The first ever Bahamas Bowl was one of the wildest of 2014’s bowl season. Western Kentucky bolted to a 49-14 lead, then gave up 34 fourth-quarter points, including an 80-yard Hail Mary hook-and-lateral at the buzzer ... and then stopped the two-point conversion pass to win anyway.
Last year’s Bahamas Bowl featured 97 points. Get ready for more of that.
The goal for Western Michigan and Middle Tennessee might simply be to break serve whenever possible.
So that’s all you have to top, WMU and MTSU. Good luck with that.
1. Still rowing
The 2015 coaching carousel began early and has, to date, led to head coaching changes at 24 FBS schools. With potential silliness still plausible, the dance may not be over yet. But thus far, it looks like P.J. Fleck will be Western Michigan’s head coach for a fourth year.
That’s great news for Broncos fans. Even though Fleck still has work left to do -- WMU is still only 15-10, with no division titles, since starting over at 1-11 in Fleck’s first season -- every year he stays is another year of improved depth.
According to the 247Sports Composite, Fleck is on his way to landing the best recruiting class in the MAC for the third consecutive year. His team was quite young when it surged from 1-11 to 8-5 a year ago, and while WMU perhaps had something better than 7-5 in mind this year, this is still a young team, one that won six of eight to end the regular season.
Fleck’s “Row the Boat” mantra has resulted in an intense style of play. Sometimes that intensity pays off (WMU has 13 plays of 50-plus yards, 11th in the country), and sometimes it doesn’t (the Broncos have allowed 37 gains of 30-plus yards, 118th). But big gains and big breakdowns are equally exciting for an impartial viewer, and at least one team has scored 35 points in all but one WMU game this season.
WMU is favored over MTSU because its offensive advantages are bigger than the Blue Raiders’ respective advantages. But MTSU can generate big plays, and at a tempo much higher than the Broncos’. A Bronco win will require aggressive defenders like cornerbacks Ronald Zamort and Darius Phillips (combined: 4.5 tackles for loss, six interceptions, 31 break-ups) to find their mark. Breakdowns could be even more costly than normal against MTSU.
Of course, that’s not to say WMU’s offense won’t have its big-play opportunities as well. The Broncos have basically a two-man receiving corps, but those two men -- Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis -- have combined for 187 catches, 2,533 yards, and 23 touchdowns. The Middle Tennessee defense should be rather accommodating.
Or, to put this all another way ... there were 97 points in last year’s Bahamas Bowl, and the combined strengths and weaknesses of these teams could result in a score that rivals that total.
2. A young, dynamic Blue Raider offense
For each of the last three seasons (2012-14), Middle Tennessee ranked 87th in F/+, with approximately seven wins each year. This year, the Blue Raiders are 81st and 7-5. Change is constant in the college football ecosystem, but Rick Stockstill just keeps cruising right along at the same altitude. Since surviving a nightmarish 2-10 2011 season with his job intact, Stockstill has established a steady rhythm.
That said, there has to be a little bit of excitement about what Stockstill pulled off this year, simply because of who he did it with. Despite a substandard run game and a pass-first approach, redshirt freshman Brent Stockstill threw for 3,678 yards and 27 touchdowns, completing 100 passes to redshirt freshman Richie James, while protected by a line that featured two freshmen and only one senior.
The defense has its share of both issues and seniors -- MTSU ranks 82nd in Def. S&P+ despite its top four tacklers all being seniors -- but a rebuilt offense found a serious rhythm late in the season. The Blue Raiders averaged between 6.2 and 6.7 yards per play in five of their last six games, all wins. A 2-4 start begot a 5-1 finish, and it appears the team was at its best at the end of the season.
I called Stockstill a "mid-major institution" in the Blue Raiders' 2015 offseason preview. This season both proved that with predictable production and hinted at a higher ceiling with offensive youth. A win over Western Michigan, be it by a 49-48 margin or some other score, would be an even louder hint.
3. Key Stat: Passing downs
Spread: Western Michigan -3
S&P+ Projection: Western Michigan 35.9, Middle Tennessee 27.6
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (MTSU), Hustle Belt (WMU)
| Category | Middle Tennessee offense | Western Michigan defense | Western Michigan offense | Middle Tennessee defense |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 122.4 (21) | 94.5 (85) | 122.1 (22) | 81.6 (120) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 130.5 (11) | 93.8 (88) | 126.1 (15) | 89.9 (98) |
Which defense gets off the field when it has the chance? The answer to this question will decide the game, because neither team is averse to passing and both defenses are averse to actually making stops on passing downs. That WMU can actually run the ball a bit gives the Broncos a bit more diversity in their attack. But in this game, third-and-8 might not provide that much of a disadvantage for respective offenses.
The goal for this game might simply be to break serve whenever possible, even if it means holding opponents to field goals.
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