 2011, Toledo promoted offensive coordinator Matt Campbell, who had just turned 32.
Campbell was an interesting combination of small-school mentality (he played at Mount Union) and high-caliber recruiting chops, and he ended up winning nine games in three of four seasons at the Glass Bowl. He couldn’t secure a MAC West title, but he did well.
And now Toledo has to replace him. Campbell bravely took the Iowa State job, and UT elected to again promote from within. Jason Candle is the Rockets’ new head coach after for four seasons as Campbell’s offensive coordinator. It was a predictable hire, but predictable can be good.
Promoting Candle, who will take over for the bowl, means next year starts immediately. But you could forgive Toledo fans for wanting to bask in this year a little longer. Yes, the Rockets fell at home to WMU in the season finale and lost the division title to NIU (to whom they also lost at home). But Toledo was legitimately strong, going 9-2 and beating Arkansas and Iowa State by combining a young, fun offense with a seasoned, stout defense.
Toledo will take the field with most of next year’s offense. Only three seniors are scheduled to start, and while one is quarterback Phillip Ely, Toledo will return multiple QBs with experience, thanks to injury.
While the defense brings plenty of advantages to the table against an inefficient Temple unit, the offense could struggle to stay ahead of schedule. Temple renders you inefficient, and Toledo could find itself reliant on big plays -- from running backs Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson, from receivers Alonzo Russell and Cody Thompson -- to create enough opportunities.
2. It kind of does at Temple, too
The silly season came and went, the coaching carousel spun, but as Temple basks in its first 10-win season and first poll appearance since 1979, the Owls are getting ready for Toledo ... without an interim coach.
Matt Rhule, who has lifted the Owls from two wins to six to 10, was not plucked away by another school. Temple held onto Rhule after winning the AAC East, and his remarkable building process will continue for a fourth season.
This is awesome because, among other things, the Owls are going to return quite a few pieces from this year’s breakthrough squad. There will be key departures, none bigger than those of incredible linebacker Tyler Matakevich (100.5 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, five interceptions, five break-ups) and big lineman Mat Ioannidis (10.5 TFLs, four break-ups). But five of this year’s top seven tacklers are scheduled to return, and players like DB Sean Chandler (5.5 TFLs, four INTs, 10 PBUs) and LB Jarred Alwan (7 TFLs, four forced fumbles) assure the Owls will return star power.
Offensively, Temple has a ways to go, but with the scheduled return of quarterback P.J. Walker (2,737 passing yards) and running back/lightning bolt Jahad Thomas (1,257 all-or-nothing rushing yards), the offense could grow enough to offset defensive regression.
When a team comes out of nowhere to break into national consciousness -- hosting both Notre Dame and GameDay in October qualifies -- it’s viewed as a novelty. While Temple might not be hosting GameDay again any time soon, the Owls will have a chance to put another top-40 product on the field next season. You’ll see why in Boca Raton.
3. Key Stat: Negative plays
Spread: Temple -1
S&P+ Projection: Toledo 26.4, Temple 23.6
Team Sites: Hustle Belt (Toledo), Underdog Dynasty (Temple)
Five biggest advantages (according to the advanced stats)
Toledo
- Run Stuffs (No. 5 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 2 defense vs. No. 117 offense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 11 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 13 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
Temple
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 5 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 4 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 13 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 9 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
The defenses hold the advantage.
Toledo runs frequently on standard downs, and Temple runs slightly more frequently than the national average. But most of each team’s advantages deal with defending the run.
Temple has one of the most efficient run defenses in the country (sixth in rushing success rate, 31st in Rushing S&P+), and Toledo defenders slice into the backfield to stuff the run as well as almost anybody in the country. The Rockets rank fifth in stuff rate, stopping 28 percent of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage.
That could put both offenses in a bind by either forcing them to alter their plans to more pass-happy approaches, or making big stops and forcing a lot of second-and-10s and third-and-9s. The projected score is a conservative 26-24 in Toledo’s favor, but both offenses might need to pass to even cross the 17-point mark.
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