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Can Tulsa’s big plays ruin Frank Beamer’s Virginia Tech farewell?

Retirements equal ratings, right? Frank Beamer’s final encore in the Independence Bowl should make for a must-watch experience even if a dramatic contrast in styles doesn’t suck you in.

Retirements equal ratings, right? Frank Beamer’s final encore should make for a must-watch experience even if a dramatic contrast in styles doesn’t suck you in.

1. Thanks, Frank

The last time someone other than Frank Beamer was the head coach of Virginia Tech, Dionne and Friends’ “That’s What Friends are For” was Billboard’s No. 1 song. ¡Three Amigos! had just been released. Phil Hartman had just begun at Saturday Night Live. Designing Women had just debuted.

Tech elected to replace Bill Dooley (who had just taken the Wake Forest job) with an alum. Beamer was a defensive back for the Hokies in the late-1960s and had spent 14 seasons at The Citadel and Murray State. He took the Racers to the 1-AA playoffs in 1986, and it would take him quite a while -- six years, in fact -- to get things rolling in Blacksburg.

In Beamer’s seventh season, the Hokies finally made a bowl game. In his ninth season, they logged their first top-10 finish. In his 13th season, they went to the BCS Championship. In his 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, and 25th seasons, they won either 10 or 11 games. And in his 29th year, finally, he wraps up his career.

A coach’s final chapter isn’t normally his best, and to be sure, the last few seasons have been frustrating for Tech. The streak of seasons with double-digit wins ended in 2012, and the Hokies have averaged only seven wins per year since. Tech had to win three of its last four games just to reach bowl eligibility at all this fall. The offense was once again a weakness, and the defense wasn’t quite as elite as it had been recently.

The Hokies did probably play their best ball late in the year, though. Though never particularly efficient, the passing game became a big-play weapon, averaging 13.4 yards per completion over the last four games and 14.6 over the last two. And after allowing more than 30 or more points four times in the first eight games, they did so only once in the last four (and it took overtime to get there).

The late-season rally earned one final victory lap for Beamer; it also created a little bit of circularity. Tech’s first bowl bid under Beamer was a 45-20 win over Indiana in Shreveport. His final bowl will take place in the same stadium, and then he will hand the reins to his replacement, Justin Fuente.

2. Tulsa’s halfway back

Philip Montgomery’s rebuilding has only just begun. After winning 10-plus games four times in six seasons from 2007-12, the bottom quickly dropped out for the Golden Hurricane under Bill Blankenship. They went just 5-19 in 2013-14, and Blankenship was quickly shown the door.

Tulsa had completely lost the script at the end of last season. The offense was bad (95th in Off. S&P+), and the defense was one of the worst in the country (122nd in Def. S&P+). To date, Montgomery has only fixed one side of the ball. The former Baylor offensive coordinator led exactly the type of high-tempo, high-octane attack that you would expect of a Briles clone, and Tulsa’s offensive output quickly improved in terms of both volume (503 yards and 36 points per game) and quality (51st in Off. S&P+). The passing game is explosive -- four of the top five targets average at least 14.3 yards per catch -- and the run game at least doesn’t move backwards. (It doesn’t really move forward very much either.) This is a Brilesian offense, it’s fun, and it could take advantage of a Virginia Tech secondary that is missing corner Kendall Fuller.

Of course, Montgomery hasn’t gotten anywhere with the defense just yet. Under veteran coordinator Bill Young, the Golden Hurricane rank just 115th in Def. S&P+ -- technically improved (mainly because of pass defense) but still an obvious issue. Linebackers Matt Linscott and Trent Martin are active as hell (combined: 30 tackles for loss, seven sacks, eight passes defensed, five forced fumbles), but if they’re not making a play, nobody is.

Tulsa has faced a ton of good offenses in 2015, from Oklahoma’s own version of the air raid, to Tom Herman’s Houston offense, to Memphis’ Fuente attack, to Cincinnati’s more pro-style attack, to Navy’s option. All of these offenses are better than Virginia Tech’s. But having faced better attacks doesn’t necessarily make you capable of stopping something less dangerous. Tulsa might actually be able to suck Tech into a shootout, both because of its offensive ability and, well, its defensive inability.

3. Key Stat: Big plays

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

Spread: Virginia Tech -13.5
S&P+ Projection: Virginia Tech 35.4, Tulsa 23.5
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (Tulsa), Gobbler Country
Five Factors
Category Tulsa offense Virginia Tech defense Virginia Tech offense Tulsa defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.35 (24) 1.42 (117) 1.15 (116) 1.33 (99)
EFFICIENCY 40.1% (87) 34.6% (15) 40.7% (80) 46.1% (107)

Tulsa’s offense isn’t particularly efficient but packs massive big-play potential. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is willing to give up a big gainer or two in the name of forcing three-and-outs and playing tight coverage.

On the other side of the ball, it’s the opposite: Tulsa isn’t good at preventing big plays, and Tech isn’t good at getting them.

So however you want to define it -- 20-yard gains or some other definition -- big plays will determine a lot. Tulsa needs them and can’t give them up. If the Golden Hurricane are going to ruin Beamer’s swan song, they’ll probably do it by connecting on more big plays than they allow.

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