CMU’s passing vs. Minnesota’s defense is a reason to watch the Quick Lane Bowl

The Quick Lane Bowl features two teams that used football as a distraction this year. Minnesota had to deal with the health-related retirement of head coach Jerry Kill, and in his first year on the job, Central Michigan head coach John Bonamego had to fight a battle with cancer in his left tonsil. That the Chippewas made a bowl was a fine achievement, but the best moment of CMU’s season was this:

And now let’s talk about this Detroit distraction.

Minnesota played five teams ranked worse than 45th in the S&P+ ratings this year and went 5-0; the Gophers played seven teams ranked 45th or better and went 0-7. (CMU, by the way: 75th.) Both the wins and losses were close -- eight of 12 games were decided by 10 or fewer points (in part because of a slow tempo), and the Gophers went 4-4 in those games -- though some of the results defied what the stats suggested.

Win expectancy (looking at key stats from a game and saying, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X percent of the time”) said Minnesota probably should have beaten Michigan (win expectancy: 55 percent) and Iowa (77 percent) and lost to Colorado State (40 percent), which would have flipped the Gophers onto the non-APR side of bowl eligibility.

So what held Minnesota back against better teams, besides statistical randomness? Offense, mainly. In replacing star running back David Cobb with a duo of freshmen and All-American tight end Maxx Williams with a sophomore, the Gophers fielded an offense with less consistency. They have fallen from 44th in Off. S&P+ to 55th, and while that doesn’t feel like much of a tumble, there was some slow growth early. Minnesota scored 17 or fewer points in three of its losses and one of its wins, and when the offense picked up the pace, a banged-up defense had already begun to fade.

Freshman Rodney Smith led the running game early but dealt with ankle issues late, ceding the floor to another freshman, Shannon Brooks, who rushed 31 times for 260 yards against Iowa and Illinois. The offense was beginning to play at a high level until a five-turnover dud against Wisconsin.

With a little bit of rest, the defense might be ready to re-assume a high level. Disruptive tackle Steven Richardson missed three games but is likely to play against CMU, and defensive backs Jalen Myrick and Briean Boddy-Calhoun missed a combined five games. If they are able to go (and signs currently point to yes), then the Gophers might have the pass defending chops to frustrate CMU’s pass-first offense.

Central Michigan wasn’t as good as Minnesota, but the Chippewas’ season did take on a similar dichotomy: they went 0-4 against teams ranked better than 60th in S&P+ and 7-1 against teams ranked worse. (Minnesota: 35th.) They punched their weight, and they’re bowling because of it.

Last offseason, CMU was dealt a tricky blow. The Chippewas lost head coach Dan Enos to the Arkansas offensive coordinator job close to National Signing Day and didn’t hire Bonamego as his replacement until after NSD. Bonamego is charismatic, and he’s a CMU alum, but his résumé -- he had been a special teams assistant in the NFL for most of the last 15 years -- didn’t scream “slam dunk hire.” And he wasn’t worried about sexy assistant hires either. Offensive coordinator Morris Watts began his coaching career in 1961. Defensive coordinator Greg Colby was a high school coach in the 1970s.

Still, while this hire may not possess the highest upside, it proved the value of a high floor. CMU beat the teams it was supposed to beat and nearly did more than that -- after beating NIU by 10, the Chippewas lost to WMU by two and Toledo by five.

Colby’s young defense did well, ranking 59th in Def. S&P+ and allowing only 18.5 points per game over the last half of the season. Meanwhile, though CMU couldn’t even pretend to run the ball with any effectiveness, Cooper Rush was insanely efficient in the passing game, completing 67 percent of his passes. Of the five players targeted at least 50 times in 2015, each had a catch rate of at least 64 percent, and three averaged at least 14.5 yards per catch. This is a diverse, fun, aggressive passing game.

CMU is bowling because of a steady passing game and an invasive run defense. The former might not get you very far against Minnesota, but the latter might ground the Gophers’ offense completely.

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

Watts has worked with plenty of successful quarterbacks through the years, but one gets the impression he’d call more running plays if the Chippewas could actually run. CMU ranks a ghastly 120th in Rushing S&P+, so he’s had no choice but to lean on Rush.

One problem: Minnesota opponents come to realize that running the ball is the best plan of action. The Gopher D ranks 71st in Rushing S&P+ but 24th in Passing S&P+, and if their secondary is indeed healthy, they might have the bodies to corral CMU’s deep receiving corps. Can CMU maintain its identity? Meanwhile, can the Chippewas force the Gophers’ offense out of its “run on standard downs, pass on passing downs” comfort zone?